Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[IceSpear]

So, do you guys think Kelly will win Saline County? It voted pretty close to the statewide totals in 2014, so I assume only if she wins? I stayed at a motel in Salina for a couple days during my road trip last year (#DriveoverCountry) so I am personally invested in this outcome. Judging from the primary, Svaty would've had a much better chance there.

[Dr. MB]

First District Democratic candidate Alan LaPolice just took a flamethrower to Rep. Marshall's corporate contributions. Pretty good ad if you ask me!! He's raised a decent amount of money, but this district is pretty much impossible for a Democrat to win in. Props to LaPolice for fighting hard.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPXIo3fYRKA&feature=youtu.be

LaPolice seems like a bizarrely good candidate to me, not to mention he somehow managed to pull in over a hundred thousand dollars last quarter. And in such a red district, too! It's a shame his district is so tough but this district is worth keeping an eye on, it just screams "sleeper race" and I could see it being surprisingly close. Obviously his chances of actually winning are near zero but at least he's going to make Marshall put a bit of effort into the race.

He did surprisingly well in 2016 when he ran as an indy. Wouldn't be surprised if he keeps it in the low double digits.

[VPH]

So, do you guys think Kelly will win Saline County? It voted pretty close to the statewide totals in 2014, so I assume only if she wins? I stayed at a motel in Salina for a couple days during my road trip last year (#DriveoverCountry) so I am personally invested in this outcome. Judging from the primary, Svaty would've had a much better chance there.

I agree that Svaty was the best candidate to win Saline County, but I think Laura Kelly could prevail against Kobach there. It's gonna depend on how much campaigning she does in smaller cities like Salina and Hutchinson. She could be helped by the strong campaign Gerrett Morris is putting up in the 69th House District against JR Claeys, who Democrats have come close to unseating in the recent past.

First District Democratic candidate Alan LaPolice just took a flamethrower to Rep. Marshall's corporate contributions. Pretty good ad if you ask me!! He's raised a decent amount of money, but this district is pretty much impossible for a Democrat to win in. Props to LaPolice for fighting hard.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPXIo3fYRKA&feature=youtu.be

LaPolice seems like a bizarrely good candidate to me, not to mention he somehow managed to pull in over a hundred thousand dollars last quarter. And in such a red district, too! It's a shame his district is so tough but this district is worth keeping an eye on, it just screams "sleeper race" and I could see it being surprisingly close. Obviously his chances of actually winning are near zero but at least he's going to make Marshall put a bit of effort into the race.

He did surprisingly well in 2016 when he ran as an indy. Wouldn't be surprised if he keeps it in the low double digits.

Well, in 2014 (GOP year), Jim Sherow, a K-State historian and former mayor of Manhattan, pulled 32% while raising much less money than LaPolice already has. In 2010, former Salina Mayor Alan Jilka got 23%. So my guess is that LaPolice gets like 25-30%. Marshall is a stronger opponent than Huelskamp.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Don't f*** this up, Kansas! You're the ones that are going to suffer if Kobach wins.

[tmthforu94]

Nice article on Colyer by the Topeka Capital Journal

http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180818/how-did-jeff-colyer-nearly-beat-kris-kobach-despite-long-odds

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[tmthforu94]

This is a frivolous lawsuit meant to undermine Orman and create a distraction. Hopefully it is resolved soon.

[smoltchanov]

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Probably - a proof, that Orman will attract more votes from Democrats, then Republicans. After all - there is no "Republican objection"......))))

[Politician]

Orman will definitely draw more from Democrats, but I'm not convinced he'll take like 10% from Kelly, more like a net of 2-4%.

[libertpaulian]

Orman will definitely draw more from Democrats, but I'm not convinced he'll take like 10% from Kelly, more like a net of 2-4%.

If the race is -this- close, that 2-4% could very well matter.

[tmthforu94]

House GOP leader urges moderate Republicans to either endorse Kobach or sit out the election.

http://www2.ljworld.com/news/state-region/2018/aug/25/kansas-moderates-dilemma-stay-mum-on-kobach-or-endorse-a-competitor/

[VPH]

http://www.wibw.com/content/news/Colyers-campaign-chairman-now-backing-Orman-491799071.html

Colyer's campaign chairman endorsed Orman today. Interesting.

[Politician]

http://www.wibw.com/content/news/Colyers-campaign-chairman-now-backing-Orman-491799071.html

Colyer's campaign chairman endorsed Orman today. Interesting.

Good. Let the clowns split the Republican vote instead of the Democratic vote.

[Sir Mohamed]

http://www.wibw.com/content/news/Colyers-campaign-chairman-now-backing-Orman-491799071.html

Colyer's campaign chairman endorsed Orman today. Interesting.

Good. Let the clowns split the Republican vote instead of the Democratic vote.

Fantastic news. Mr. Colyer, please do likewise.

[tmthforu94]

http://www.wibw.com/content/news/Colyers-campaign-chairman-now-backing-Orman-491799071.html

Colyer's campaign chairman endorsed Orman today. Interesting.

Good. Let the clowns split the Republican vote instead of the Democratic vote.

Fantastic news. Mr. Colyer, please do likewise.

Colyer has already endorsed Kobach.

[Rhenna]

I could see Orman actually pull more from Kobach than Kelly due to moderate Republicans that don't like Kobach.

[Progressive Pessimist]

http://www.wibw.com/content/news/Colyers-campaign-chairman-now-backing-Orman-491799071.html

Colyer's campaign chairman endorsed Orman today. Interesting.

Good. Let the clowns split the Republican vote instead of the Democratic vote.

I don't think too many Kansans will be influenced by this.

Fantastic news. Mr. Colyer, please do likewise.

[VPH]

So, in the 85th House District, Republican Michael Capps has come under scrutiny because a DCF (Department of Children and Families) investigation found him to be emotionally abusive. He was already getting hit for carpetbagging to the 85th district after the campaign began, but the elections board, filled with partisan Republicans, shot down the objection to his campaign. Capps is refusing to drop out, even though Republicans are calling for him to do so.

This district is suburban and takes in some rural areas too. Previously, it was represented by Steve Brunk and then Chuck Weber (who goes to my church back home), two of the most conservative Republicans in state government. It voted 61% for Trump, but I honestly think Democrat Monica Marks is a strong candidate. She's associated with the pro-James Thompson class of local Democratic activists and is young, progressive, and running a strong campaign. I'd keep this one on your radar!

https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article217638450.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KS-02 is a perfect pickup opportunity and with that Laura Kelly can win an upset in the great state of Kansas.

[kcguy]

Something I found interesting:

I was stopped at a light this morning, next to an Orman campaign sign, and I noticed that Tim Owens was the campaign treasurer.

(Tim Owens is a former Republican state legislator, who was defeated in the 2012 primary by a more right-wing candidate.  I used to live in his district, and I voted for him for State House in 2006 and for State Senate in 2008.  That was back when I would occasionally vote Republican.)

[TheSaint250]

Anyone notice how the only two polls we had (Remington and PPP, which were both internal polls) showed the candidates for whom the polls were commissioned for losing?

[RogueBeaver]

Firefighters union endorses Kobach.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will win in Red states as well as blue states due to fact voters want change. KS 2 is vulnerable and Kelly is only down by 1

[Badger]

Firefighters union endorses Kobach.

WTF?

[VPH]

Firefighters union endorses Kobach.

WTF?

This guy is behind Kobach's labor outreach. A Democrat, Keith Mark, is Kobach's hunting buddy and was his initial link to Donald Trump. He also has been doing favors for Kobach in terms of garnering union support.