Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[tmthforu94]

Andy Reid (coach of Kansas City Chiefs) is wading into the race and attending a fundraiser for Colyer tonight. The Falling Star and others have criticized it considering his silence on the NFL kneel policy, but hopefully it'll help Colyer gain a bit more traction!

http://www.kansas.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/pivot-point/article212140559.html

[smoltchanov]

2 tmthforu94. First of all - thanks for info about legslative candidates! But there is another question: how did it happen, that moderate wing of Republican party almost ignores statewide and federal elections this year? No serious candidates for governor, for example, where choice is, essentially, between rather bad conservative (Colyer) and atrocious conservative (Kobach), no serious moderate candidate in relatively moderate (by Kansas standards) KS-02, no serious moderate opponent to conservative Yoder in rather moderate KS-03, and so on. The only moderate i know running statewide is state Senator Vicky Schmidt (for Insurance commissioner). Why so???

[tmthforu94]

2 tmthforu94. First of all - thanks for info about legslative candidates! But there is another question: how did it happen, that moderate wing of Republican party almost ignores statewide and federal elections this year? No serious candidates for governor, for example, where choice is, essentially, between rather bad conservative (Colyer) and atrocious conservative (Kobach), no serious moderate candidate in relatively moderate (by Kansas standards) KS-02, no serious moderate opponent to conservative Yoder in rather moderate KS-03, and so on. The only moderate i know running statewide is state Senator Vicky Schmidt (for Insurance commissioner). Why so???

I'm not entirely sure - I think a moderate could only win in a split field, they're definitely not a majority in the party statewide. You're right that moderates missed an opportunity in the Governors race - I think someone just right of center could have jumped in and won against a divided conservative field. Problem is that there wasn't a big name wanting to do it - Lynn Jenkins was the best bet (she would have easily won the primary) but opted against it. I'm not sure if some of the smaller names would have been able to build up enough traction.

Regarding other statewide races, the Republicans running are all strong candidates who can appeal across the party. I'd even argue that Schmidt is more aligned with the moderates than the conservatives.

[smoltchanov]

^ Agree about Schmidt. But other seem to be a conservatives to me (few - with some (limited) appeal to moderates).

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[Progressive Pessimist]

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That makes sense. He associated with Trump, and now that cloud of corruption is following him.

[BBD]

It sure would be sweet to see Krazy Kris's political career flushed down the toilet. He's done enough harm to the state of Kansas. I just hope enough Republican primary voters aren't as krazy as him.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Judge orders Kobach to go back to school

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[tmthforu94]

Judge orders Kobach to go back to school

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I would make a post every time Kobach is involved in another controversy, but I am afraid I'll be reported for spamming the thread.

[tmthforu94]

Ted Nugent is campaigning for Kobach this weekend. No need to post an article, I'm sure everyone can infer what is happening.

[tmthforu94]

Also, 3rd GOP debate happened today. Colyer finally went after Kris Kobach on a number of issues. He had previously declined to attack Kobach.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMTnLiMJdAM&feature=youtu.be

[tmthforu94]

Governor Colyer assists after a wreck in Lenexa (KC suburb) this afternoon.

https://www.kshb.com/news/local-news/kansas-governor-helps-after-bad-wreck-on-k10

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[VPH]

Going to do "Tmth Ratings" a few times leading up to the primary and then after on how I think the results would be if the election were today. I encourage VPH to do something similar so we can have two different perspectives!

