Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[TheSaint250]

Any recent news on Orman?

Also, has there been polling of any kind?

[tmthforu94]

Any recent news on Orman?

Also, has there been polling of any kind?

http://media.kansascity.com/livegraphics/2018/pdf/Poll-gov-race1.pdf

This just got released yesterday for the GOP primary, Colyer leads.

To my knowledge there haven't been any polling for general election. Would be a lot of questions considering all of the candidates.

[VPH]

GOP
http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180521/gop-governor-candidate-ken-selzer-picks-goodland-woman-as-running-mate

Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer has picked his running-mate, Jenifer Sanderson. She appears to be a fast food restaurant owner from Goodland (population 5,000) in Northwest Kansas. A bit of a random pick if you ask me, and I don't know what she adds to the ticket.

Democrats
Carl Brewer is slated to pick his LtGov candidate tomorrow, and Laura Kelly later this week.
Anecdotally, I've heard that Brewer might pick former Wichita City Councilwoman Lavonta Williams or District 29 (North Wichita) State Senator Oletha Faust-Goudeau, both of whom are fantastic leaders. But I also heard that Senator Faust-Goudeau is not decided on who to support in the race. So make of that what you will... I would question the logic behind having an all-Wichita ticket, seeing as to how Sedgwick County will only cast ~20% of the statewide Dem primary vote. That's not enough to win.

Also anecdotally, I've heard that for Laura Kelly it could be Republican District 7 (Mission Hills) State Senator Barbara Bollier. Bollier is a liberal Republican endorsed by Planned Parenthood, the NEA, and the Mainstream Coalition. Her NRA rating is actually FAR lower than Senator Laura Kelly's... The hints that make this a guess for me are not only based on talk, but on the fact that if you scroll through Bollier's Facebook, she keeps referencing a big change/surprise coming up and has been sharing progressively more liberal articles. To boot, she basically endorsed Hays Democratic State Rep Eber Phelps for re-election a few days ago. Perhaps she's just going to switch parties to Independent or Democratic and stick around in the legislature, but I keep hearing that it would be a very Sebelius thing to push Kelly to pick her. On one hand, she's still a Republican. On the other, this could play well in vote-rich Johnson County in both the primary and general, probably at the expense of rural Kansas.

https://votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/119434/barbara-bollier#.WwM70UgvzIU
https://www.facebook.com/barbara.bollier

Another name I've heard is District 25 (West-Central Wichita) first-term Senator Lynn Rogers. A former USD 259 School Board member and former Republican, Rogers is Kelly's current campaign treasurer. He's a good legislator, a very nice person, and a smart choice to angle for Wichita votes and lend education credentials to the ticket.

[VPH]

Carl Brewer has selected former Garnder, KS (Population 21,000) Mayor and Navy Veteran Chris Morrow as his running-mate. Morrow, as the vice-chair of the Johnson County Democrats, might boost Brewer in JoCo, but probably not by much. Overall geographically a much safer pick than what was rumored, but Morrow is also a boring speaker. I don't see him helping an awful lot on the trail or with fundraising.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/kansas/articles/2018-05-22/brewer-picks-another-ex-mayor-kansas-governors-race-ticket

[tmthforu94]

Carl Brewer has selected former Garnder, KS (Population 21,000) Mayor and Navy Veteran Chris Morrow as his running-mate. Morrow, as the vice-chair of the Johnson County Democrats, might boost Brewer in JoCo, but probably not by much. Overall geographically a much safer pick than what was rumored, but Morrow is also a boring speaker. I don't see him helping an awful lot on the trail or with fundraising.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/kansas/articles/2018-05-22/brewer-picks-another-ex-mayor-kansas-governors-race-ticket

A very safe pick - I'm not sure he brings much to the ticket. Lost bad to Julia Lynn in 2016 for State Senate.

I agree with you on Selzer's pick - then again, he is polling at like 5% so wasn't expecting him to pull in a big name.

[VPH]

Well, there's Laura Kelly's pick! As I kinda predicted, she chose Senator Lynn Rogers (West-Central Wichita) who serves as her campaign manager. Lynn was a great school board member and has been fantastic in the Kansas Senate. He adds strength to the ticket in Wichita and probably fundraising strength as well. However, he was a Republican until he ran for Senate and has a conservative past, so it's not a pick that makes much sense for progressive outreach.

http://www.ksnt.com/news/kansas/kansas-governor-candidate-laura-kelly-announces-lynn-rogers-as-running-mate/1196392975

[VPH]

Looks like Laura Kelly's running-mate Lynn Rogers was endorsed by Kansans for Life in 2013. Considering a lot of Laura Kelly's support is made up of people uncomfortable with Joshua Svaty's handful of pro-life votes from 15 years ago, this is laughably ironic. It's a good line for Svaty to use!

