Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[Badger]

http://media.kansascity.com/livegraphics/2018/pdf/KS-GOP-Primary-Survey021518.pdf

Jim Barnett: 8%
Jeff Colyer: 23%
Wink Hartman: 5%
Mark Hutton: 3%
Kris Kobach: 21%
Ken Selzer: 3%
Undecided: 37%

Good poll for Colyer

Agreed - he has a lot of room to grow. This strongly suggests that if Colyer has a good legislative session, he'll be the strong favorite in August.

I’m starting to think the GE may not be as close as expected if he’s the nominee and the legislative session goes well.  The SoS race could be close-ish, but I think it’s probably fool’s gold.  I think the big win for the Democrats in Kansas this cycle will be KS-2 (folks are really underestimating how likely this seat is to flip).  KS-4 will still be closer than it should be, but we had our chance there.

KS-3 could flip, but only if the wave sweeps out Yoder.  He’s a strong incumbent facing decidedly unimpressive opposition (I’m a bit baffled the Democrats couldn’t get a stronger recruit to run here tbh, they kinda dropped the ball), but it is also exactly the type of place where you’d expect Trump to be absolutely toxic to the GOP brand (please correct me if I’m wrong).  Honestly, the district is among the harder ones for me to predict, but right now I think Yoder will eek out a narrow victory (and possibly be a top target in 2020).

Since you’re one of our resident Kansans, I’d be curious to hear your thoughts about these races.

I mostly agree with you, I think the 2nd isn't getting as much attention as it should. The 3rd is still most likely to flip, it voted for Crooked Hillary in 2016. Luckily for Yoder, the strongest candidate had to drop out over sexual harassment accusations. Niermann is probably the favorite in the primary but he'll face a tough challenge against Yoder, the national mood is going to have to get more favorable for Democrats.

The 2nd is almost the opposite - Democrats have a strong candidate but Republicans are scrambling a bit. I honestly have no clue who will win that primary, but whoever it is will have to quickly coalesce the party because at this point, I doubt the winner gets more than 40% of the vote share. However, the district is much more Republican than the 3rd so despite Republican flaws in recruiting, they should still be favored. I would say Fitzgerald is the favorite at this point and he's been controversial in the past.

Isaac, I understand it's part and parcel with being a republican in Kansas, but you do realize that reiterating the phrase crooked Hillary, All Things Considered, ahem, makes you sound like a douche?

[Badger]

I was at Washington Days (our Dem convention) yesterday and saw the shape of the race.

Each candidate had a table, minus the some-guys. They were giving out stickers/buttons and stuff, and Brewer was the only one selling his items. Svaty's table had the most people stopping by (maybe the delicious homemade kolaches helped out...) and there were tons of people walking around with Svaty buttons on. His supporters showed up in force, including me. Ward had the second most supporters there for sure.

During the debate, Svaty clearly won, and fans of other candidates were telling me this. His energy and rhetoric stood out, and he was very specific, especially on the healthcare question. Ward did decent, talked about his record and threw some progressive red meat. Laura Kelly just seemed absent. She was sleepy, stumbling, and didn't seem at all confident. Brewer was okay but fumbled a few questions and didn't say much. In terms of the minor candidates, Jack Bergeson (the kid) was the only one to bring up the sales tax on food and the first to talk about marijuana reform. Robert Klingberg was, well, Robert Klingberg-just said some random things about being an average guy. Arden Andersen, however, was wacko. Dude brought up autism/"growing numbers of developmental disorders" in every speech and appeared on the verge of an antivax rant. What a character...

Overall, I think Washington Days shows that the Democratic frontrunners are Svaty, Kelly, and Ward to a lesser extent. Brewer is rapidly falling behind and it wouldn't shock me if he dropped out. Kelly doesn't seem like she's in the race (Sebelius was working the room before dinner while Kelly sat at her table, even as Ward, Brewer, and Svaty worked the room), but she's got the Sebelius machine. Svaty has energy and a dynamic campaign team, but not necessarily the party establishment. Ward has a lot of progressive Dem activists, but not the money he needs. For that matter, I heard that labor won't be big on Ward because of how he took down Tom Burroughs, who has a lot of standing among Wyandotte County unions, as minority leader a few years back.

Will definitely be an interesting race moving forward!

Tremendous news....I've been saying for months is Svaty's race to win. Not that clown Orman

And how precisely you intend to win with Orman in the race?. He is perfectly able to get at least 15-20% of vote, and mostly - from Democrats (or - very moderate Republicans, whom Democrats badly need to win in this generally Republican state). Without Orman, Svaty, for example, could build that coalition of Democratic and moderate Republican voters, which was generally successfull in 2016 legislative elections. But, with him - i think Colyer (or even Kobach) is favored, simply because there is still a very considerable number of very conservative Republicans to prevail over split opposition.

This. Do grooming toriel candidates pick their lieutenant governor candidate like in most States? And if so any chance one of the Biggie's might work out a deal with Orman to bring him into the flock?

[Badger]

Thanks to tmthforu94 for these continuing updates!

[Badger]

Firefighters union endorses Kobach.

WTF?

[Badger]

What's Kobach's position on RTW? Has he made it known?

Probably a redundant question, but if so, what an epic own goal by the Kansas State Council of Firefighters...

Excellent point.

Though come to think of it, I strongly suspect Kansas is already a right-to-work state, and if so that's not about to change anytime soon even with a Democratic governor. This is about getting piecemeal favors and pension support slipped in the budget.

[Badger]

Dodge City, a majority Hispanic city with 27,000 residents, has one polling place.  It has been moved outside the city limits to a location a mile walk from the nearest bus stop.

https://www.kansas.com/news/business/article220286260.html

I am sure there are legitimate reasons for this that have absolutely nothing to do with racism. /s