Republican Primary:
Colyer: 42%
Kobach: 39%
Selzer: 9%
Barnett: 6%
Others: 4%

Democratic Primary:
Kelly: 41%
Svaty: 36%
Brewer: 16%
Others: 7%

General Election Ratings:
Governor/Lt. Governor: Lean Republican
Secretary of State: Likely Republican
Attorney General: Safe Republican
Treasurer: Safe Republican
Insurance Commissioner: Safe Republican
State Legislature: Safe Republican - Democrats pick up 1-5 seats, will be very difficult to predict until after primary

I'm a little late to the game because I've been super busy but here's my take on the race rn. I agree with most of your thoughts on this!
Republican Primary:
Colyer: 41%
Kobach: 40%
Barnett: 10%
Selzer: 7%
Others: 2%

Democratic Primary:
Svaty: 42%
Kelly: 42%
Brewer: 14%
Others: 3%

General Election Ratings:
Governor/Lt. Governor: Lean Republican but this is super contingent on what happens with Greg Orman-Does he take GOP moderates? Does he fall flat? Does he take socially liberal Democrats?
Secretary of State: Likely Republican-McClendon is a very unique candidate with a lot of money. Could be interesting but an uphill climb to say the least.
Attorney General: Safe Republican
Treasurer: Safe Republican
Insurance Commissioner: Safe Republican
State Legislature: Safe Republican - I think Dems pick up 3-5 seats, a few in Johnson County and then potential wild cards like:
-The 85th, where Michael Capps (GOP) doesn't even live in the district and the Democratic candidate is well-known activist Monica Marks.
-The 97th, where Democrat Rebecca Jenek is putting together a formidable campaign in this open seat.

That being said, I'm pretty concerned about holding some of our current seats. Namely, the 79th will be rough. Trump won 70% in the district and incumbent Ed Trimmer, a great legislator, won by <100 votes in 2012 and by 17 votes in 2014. He's one of my favorite reps, and he's campaigning hard. His website is quite the throwback! http://edtrimmer.com/

[tmthforu94]

Colyer wins key straw poll in Johnson County, Kobach accuses Colyer of voter fraud (no joke) in it: https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article214228689.html

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[KingSweden]

Colyer wins key straw poll in Johnson County, Kobach accuses Colyer of voter fraud (no joke) in it: https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article214228689.html

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Kris Kobach is beyond parody

[smoltchanov]

Colyer wins key straw poll in Johnson County, Kobach accuses Colyer of voter fraud (no joke) in it: https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article214228689.html

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Johnson county, IIRC, was anti-Brownback hotbed in 2016 elections. So, it's not surprising, that it prefers slightly more sane candidate..

[TheSaint250]

Real talk though, can we get a damn GE poll of Kansas?

[tmthforu94]

Colyer wins key straw poll in Johnson County, Kobach accuses Colyer of voter fraud (no joke) in it: https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article214228689.html

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Johnson county, IIRC, was anti-Brownback hotbed in 2016 elections. So, it's not surprising, that it prefers slightly more sane candidate..

Yes it was. That being said, Olathe/Gardner is still a very conservative part of the county and the Olathe GOP Picnic is known to be a hotbed (stealing your word ) for very conservative political activists. Kobach easily won this straw poll 1 year ago, so it was a bit of an upset to see Colyer win.

[smoltchanov]

Colyer wins key straw poll in Johnson County, Kobach accuses Colyer of voter fraud (no joke) in it: https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article214228689.html

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Johnson county, IIRC, was anti-Brownback hotbed in 2016 elections. So, it's not surprising, that it prefers slightly more sane candidate..

Yes it was. That being said, Olathe/Gardner is still a very conservative part of the county and the Olathe GOP Picnic is known to be a hotbed (stealing your word ) for very conservative political activists. Kobach easily won this straw poll 1 year ago, so it was a bit of an upset to see Colyer win.

Thanks! Very interesting info! And, one question. I noticed by election results that Olathe area is much more conservative, then some other parts of Johnson county. Why?

[VPH]

Kansas Democrats had their only televised debate last night!
http://www.kwch.com/content/news/Democratic-Gubernatorial-Forum-Tonight-487902871.html

Josh Svaty did very well, and Laura Kelly and Carl Brewer underwhelmed. The WHOLE debate, teenager Jack Bergeson was going after Laura Kelly and she simply didn't answer his attacks. Brewer seemed kinda flustered.

