Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[VPH]

Greg Orman has chosen Kansas State Representative John Doll, who before becoming an independent in joining the ticket was a moderate Republican.

https://www.ormanforkansas.com/about_john_doll

He will now be the Kansas Legislature's only independent.

This seems to be a move to increase his bipartisan credentials in the eyes of some Republicans who might have viewed him as being a Democrat stand-in in 2014 (though those that think that probably won't vote for him anyway).

Funny enough, Doll used to be a Democrat and ran for the big first in 2006.

Good grief. Two opportunistic peas in a pod.

You can't win in far western Kansas as a Democrat, usually. And Doll is from Western Kansas. So - he made a right decision..

I don't necessarily agree. Dennis McKinney used to pull great numbers in West-Central Kansas. Eber Phelps, a longtime Representative from Hays and former Hays mayor (iirc), won back his seat over moderate Sue Boldra in 2016. Trump got around 75% here, although it's an ancestrally Democratic area way back. Heck, Daniel Love almost won the Dodge City House seat after dropping out the day after the filing deadline and not having his name taken off the ballot. Without campaigning, he was one mailer or two away from winning a deep red district. Granted, Love is a longtime judge there, but it goes to show that in Kansas, it's hard to write things off.

In 2006, despite getting creamed, John Doll got around 40% in Finney County. My guess is that he won Garden City proper and could probably win the corresponding state House seat as a Democrat.

Thanks for info. Of course - you are local, and i genralized somewhat, but let's consider a map of Kansas state House districts. How many distiricts west of Wichita are now held by Democrats? IIRC - exactly one, by Eber Phelps you mentioned. And in state Senate? Zero. So, i think, what i said is rather close to the truth...

Jason Probst has the Hutchinson-based HD 102, and Jolene Roitman hit 40% in HD 116. What I'm saying is not that it's easy to win out West, but that Democrats too often take a defeatist attitude. Orman's reasoning in picking Doll is probably that he wants to undercut Svaty. I don't think it'll work. If anything, picking Doll, who supports teachers carrying guns, will not play well with Orman's own base. This strange attempt at a balancing act, combined with all the mud that will be thrown at Orman from both sides, will cripple his campaign.

[henster]

The Bill Walker route seemed to be the best path forward for Dems but Orman doesn't seem to want it, he could've waited until the Dem primary and offered a slot for one of the nominees.

[smoltchanov]

Greg Orman has chosen Kansas State Representative John Doll, who before becoming an independent in joining the ticket was a moderate Republican.

https://www.ormanforkansas.com/about_john_doll

He will now be the Kansas Legislature's only independent.

This seems to be a move to increase his bipartisan credentials in the eyes of some Republicans who might have viewed him as being a Democrat stand-in in 2014 (though those that think that probably won't vote for him anyway).

Funny enough, Doll used to be a Democrat and ran for the big first in 2006.

Good grief. Two opportunistic peas in a pod.

You can't win in far western Kansas as a Democrat, usually. And Doll is from Western Kansas. So - he made a right decision..

I don't necessarily agree. Dennis McKinney used to pull great numbers in West-Central Kansas. Eber Phelps, a longtime Representative from Hays and former Hays mayor (iirc), won back his seat over moderate Sue Boldra in 2016. Trump got around 75% here, although it's an ancestrally Democratic area way back. Heck, Daniel Love almost won the Dodge City House seat after dropping out the day after the filing deadline and not having his name taken off the ballot. Without campaigning, he was one mailer or two away from winning a deep red district. Granted, Love is a longtime judge there, but it goes to show that in Kansas, it's hard to write things off.

In 2006, despite getting creamed, John Doll got around 40% in Finney County. My guess is that he won Garden City proper and could probably win the corresponding state House seat as a Democrat.

Thanks for info. Of course - you are local, and i genralized somewhat, but let's consider a map of Kansas state House districts. How many distiricts west of Wichita are now held by Democrats? IIRC - exactly one, by Eber Phelps you mentioned. And in state Senate? Zero. So, i think, what i said is rather close to the truth...

Jason Probst has the Hutchinson-based HD 102, and Jolene Roitman hit 40% in HD 116. What I'm saying is not that it's easy to win out West, but that Democrats too often take a defeatist attitude. Orman's reasoning in picking Doll is probably that he wants to undercut Svaty. I don't think it'll work. If anything, picking Doll, who supports teachers carrying guns, will not play well with Orman's own base. This strange attempt at a balancing act, combined with all the mud that will be thrown at Orman from both sides, will cripple his campaign.

We will see. Both Kobach and Colyer would be absolutely unacceptable to me, and i don't see any serious moderate Republican running. So i need to cheer either for Orman or for Democratic candidate, but i really fear that their bases (unlike that of conservatives) overlap too much.

