Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[libertpaulian]

He should have asked for a recount.  Oh well.

The same KS SOS would be in charge of the recount. Colyer said in his concession speech that it would take extraordinary measures (meaning court challenges) to potentially change the outcome. Conservative justices might be split on the issue anyway since it's between 2 Republicans.

Didn't Kobach discount the unaffiliated ballots?  I'd consider that cheating by Kobach.

[TheSaint250]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[BL53931]

BREAKING NEWS

Unofficial provisional numbers from JoCo:
Colyer: 300
Kobach: 325

Tmth Projection: Kris Kobach is the GOP nominee for Kansas Governor.

Praise Jesus!

For purposes of retaining my sanity I am assuming you were being humorous. If you meant it, I don't want to know.

[tmthforu94]

I'm very disappointed that Colyer has conceded but I think it was the right decision. Even with a recount and court challenges, overcoming this deficit would be highly unlikely. It is time for KS GOP to unite and focus on winning in November.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1029535981924376576

[GeorgiaModerate]

I have a feeling that if the situations were reversed, Kobach would not be as quick to concede.

[pppolitics]

Why is Orman still running again?

[tmthforu94]

I have a feeling that if the situations were reversed, Kobach would not be as quick to concede.

Agreed. Classy move by Colyer, he's a great guy.

Why is Orman still running again?

He's going to start flooding the airwaves for the next few weeks, if he can pull his numbers up a little bit before Labor Day, he could have a serious shot at winning.

[junior chįmp]

BREAKING NEWS

Unofficial provisional numbers from JoCo:
Colyer: 300
Kobach: 325

Tmth Projection: Kris Kobach is the GOP nominee for Kansas Governor.

Praise Jesus!

[smoltchanov]

Well, November 6th will be..... interesting in Kansas. I still don't want governor Kobach for Kansas people nevertheless...

P.S. Now is the time for me to "change colors" somewhat. I rooted for moderate republicans in primary, and will continue to do so in the races (like COI and some state House), where such candidates managed to win primary, but in all other - i am all out for Democrats. Kelly, Davis, and so on))). Game continues....

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1029594083361206272

[smoltchanov]

^ If one of two drops now - may be not, Kobach being .... Kobach. But if one drops, say, in October - probably yes...

[Thunder98]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1029594083361206272

Doesnt Larry Sabato relived that the Democrats won the Kansas GOV races in 2006 and 2002?

[IceSpear]

Larry also seems to forget that Brownback only won by 4 points in 2014. He would've lost even in a neutral year, much less a Dem wave.

[smoltchanov]

Larry also seems to forget that Brownback only won by 4 points in 2014. He would've lost even in a neutral year, much less a Dem wave.

You still need a wave. Not now, but - in November. And, in 2014 there wasn't a potentially strong 3rd party centrist candidate, only libertarian, who mostly took votes from Republicans.

[IceSpear]

Larry also seems to forget that Brownback only won by 4 points in 2014. He would've lost even in a neutral year, much less a Dem wave.

Larry the Expert also had MN-Gov as a tossup because of Pawlenty or something so there’s that

LOL, Loony Larry strikes again.

I still think Kobach will narrowly win because of Orman, but "muh Kobach will be favored even without Orman because Kansas is a red state" is the hottest of takes.

[smoltchanov]

Larry also seems to forget that Brownback only won by 4 points in 2014. He would've lost even in a neutral year, much less a Dem wave.

Larry the Expert also had MN-Gov as a tossup because of Pawlenty or something so there’s that

LOL, Loony Larry strikes again.

I still think Kobach will narrowly win because of Orman, but "muh Kobach will be favored even without Orman because Kansas is a red state" is the hottest of takes.

IMHO - without Orman Kelly could even be slightly favored, but with him - alas...

[Mycool]

I think there’s a non-minuscule chance that Orman has the opposite effect on the race than many expect. One can’t oversell how contentious the primary was, especially with the provisionals, and Kobach is the most unpopular statewide elected officials. I could see many moderate (in tone and substance) republicans supporting Orman before they could stomach supporting a democrat.

[smoltchanov]

I think there’s a non-minuscule chance that Orman has the opposite effect on the race than many expect. One can’t oversell how contentious the primary was, especially with the provisionals, and Kobach is the most unpopular statewide elected officials. I could see many moderate (in tone and substance) republicans supporting Orman before they could stomach supporting a democrat.

Quite possible. The problem, as i see it, is, that Kelly needs moderate Republican vote too. Democratic candidate in Kansas usually can't win on Democratic votes ONLY. It's good, that moderate Republican and Indie vote will not go to Kobach, but if it will NOT go to Kelly - i can't predict the final result..

[ON Progressive]

I think there’s a non-minuscule chance that Orman has the opposite effect on the race than many expect. One can’t oversell how contentious the primary was, especially with the provisionals, and Kobach is the most unpopular statewide elected officials. I could see many moderate (in tone and substance) republicans supporting Orman before they could stomach supporting a democrat.

I agree. Indeed, I actually EXPECT Orman to take more from Rs.

I know he was the de facto Dem in 2014 KS-Sen, but I think Dems are going to be more likely to stick with their nominee against Kobach than they were going to against Roberts.

[VPH]

First District Democratic candidate Alan LaPolice just took a flamethrower to Rep. Marshall's corporate contributions. Pretty good ad if you ask me!! He's raised a decent amount of money, but this district is pretty much impossible for a Democrat to win in. Props to LaPolice for fighting hard.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPXIo3fYRKA&feature=youtu.be

[wesmoorenerd]

First District Democratic candidate Alan LaPolice just took a flamethrower to Rep. Marshall's corporate contributions. Pretty good ad if you ask me!! He's raised a decent amount of money, but this district is pretty much impossible for a Democrat to win in. Props to LaPolice for fighting hard.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPXIo3fYRKA&feature=youtu.be

LaPolice seems like a bizarrely good candidate to me, not to mention he somehow managed to pull in over a hundred thousand dollars last quarter. And in such a red district, too! It's a shame his district is so tough but this district is worth keeping an eye on, it just screams "sleeper race" and I could see it being surprisingly close. Obviously his chances of actually winning are near zero but at least he's going to make Marshall put a bit of effort into the race.

[VPH]

First District Democratic candidate Alan LaPolice just took a flamethrower to Rep. Marshall's corporate contributions. Pretty good ad if you ask me!! He's raised a decent amount of money, but this district is pretty much impossible for a Democrat to win in. Props to LaPolice for fighting hard.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPXIo3fYRKA&feature=youtu.be

LaPolice seems like a bizarrely good candidate to me, not to mention he somehow managed to pull in over a hundred thousand dollars last quarter. And in such a red district, too! It's a shame his district is so tough but this district is worth keeping an eye on, it just screams "sleeper race" and I could see it being surprisingly close. Obviously his chances of actually winning are near zero but at least he's going to make Marshall put a bit of effort into the race.

He's definitely intriguing. Gulf War Veteran who is a farmer, school superintendent, and actor. He got attacked for being in a movie about college students questioning their sexuality, but he nearly defeated Huelskamp in the 2014 GOP primary.

[Thunder98]