[tmthforu94]

I would imagine Svaty will try to avoid bringing up the pro-life issue at all costs. I'm a fan of KFL but unsure why they feel the need to weigh in on school district races.

[VPH]

I would imagine Svaty will try to avoid bringing up the pro-life issue at all costs. I'm a fan of KFL but unsure why they feel the need to weigh in on school district races.

Svaty has stated that he will veto additional restrictions and picked a staunchly pro-choice running mate. He's been pretty upfront in talking about the issue, which is refreshing because others might have just dodged questions. I don't think Svaty himself will be going there with that line on Kelly/Rogers, but some of his supporters are all over it.

It kinda baffles me why KFL weighs in on these local races that have nothing to do with abortion. I heard they even made an endorsement in the Wichita District 1 City Council race last year. Like what the heck does city council do that pertains to abortion? Clinic permits? Idk...

[tmthforu94]

Think this got missed:
http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2018/may/17/marci-francisco-pulls-out-secretary-state-race-fil/

Marci Francisco drops out of Secretary State race to run for State Treasurer. Now looking at likely downballot matchups:
Secretary of State: Schwab vs. McClendon
Treasurer: LaTurner vs. Francisco
Insurance Commissioner: Schultz vs. McLaughlin

Republicans should win every race by double-digits. I think McClendon will keep the SoS race interesting, but the other two should be walks for the GOP.

As for Attorney General, incumbment Derek Schmidt is running for reelection. To my knowledge there are no Democrats who have filed yet, though I could be wrong. Regardless, he will be the most likely Republican to win a statewide office.

[tmthforu94]

Jim Barnett (R) picks his wife as his running mate. Very little chance of winning; will probably end up with 8-10% of vote.

http://www.ksnt.com/news/kansas/jim-barnett-picks-wife-as-running-mate-for-lieutenant-governor/1210509345

[VPH]

Jim Barnett (R) picks his wife as his running mate. Very little chance of winning; will probably end up with 8-10% of vote.

http://www.ksnt.com/news/kansas/jim-barnett-picks-wife-as-running-mate-for-lieutenant-governor/1210509345

I find this really funny, but also sadly telling. Moderates are more likely imo to pick Colyer to keep Kobach out. I ran into O'Malley a few weeks back and he told me he dropped out because he didn't see a path to victory for himself.

[tmthforu94]

Jim Barnett (R) picks his wife as his running mate. Very little chance of winning; will probably end up with 8-10% of vote.

http://www.ksnt.com/news/kansas/jim-barnett-picks-wife-as-running-mate-for-lieutenant-governor/1210509345

I find this really funny, but also sadly telling. Moderates are more likely imo to pick Colyer to keep Kobach out. I ran into O'Malley a few weeks back and he told me he dropped out because he didn't see a path to victory for himself.

I agree - thankfully Selzer is running on a similar message to Kobach. As long as this stays a two person race and Selzer or Barnett (lol) don't surge, I think Colyer will have the edge. I think he's been fairly competent as Governor and seems to be gaining establishment backing. Kobach is just a walking disaster, I think Kansans are smart enough to avoid that (whether it be in primary or general).

[VPH]

Two more strange things happened today in the weird world of Kansas politics!

1. Ron M. Estes has filed to run against Ron Estes in the KS-04 Republican primary. Yes, you read that correctly. Somebody with the same name as the incumbent Congressman is challenging him in the primary. He has a website, a Twitter (@RealRonEstes) and graphics that say "Vote for the Real Ron Estes". Comment from the Congressman's office was "This is clearly an attempt to deceive Kansas voters.”

I'm really curious to see how much of the vote Ron M. Estes can pull, and see whether or not this will make Congressman Estes waste his money in the primary. Knowing he's a bad fundraiser, this is even more comical.
https://twitter.com/RealRonEstes
http://www.realronestes.com/
http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article212306569.html#storylink=latest_side

2. No Democratic candidate has as of now filed for AG. This means... VERMIN SUPREME HAS DECIDED TO FILE. He's ponied up the filing fee and is filing as a Democrat for Attorney General tomorrow. Every half-serious politico in the state is hoping some other Democrat gets their act together and also files, but we're quite close to having a joke as a statewide candidate at this point. Today, a court decision found that out-of-state candidates for governor were not eligible, but I don't think the ruling applies to other row offices... This should be interesting.

http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180531/vermin-supreme-dental-activist-horse-lover-to-file-as-candidate-for-kansas-attorney-general

[_]

VERMIN SUPREME 2018!!!!

