Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1029016458364375040

Just for reference JoCo started with 1821 provisionals so they'll be counting 64.5% of the provisionals

Sedgwick is starting with 1900 provisionals

Well the tweet says there are 898 votes not being counted, but some of those are mail-in ballots so I'm not confident as to what percent of provisionals are being counted.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1029016458364375040

Just for reference JoCo started with 1821 provisionals so they'll be counting 64.5% of the provisionals

Sedgwick is starting with 1900 provisionals

Well the tweet says there are 898 votes not being counted, but some of those are mail-in ballots so I'm not confident as to what percent of provisionals are being counted.

One more detail (and all details matter) from the tweet thread is that there seem to be 275 partial count ballots, which would be people who voted at the wrong precinct so would have votes for local or rep races count if they're not in the jurisdiction, but have their vote count for things like Gov.

[DINGO Joe]

KC Star answers all the questions

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/election/article216489915.html#storylink=twt_staff

1176 fully accepted, 275 partials (which mean Gov votes will count)

They also accepted 57 ballots from unaffiliated voters who were not told to full out a party declaration.

[tmthforu94]

Here we go again, provisional ballots are starting to come into KS SOS site. Will update main post as they come in. 112 vote margin right now.

[tmthforu94]

Saline County comes in at 31 votes for Colyer, 22 for Kobach. For reference, Colyer won the county 47-36% so a slight improvement for him.

[tmthforu94]

Rice County comes in, Colyer gains 10 votes, Kobach gains 5.

MARGIN: KOBACH +99

[Gass3268]

We need a progress map!

[Sestak]

This is going to be a nightmare for the KSGOP regardless of the outcome of this count.

[DINGO Joe]

We need a progress map!

Sadly, the SoS map doesn't indicate who has reported and who hasn't

[tmthforu94]

We need a progress map!

Sadly, the SoS map doesn't indicate who has reported and who hasn't

Yeah, I briefly thought of trying to copy down all of the numbers now and look for variances later, but too complicated and too much work. I wish they did what they did on Friday - move all counties to incomplete. I'll ask on Twitter! Smaller counties will probably mostly be a wash, we'll have a pretty good idea what is going to happen from the big counties.

One of my friends said every county that has sent in so far (only a handful) has been an increase for Colyer. However, Kobach is currently up big in Butler County (he won by 16%) and is going to increase his votes there.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Thanks to tmthforu94 for these continuing updates!

[DINGO Joe]

We need a progress map!

Sadly, the SoS map doesn't indicate who has reported and who hasn't

Yeah, I briefly thought of trying to copy down all of the numbers now and look for variances later, but too complicated and too much work. I wish they did what they did on Friday - move all counties to incomplete. I'll ask on Twitter! Smaller counties will probably mostly be a wash, we'll have a pretty good idea what is going to happen from the big counties.

One of my friends said every county that has sent in so far (only a handful) has been an increase for Colyer. However, Kobach is currently up big in Butler County (he won by 16%) and is going to increase his votes there.

Yeah, the gold to brown made it easy to follow

Sedgwick is meeting right now and has approved 1311 "easy" provisionals and presumably are slogging thru the rest now.

https://twitter.com/DionKansas

[Landslide Lyndon]

Thanks to tmthforu94 for these continuing updates!

[DINGO Joe]

Pottawattamie, which had an unusually high number of provisionals for it's size also has given Kobach a big bump as it's come in 64-9 for Kobach. 

[tmthforu94]

https://ent.sos.ks.gov/

It is doing shading for counties, you need to clear your browser cookies for it to display correctly. 18 counties in so far.

[DINGO Joe]

https://ent.sos.ks.gov/

It is doing shading for counties, you need to clear your browser cookies for it to display correctly. 18 counties in so far.

Thanks, I actually had to clear the cache/images not cookies

[DINGO Joe]

Yeah, Butler came in 43 to 21 for Kobach and now he's up by 168 votes. Colyer needs a game changer like winning the Sedgwick provisional vote. 

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1029076609758838784

[KingSweden]

Thanks to tmthforu94 for these continuing updates!

[Xing]

I'm going to make a (not so) bold prediction and predict that neither candidate will concede for at least two weeks.

Also

Thanks to tmthforu94 for these continuing updates!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's a Solomon-like suggestion: put them both on the GE ballot.

[tmthforu94]

I was just thinking if there is an constitutionality of just putting "Republican Candidate" on the ballot, but I think doing so would essentially hand the election to Kelly.

A tweet I saw: "If an unaffiliated voter didn't declare a party, how were they given the correct (R or D) ballot?" Expect that to be Colyer's opening argument. The unaffiliated voters who were directed to just fill out a provisional ballot and didn't declare a party aren't counting...for now. Which IMHO is wrong as they were directed by poll workers to do so. Just like it is wrong to not count votes where the postmark is smudged as that wasn't the fault of the voter.

The margin is 168. Keep in mind though that we're probably looking at around 1k of those non-affiliated votes and those are expected to be heavily for Colyer, hence the drama surrounding them. Colyer needs to keep it close in Sedgwick and get a big haul in JoCo.

[tmthforu94]

181.The lions share of the votes are still coming in, and as I said in my last post, the results of litigation could still alter the race, but Colyer really needs to be making up some votes and he isn't doing it.

[Xing]

Kobach's lead is up to 215 now, and while Shawnee, Douglas, and Johnston still haven't reported provisionals, neither has Sedgwick. Not looking good for Colyer.

[Badger]

Thanks to tmthforu94 for these continuing updates!