Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!
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  Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!  (Read 82369 times)
Pollster
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« Reply #325 on: August 07, 2018, 10:06:53 PM »
Quite a few GOP incumbents in the state legislature are currently trailing their challengers.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #326 on: August 07, 2018, 10:08:58 PM »
Shoutout to Ken Selzer for winning a county.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #327 on: August 07, 2018, 10:10:07 PM »
Colyer is up by ~900 but Crawford County is messed up on Politico by about ~900 votes, so the race is essentially a tie.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #328 on: August 07, 2018, 10:11:27 PM »
Quote from: Delegate The Saint on August 07, 2018, 10:08:58 PM
Shoutout to Ken Selzer for winning a county.
Home county for his Lt. Governor candidate.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #329 on: August 07, 2018, 10:12:29 PM »
Why is Johnson taking so long to count? This this typical?
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #330 on: August 07, 2018, 10:13:48 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on August 07, 2018, 10:12:29 PM
Why is Johnson taking so long to count? This this typical?
Quote from: tmthforu94 on August 07, 2018, 09:58:30 PM
Nothing more has came from JoCo - there were some voting booth issues today so it may be a while.

But yes, this is typical. Sad
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #331 on: August 07, 2018, 10:17:04 PM »
Also, FWIW, in the past JoCo has essentially dumped all of the vote at one time, so it shouldn't be a slow trickle. Once they report, we'll have a pretty good idea.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #332 on: August 07, 2018, 10:25:27 PM »
I'd like for KKK to edge ahead before the JoCo dump so his supporters can claim voter fraud for Colyer edging it out.
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Xing
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« Reply #333 on: August 07, 2018, 10:28:47 PM »
Since Crawford looks like an error, he probably is slightly ahead right now.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #334 on: August 07, 2018, 10:31:52 PM »
Quote from: Barraco Clintez on August 07, 2018, 10:25:27 PM
I'd like for KKK to edge ahead before the JoCo dump so his supporters can claim voter fraud for Colyer edging it out.
That is probably what will happen.

Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 07, 2018, 10:28:47 PM
Since Crawford looks like an error, he probably is slightly ahead right now.
Yes, you are correct. They need to add roughly 900 votes to Kobach.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #335 on: August 07, 2018, 10:36:27 PM »
Looks like those 900+ votes were just added. Kobach in the lead by 0.3% with Johnson County still where it's been for awhile.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #336 on: August 07, 2018, 10:37:43 PM »
Quote from: tmthforu94 on August 07, 2018, 10:31:52 PM
Quote from: Barraco Clintez on August 07, 2018, 10:25:27 PM
I'd like for KKK to edge ahead before the JoCo dump so his supporters can claim voter fraud for Colyer edging it out.
That is probably what will happen.

Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 07, 2018, 10:28:47 PM
Since Crawford looks like an error, he probably is slightly ahead right now.
Yes, you are correct. They need to add roughly 900 votes to Kobach.

See everybody could be happy, you'd get Coyler's primary victory and the KKKers get to scream what they love to scream about.  Of course, they may not show up in the fall which would make Kelly the likely winner.  
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Pouring Rain and Blairing Music
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #337 on: August 07, 2018, 10:39:29 PM »
I look forward to a Colyer win. Kobach is downright frightening on a level with Tom Cotton and more frightening than Trump.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #338 on: August 07, 2018, 10:40:07 PM »
Quote from: Delegate The Saint on August 07, 2018, 10:36:27 PM
Looks like those 900+ votes were just added. Kobach in the lead by 0.3% with Johnson County still where it's been for awhile.
No, it isn't fixed yet. Unsure what % of JoCo voted early, that'll be key. Outside of JoCo, the map looks pretty even, maybe a slight edge to Colyer. Kobach is probably up by around 1500 votes right now.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #339 on: August 07, 2018, 10:40:54 PM »
KKKobach is leading.Sad
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #340 on: August 07, 2018, 10:42:56 PM »
Quote from: tmthforu94 on August 07, 2018, 10:40:07 PM
Quote from: Delegate The Saint on August 07, 2018, 10:36:27 PM
Looks like those 900+ votes were just added. Kobach in the lead by 0.3% with Johnson County still where it's been for awhile.
No, it isn't fixed yet. Unsure what % of JoCo voted early, that'll be key. Outside of JoCo, the map looks pretty even, maybe a slight edge to Colyer. Kobach is probably up by around 1500 votes right now.

Oop, never mind then Tongue
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #341 on: August 07, 2018, 10:45:51 PM »
Republican Primary
40.7%   Kris Kobach   98,252   
40.5%   Jeff Colyer*   97,732
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #342 on: August 07, 2018, 10:47:08 PM »
Is Colyer likely to maintain his 15% margin in Johnston, or will it tighten considerably? The only way Kobach wins is if Johnston tightens quite a bit.
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #343 on: August 07, 2018, 10:48:22 PM »
Come on Colyer!
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #344 on: August 07, 2018, 10:49:44 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 07, 2018, 10:47:08 PM
Is Colyer likely to maintain his 15% margin in Johnston, or will it tighten considerably? The only way Kobach wins is if Johnston tightens quite a bit.
It'll tighten but Colyer will still gain votes, I just don't know how many.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #345 on: August 07, 2018, 10:50:01 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 07, 2018, 10:47:08 PM
Is Colyer likely to maintain his 15% margin in Johnston, or will it tighten considerably? The only way Kobach wins is if Johnston tightens quite a bit.

I'd guess KKK will do better than the early vote, but that some Barnett voters migrate to Coyler and he wins JoCo by a comfy margin.  
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #346 on: August 07, 2018, 10:53:22 PM »
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ERM64man
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« Reply #347 on: August 07, 2018, 10:55:37 PM »
I want Kelly to win the general, but I want Colyer to win the GOP primary to stop KKKobach.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #348 on: August 07, 2018, 10:56:20 PM »
I just heard on TV that around 1/3 of people voted early. Using that number, if he matches early voting he'll gain about 5,000 votes. If he only wins by around 10% in the county (my guess) he still nets ~2,500. I refuse to say whether or not that will be enough because I don't want to jinx anything. Tongue

JoCo is slowly starting to come in, Colyer ups his margin in the county by around 800 votes.
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scutosaurus
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« Reply #349 on: August 07, 2018, 10:58:43 PM »
Quote from: scutosaurus on August 07, 2018, 06:20:15 PM

This race always had a Kemp/Cagle dynamic to it. The Trump endorsement is going to wrap up a lot of votes for Kobach; in the end, I suspect it won't be close.

Just going to comment on how hilariously wrong I apparently was. Colyer is no Cagle, that's for sure.
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