[DINGO Joe]

VERMIN SUPREME 2018!!!!

Free Ponies For All!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Two more strange things happened today in the weird world of Kansas politics!

1. Ron M. Estes has filed to run against Ron Estes in the KS-04 Republican primary. Yes, you read that correctly. Somebody with the same name as the incumbent Congressman is challenging him in the primary. He has a website, a Twitter (@RealRonEstes) and graphics that say "Vote for the Real Ron Estes". Comment from the Congressman's office was "This is clearly an attempt to deceive Kansas voters.”

I'm really curious to see how much of the vote Ron M. Estes can pull, and see whether or not this will make Congressman Estes waste his money in the primary. Knowing he's a bad fundraiser, this is even more comical.
https://twitter.com/RealRonEstes
http://www.realronestes.com/
http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article212306569.html#storylink=latest_side

2. No Democratic candidate has as of now filed for AG. This means... VERMIN SUPREME HAS DECIDED TO FILE. He's ponied up the filing fee and is filing as a Democrat for Attorney General tomorrow. Every half-serious politico in the state is hoping some other Democrat gets their act together and also files, but we're quite close to having a joke as a statewide candidate at this point. Today, a court decision found that out-of-state candidates for governor were not eligible, but I don't think the ruling applies to other row offices... This should be interesting.

http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180531/vermin-supreme-dental-activist-horse-lover-to-file-as-candidate-for-kansas-attorney-general

Jesus Christ, someone file for AG please, sheesh.

[VPH]

Two more strange things happened today in the weird world of Kansas politics!

1. Ron M. Estes has filed to run against Ron Estes in the KS-04 Republican primary. Yes, you read that correctly. Somebody with the same name as the incumbent Congressman is challenging him in the primary. He has a website, a Twitter (@RealRonEstes) and graphics that say "Vote for the Real Ron Estes". Comment from the Congressman's office was "This is clearly an attempt to deceive Kansas voters.”

I'm really curious to see how much of the vote Ron M. Estes can pull, and see whether or not this will make Congressman Estes waste his money in the primary. Knowing he's a bad fundraiser, this is even more comical.
https://twitter.com/RealRonEstes
http://www.realronestes.com/
http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article212306569.html#storylink=latest_side

2. No Democratic candidate has as of now filed for AG. This means... VERMIN SUPREME HAS DECIDED TO FILE. He's ponied up the filing fee and is filing as a Democrat for Attorney General tomorrow. Every half-serious politico in the state is hoping some other Democrat gets their act together and also files, but we're quite close to having a joke as a statewide candidate at this point. Today, a court decision found that out-of-state candidates for governor were not eligible, but I don't think the ruling applies to other row offices... This should be interesting.

http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180531/vermin-supreme-dental-activist-horse-lover-to-file-as-candidate-for-kansas-attorney-general

Jesus Christ, someone file for AG please, sheesh.

Sarah Swain, a well-known Lawrence attorney, has now filed. Rest assured our nominee will probably not be Vermin Supreme.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Two more strange things happened today in the weird world of Kansas politics!

1. Ron M. Estes has filed to run against Ron Estes in the KS-04 Republican primary. Yes, you read that correctly. Somebody with the same name as the incumbent Congressman is challenging him in the primary. He has a website, a Twitter (@RealRonEstes) and graphics that say "Vote for the Real Ron Estes". Comment from the Congressman's office was "This is clearly an attempt to deceive Kansas voters.”

I'm really curious to see how much of the vote Ron M. Estes can pull, and see whether or not this will make Congressman Estes waste his money in the primary. Knowing he's a bad fundraiser, this is even more comical.
https://twitter.com/RealRonEstes
http://www.realronestes.com/
http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article212306569.html#storylink=latest_side

2. No Democratic candidate has as of now filed for AG. This means... VERMIN SUPREME HAS DECIDED TO FILE. He's ponied up the filing fee and is filing as a Democrat for Attorney General tomorrow. Every half-serious politico in the state is hoping some other Democrat gets their act together and also files, but we're quite close to having a joke as a statewide candidate at this point. Today, a court decision found that out-of-state candidates for governor were not eligible, but I don't think the ruling applies to other row offices... This should be interesting.

http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180531/vermin-supreme-dental-activist-horse-lover-to-file-as-candidate-for-kansas-attorney-general

Jesus Christ, someone file for AG please, sheesh.

