Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!
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  Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!  (Read 82340 times)
💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
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« Reply #750 on: September 18, 2018, 10:27:38 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on September 18, 2018, 08:01:23 PM
Quote from: Mondale on September 14, 2018, 02:01:14 PM
Kobach in big BIG trouble

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I wish this kind of thing mattered more.

Agreed. The positive effect that Kobach's relationship with Trump has will really outweigh any sort of negative attention he garners from backbenchers signing a letter saying he is bad.
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
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« Reply #751 on: September 18, 2018, 10:59:21 PM »
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 14, 2018, 02:40:22 PM
Why the f**k is Orman running this year? Does he just want to be Eliot Cutler 2.0?
Because he cares more about himself and his delusions of grandeur more than the good of the state.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #752 on: September 19, 2018, 04:41:33 PM »
Quote from: Pappas, King in the North on September 18, 2018, 10:59:21 PM
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 14, 2018, 02:40:22 PM
Why the f**k is Orman running this year? Does he just want to be Eliot Cutler 2.0?
Because he cares more about himself and his delusions of grandeur more than the good of the state.

Are you excited for governor-elect Kelly's victory? I sure am. Smiley
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #753 on: September 21, 2018, 04:02:13 PM »
The race has honestly been pretty quiet thus far. Kelly has gotten some nice Republican endorsements, but otherwise I don't think the dynamics have changed much since the primary. I don't think I've seen a single ad on the election in a couple weeks, only for the House seats. I'm sure it'll start heating up in a couple weeks.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #754 on: September 21, 2018, 04:08:30 PM »
Quote from: tmthforu94 on September 21, 2018, 04:02:13 PM
The race has honestly been pretty quiet thus far. Kelly has gotten some nice Republican endorsements, but otherwise I don't think the dynamics have changed much since the primary. I don't think I've seen a single ad on the election in a couple weeks, only for the House seats. I'm sure it'll start heating up in a couple weeks.
you got really lucky this year! A competitive gov and congress race! how do you plan to vote?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #755 on: September 21, 2018, 04:20:50 PM »
This race will heat up for sure, AK, AZ ,KS, OH,WI, FL and NV are still tossups
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #756 on: September 25, 2018, 09:16:23 PM »
http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180925/online-poll-of-kansas-governors-race-puts-laura-kelly-slightly-ahead-of-kris-kobach

Online poll has Kelly leading by 2.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #757 on: September 26, 2018, 07:18:49 AM »

Sad/funny that Orman still can't break away from 9%.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #758 on: October 03, 2018, 10:03:01 AM »
Orman is no longer on the air
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #759 on: October 03, 2018, 12:18:23 PM »
Kevin Yoder's campaign released an internal and it shows these #s in KS-03:


Keep in mind this is a Yoder internal that has him up 3, so it's probably an R-leaning sample.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #760 on: October 03, 2018, 12:35:51 PM »
Quote from: Republicans for Nelson on October 03, 2018, 12:34:32 PM
I expected Kelly to be outperforming Davids (and Davis), but not by 8 points. For reference, Davis only won this seat by 3 points in 2014, so this is a pretty good result for Kelly, especially since the poll seems R friendly. I’m sure the “experts” will move this race to tossup anytime now.

Do you have any sources on 2014 KS governor numbers by CD? I couldn't find them anywhere.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #761 on: October 03, 2018, 12:42:56 PM »
OK, I found the 2014 numbers from a search of Miles' twitter feed:
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #762 on: October 03, 2018, 04:28:03 PM »
I would say that this poll across the state would probably lead to Kobach up by a few points, though it is an internal so make of that what you will. Kelly will almost certainly win the 3rd since Davis won it in 2014, I expect the margin to increase quite substantially here for Democrats as Trump's unpopularity in suburbs will bring Kobach/Yoder down.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #763 on: October 03, 2018, 04:37:30 PM »
Quote from: tmthforu94 on October 03, 2018, 04:28:03 PM
I would say that this poll across the state would probably lead to Kobach up by a few points, though it is an internal so make of that what you will. Kelly will almost certainly win the 3rd since Davis won it in 2014, I expect the margin to increase quite substantially here for Democrats as Trump's unpopularity in suburbs will bring Kobach/Yoder down.

For some reason, I had always assumed that Davis had won JoCo in 2014 and was surprised that he hadn't given the race was so close.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #764 on: October 05, 2018, 10:31:20 AM »
Breaking News

Greg Orman (I) will be dropping out of the Governor's race. It is unknown if he will endorse today but he will likely be endorsing Kelly at some point between now and Election Day. Polling suggests that his voters were split between the other two, but I would suspect this will benefit Kelly tremendously. She just became the favorite in this race.

I don't have proof yet, so you will just have to trust me and my sources for now. Announcement should come today.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #765 on: October 05, 2018, 10:36:36 AM »
Quote from: Republicans for Nelson on October 05, 2018, 10:33:09 AM
Praise Jesus. Guarantee you the experts will still keep this as tossup anyhow
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #766 on: October 05, 2018, 10:37:36 AM »
Quote from: Republicans for Nelson on October 05, 2018, 10:33:09 AM
Praise Jesus. Guarantee you the experts will still keep this as tossup anyhow

Well yes, without evidence of how Orman voters react keeping the race a toss-up is the logical thing to do.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #767 on: October 05, 2018, 10:38:42 AM »
Quote from: tmthforu94 on October 05, 2018, 10:31:20 AM
Breaking News

Greg Orman (I) will be dropping out of the Governor's race. It is unknown if he will endorse today but he will likely be endorsing Kelly at some point between now and Election Day. Polling suggests that his voters were split between the other two, but I would suspect this will benefit Kelly tremendously. She just became the favorite in this race.

I don't have proof yet, so you will just have to trust me and my sources for now. Announcement should come today.

Kudos to Orman, if true.
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GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB
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« Reply #768 on: October 05, 2018, 10:39:21 AM »
Pure tossup -> Lean D
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #769 on: October 05, 2018, 10:46:25 AM »
Because it is still a toss-up. I'd just give Kelly the edge now instead of Kobach.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #770 on: October 05, 2018, 10:49:48 AM »
Crossing fingers, this would be great news after all the senate polls we got in the last few days.
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Former Kentuckian
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« Reply #771 on: October 05, 2018, 10:49:55 AM »
Quote from: tmthforu94 on October 05, 2018, 10:31:20 AM
Breaking News

Greg Orman (I) will be dropping out of the Governor's race. It is unknown if he will endorse today but he will likely be endorsing Kelly at some point between now and Election Day. Polling suggests that his voters were split between the other two, but I would suspect this will benefit Kelly tremendously. She just became the favorite in this race.

I don't have proof yet, so you will just have to trust me and my sources for now. Announcement should come today.

THANK GOD
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Virginiá
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« Reply #772 on: October 05, 2018, 11:34:56 AM »
Does he remain on the ballot?
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KingSweden
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« Reply #773 on: October 05, 2018, 11:56:29 AM »
Big if true, thank you for the heads up!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #774 on: October 05, 2018, 11:58:09 AM »
I would imagine there is a big likelihood that ballots have already been printed.
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