[tmthforu94]

Colyer picked up a couple big endorsements in Wichita:
https://www.bizjournals.com/wichita/news/2018/07/09/gov-colyer-picks-up-wichita-endorsements.html

Momentum seems to be swinging Colyer's way, Kobach has not ran a good campaign and it has been one controversy after another. I'm hopeful that enough Republicans realize that Kobach is toxic and would probably lose in November, taking a lot of Republicans down with him. The attack ads write themselves.

[tmthforu94]

NRA endorses Colyer over Kobach
https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article214988005.html

[tmthforu94]

I said at the beginning of the year that this race will largely be contingent on how Colyer performs as governor. His administration has been scandal-free to this point and he was able to get out of the budget/education battle relatively unscathed.

TV ads have started, Colyer is touting himself as the "pro-education, reasonable conservative" candidate, so he is definitely becoming the choice of moderate Republicans. The establishment of the party is also mostly backing him and he is securing good endorsements, recently from three of the most influential groups in the KSGOP (Farm Bureau, NRA, Kansans for Life (joint endorsement of Colyer and Kobach). Colyer's support isn't as solid as Kobach's and his supporters probably aren't as enthusiastic, but he has cast a wider net than Kobach and from what I've seen, is increasingly becoming favored to win.

At least in Johnson County, the Democratic race has seemed relatively quiet up to this point, I haven't seen a single ad for Kelly/Svaty/Brewer. I still maintain that this race is Likely R if Colyer is the nominee, Toss-up with Kobach. Colyer will win over enough moderate Republicans to win, whereas I think Kobach would lose almost all moderate GOP support to Orman and the Democratic nominee.

[smoltchanov]

I said at the beginning of the year that this race will largely be contingent on how Colyer performs as governor. His administration has been scandal-free to this point and he was able to get out of the budget/education battle relatively unscathed.

TV ads have started, Colyer is touting himself as the "pro-education, reasonable conservative" candidate, so he is definitely becoming the choice of moderate Republicans. The establishment of the party is also mostly backing him and he is securing good endorsements, recently from three of the most influential groups in the KSGOP (Farm Bureau, NRA, Kansans for Life (joint endorsement of Colyer and Kobach). Colyer's support isn't as solid as Kobach's and his supporters probably aren't as enthusiastic, but he has cast a wider net than Kobach and from what I've seen, is increasingly becoming favored to win.

At least in Johnson County, the Democratic race has seemed relatively quiet up to this point, I haven't seen a single ad for Kelly/Svaty/Brewer. I still maintain that this race is Likely R if Colyer is the nominee, Toss-up with Kobach. Colyer will win over enough moderate Republicans to win, whereas I think Kobach would lose almost all moderate GOP support to Orman and the Democratic nominee.

I thought that Jim Barnett, not Colyer, is a "moderate's choice". Am i wrong?

[TheSaint250]

I said at the beginning of the year that this race will largely be contingent on how Colyer performs as governor. His administration has been scandal-free to this point and he was able to get out of the budget/education battle relatively unscathed.

TV ads have started, Colyer is touting himself as the "pro-education, reasonable conservative" candidate, so he is definitely becoming the choice of moderate Republicans. The establishment of the party is also mostly backing him and he is securing good endorsements, recently from three of the most influential groups in the KSGOP (Farm Bureau, NRA, Kansans for Life (joint endorsement of Colyer and Kobach). Colyer's support isn't as solid as Kobach's and his supporters probably aren't as enthusiastic, but he has cast a wider net than Kobach and from what I've seen, is increasingly becoming favored to win.

At least in Johnson County, the Democratic race has seemed relatively quiet up to this point, I haven't seen a single ad for Kelly/Svaty/Brewer. I still maintain that this race is Likely R if Colyer is the nominee, Toss-up with Kobach. Colyer will win over enough moderate Republicans to win, whereas I think Kobach would lose almost all moderate GOP support to Orman and the Democratic nominee.

I thought that Jim Barnett, not Colyer, is a "moderate's choice". Am i wrong?

I don't know much about Barnett, but I assume Colyer is becoming the "moderate's choice" since the race will likely be between Colyer and Kobach. Colyer is probably making outreach attempts to moderates with that in mind.