[tmthforu94]

Kobach selects Hartman as his Lt. Governor candidate

http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article206248779.html

[tmthforu94]

Another candidate will be running on the Republican side.

[smoltchanov]

Another candidate will be running on the Republican side.

4 month before primary. Is it not too late to begin from scratch?

[tmthforu94]

Another candidate will be running on the Republican side.

4 month before primary. Is it not too late to begin from scratch?

Perhaps they aren't beginning from scratch.

[DINGO Joe]

Another candidate will be running on the Republican side.

4 month before primary. Is it not too late to begin from scratch?

Perhaps they aren't beginning from scratch.

Brownback is coming back!

[tmthforu94]

Poll from the Docking Institute: https://fhsu.edu/docking/Kansas-Speaks/kansas-governors-race-poll-spring-20181.pdf

Kobach, Orman and Colyer all clear 50% name recognition. Highest Democrat is Carl Brewer at 38.4%.

Favorable Ratings (Positive/Not Positive)
Laura Kelly (D) - 52/11 (+41)
Josh Svaty (D) - 52/13) (+39)
Carl Brewer (D) - 47/14 (+33)
Jim Ward (D) - 42/11 (+31)
Greg Orman (D) - 33/15 (+18)
Jeff Colyer (R) - 29/30 (-1)
Kris Kobach (R) - 30/50 (-20)

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The poll indicates high enthusiasm from Democrats - they all seemed to mark "favorable" even for Democrats they hadn't heard of, while Republicans were mot neutral on their candidates. On the same line, Republicans didn't just automatically say "unfavorable" for each Democrat,  while Democrats did that for Republicans.

It's a shame they didn't actually poll the primaries or do general election matchups - that would have given us a clearer idea of what was happening.

[_]

So is Vermin Supreme is running for Kansas AG?

[Pollster]

What would Kelly vs. Kobach look like? Kelly v. Kobach v. Orman?

[tmthforu94]

So is Vermin Supreme is running for Kansas AG?

Schmidt is running for a third term. To my knowledge there are no Democrats yet, but VPH might have more info on that.

[Tartarus Sauce]

What would Kelly vs. Kobach look like? Kelly v. Kobach v. Orman?

Kobach would probably lose to any Democrat even with Orman siphoning some of the anti-Kobach votes away.

[VPH]

So is Vermin Supreme is running for Kansas AG?

Schmidt is running for a third term. To my knowledge there are no Democrats yet, but VPH might have more info on that.

I haven't heard of any Democrats running for Treasurer, AG, or Insurance Commissioner. I'm confident somebody will file. Maybe one of the names that was thrown around for governor but decided not to run? Senator Tom Holland (I heard the governor rumor last May from somebody who knows him well), Lawrence City Commissioner Mike Amyx, etc? Or more likely it'll be some random people.

[tmthforu94]

Former candidate Mark Hutton endorses Governor Colyer

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http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article209723804.html

[VPH]

Three big(ish) updates!

1. Minority Leader Jim Ward dropped out of the Gubernatorial Race. From what I've heard, it was mostly about the fact that he hasn't raised money well at all. However, there was an allegation of "inappropriate conduct" in the past, so maybe that factored into this. Regardless, this puts Wichita more into play than it was.
http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article210778999.html

2. Josh Svaty will be announcing his running mate soon (first Dem to do so). This is exciting! Today, Svaty was the only Democrat to appear at the McPherson County (25.32% Hillary) All Schools Parade, where 10,000-15,000 people lined the streets on the first day of summer break to watch floats pass by. Yet another example of how Svaty is campaigning all over the state!
https://www.facebook.com/SvatyforKansas/photos/a.1271345429629706.1073741829.1270533396377576/1601976799899899/?type=3&theater

3. State Senator Laura Kelly received the endorsement of former Sebelius budget director Duane Goosen. This is unsurprising considering her close relationship to Sebelius (they're neighbors and Sebelius' machine is bankrolling the Kelly campaign). The funny thing is that Kelly announced right after Ward dropped that she had a big endorsement, so everybody thought it was going to be Ward.
http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180510/duane-goossen-throws-support-behind-laura-kelly-in-kansas-governors-race

[tmthforu94]

VPH, which Democrat do you think benefits the most from Ward's withdrawal? I would think it would help Brewer since he is now able to consolidate support in Wichita and is further to the left than Kelly or Svaty, but interested in hearing your take.

[VPH]

VPH, which Democrat do you think benefits the most from Ward's withdrawal? I would think it would help Brewer since he is now able to consolidate support in Wichita and is further to the left than Kelly or Svaty, but interested in hearing your take.