Sarah Swain, a well-known Lawrence attorney, has now filed. Rest assured our nominee will probably not be Vermin Supreme.

Good to hear, thanks for the info.

[smoltchanov]

One question to Kansas locals about state legislative primaries in light of never ending war between Republican conservatives and Republican moderates: after quick glance  on candidate list i noticed, that relatively "experienced" moderates (sometimes - "almost liberals"), especially in suburban districts (Clayton, Gallagher, Rooker and some other) are mostly unopposed in their primaries, while "new" ones (Good, Judd-Jenkins and other) almost invariably have intraparty opposition. An attempt by conservatives to overturn 2016 results (which went mostly in moderate's favor, and led to many anti-Brownback votes in legislature), while these newcomers didn't get too entrenched? Which are their chances for success now (when Brownback is no longer in office)?

[Rhenna]

Geez. First it was the teens for Governor, then the dog running for the GOP nomination, then the two Ron Estes', and now Vermin Supreme. Kansas appears to have the weirdest political climate.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Was Swain planning on filing before yesterday? Or did she file as an emergency measure. I guess what I'm asking is is she serious about running a campaign or did she do this to avoid the state party being represented by a man who wears a boot on his head. Atlas has repeatedly told me that Brownback/Kobach have turned KS into the liberal bastion of the plains...

Also the Ron Estes story is funny, but man his twitter page is horrible. Just calling the fake Ron Estes a swamp creature over and over again, which may just make him competitive in a district like KS-04.

[tmthforu94]

One question to Kansas locals about state legislative primaries in light of never ending war between Republican conservatives and Republican moderates: after quick glance  on candidate list i noticed, that relatively "experienced" moderates (sometimes - "almost liberals"), especially in suburban districts (Clayton, Gallagher, Rooker and some other) are mostly unopposed in their primaries, while "new" ones (Good, Judd-Jenkins and other) almost invariably have intraparty opposition. An attempt by conservatives to overturn 2016 results (which went mostly in moderate's favor, and led to many anti-Brownback votes in legislature), while these newcomers didn't get too entrenched? Which are their chances for success now (when Brownback is no longer in office)?

I think you're spot on with this - Republicans are trying to win back traditionally conservative districts before the moderate in there now becomes too entrenched. A lot of the districts that moderates hold in the House and Senate are seats that would probably flip to Democrats if a conservative won the primary, and I think there is an understanding of that, hence why party leadership doesn't support primary challenges to them.

[tmthforu94]

Going to do "Tmth Ratings" a few times leading up to the primary and then after on how I think the results would be if the election were today. I encourage VPH to do something similar so we can have two different perspectives!

Republican Primary:
Colyer: 42%
Kobach: 39%
Selzer: 9%
Barnett: 6%
Others: 4%

Democratic Primary:
Kelly: 41%
Svaty: 36%
Brewer: 16%
Others: 7%

General Election Ratings:
Governor/Lt. Governor: Lean Republican
Secretary of State: Likely Republican
Attorney General: Safe Republican
Treasurer: Safe Republican
Insurance Commissioner: Safe Republican
State Legislature: Safe Republican - Democrats pick up 1-5 seats, will be very difficult to predict until after primary

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Going to do "Tmth Ratings" a few times leading up to the primary and then after on how I think the results would be if the election were today. I encourage VPH to do something similar so we can have two different perspectives!

Republican Primary:
Colyer: 42%
Kobach: 39%
Selzer: 9%
Barnett: 6%
Others: 4%

Democratic Primary:
Kelly: 41%
Svaty: 36%
Brewer: 16%
Others: 7%

General Election Ratings:
Governor/Lt. Governor: Lean Republican
Secretary of State: Likely Republican
Attorney General: Safe Republican
Treasurer: Safe Republican
Insurance Commissioner: Safe Republican
State Legislature: Safe Republican - Democrats pick up 1-5 seats, will be very difficult to predict until after primary

If democrats are even remotely competitive in the governor race, they will likely pick up more than 1-5 seats. It's not very hard to pick up more than 1-5 when they have an 85-40 deficit in the state house.

People always underestimate how many seats will flip in state legislatures... smh at everyone who thought dems would gain 5-10 in VA and they ended up gaining 15 (and losing one by a coinflip).