Initially, my thought was Brewer for that very reasoning. He's got by far the best name recognition in Wichita. The one big thing I think could hurt that is that his fundraising was somehow even weaker than Ward's. Will people take his campaign seriously enough for Ward dropping to boost him? Labor unions in Wichita were largely behind Ward, and now there's the question of whether or not they'll back Brewer (former organizer) or Svaty (who has heavy labor support in Wyandotte County). Kelly could stand to benefit too, but I haven't really seen her around South Central Kansas much, aside from going to Newton last week.

[tmthforu94]

As we discussed a couple weeks ago....an article about the fact that Democrats currently have no candidates for 3/5 of statewide offices.

http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article211100969.html

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Also:

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[tmthforu94]

Secretary of State race could get interesting, especially if Brian McClendon (creator of Google Earth) wins the Democratic nomination. VPH, any insight on that primary? I would love to see Schwab take down Arnold on the GOP side - Schwab has butted heads with Kobach on a couple occasions over Kobach's criticism of the legislature.

Even if Democrats field a candidate in the three races (Treasurer, Insurance Commissioner, Attorney General) I don't see them being able to seriously contest any of them - Republicans have strong candidates in each race.

EDIT: Turns out Arnold dropped out in April and I missed it.

[VPH]

Secretary of State race could get interesting, especially if Brian McClendon (creator of Google Earth) wins the Democratic nomination. VPH, any insight on that primary? I would love to see Schwab take down Arnold on the GOP side - Schwab has butted heads with Kobach on a couple occasions over Kobach's criticism of the legislature.

Even if Democrats field a candidate in the three races (Treasurer, Insurance Commissioner, Attorney General) I don't see them being able to seriously contest any of them - Republicans have strong candidates in each race.

EDIT: Turns out Arnold dropped out in April and I missed it.

Francisco is respected among the liberal wing of the party but McClendon has money and tbh he could help fund a good coordinated campaign. I've heard Dems have candidates for Treasurer and Insurance Commissioner but I still haven't heard any names, so...

[VPH]

Joshua Svaty announced his running mate today-Katrina Lewison. Lewison is a West Point grad who flew Blackhawk helicopters in Iraq. She serves on the Manhattan, KS School Board and helps run a municipal government consulting firm. Lewison is originally from Hutchinson, Kansas (South Central KS) and also has a masters degree from Columbia.

Personally, I think she plays to his strengths and covers a couple of gaps. Being a leader in Manhattan reinforces Svaty's central Kansas credentials but also adds direct outreach in a college town, which is always helpful. Lewison is female, bringing gender balance to the ticket, and has been strongly pro-choice, which should assuage the fears of some. Lewison was also a registered independent who became a Democrat to join the ticket; this seems like an attempt to hit Orman and show that this ticket is dynamic. Lewison's Hutchinson roots help Svaty in South Central Kansas, and her background as a veteran should help in Leavenworth County and Sedgwick County, where there are large military bases (and it helps in the general obviously). All around, a stellar pick!

http://www.ksnt.com/news/local-news/svaty-announces-running-mate-for-lt-governor/1182393672?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_KSNT_News

[tmthforu94]

She is a strong pick and makes it more likely that I'll vote for Svaty over Kobach. Definitely shores up his base - it surprises me a little bit because I worry he's going to dominate rural areas but struggle in urban. Kelly will certainly win Shawnee and as a JoCo resident, she seems to have the edge in this area as well. Brewer should take care of Sedgwick, though I know you mentioned Svaty had some support down there. 2/3s of voters are in a small handful of cities (Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, JoCo, KCK) and I'm not convinced Svaty will win any of those areas. He'll have to rack up big margins in rural Kansas to win this, which he could very well do.

[VPH]

She is a strong pick and makes it more likely that I'll vote for Svaty over Kobach. Definitely shores up his base - it surprises me a little bit because I worry he's going to dominate rural areas but struggle in urban. Kelly will certainly win Shawnee and as a JoCo resident, she seems to have the edge in this area as well. Brewer should take care of Sedgwick, though I know you mentioned Svaty had some support down there. 2/3s of voters are in a small handful of cities (Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, JoCo, KCK) and I'm not convinced Svaty will win any of those areas. He'll have to rack up big margins in rural Kansas to win this, which he could very well do.

Svaty has good backing in Wyandotte too because Tom Burroughs and a number of KCK electeds (and their allied unions) are behind him.

[VPH]

State Senator Marci Francisco, who was running for Secretary of State, appears to have filed for State Treasurer, which ensures that that won't go uncontested. Still waiting on Democratic filings for Insurance Commissioner and Attorney General.
http://www.kssos.org/elections/elections_upcoming_candidate_display.asp

And on the GOP side for SoS, a former Brownback official has declared, which means there are four Republicans running.
http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180517/former-brownback-administration-official-running-for-kansas-secretary-of-state