Why is WV-Sen often rated toss-up?

[Sir Mohamed]

I actually don't get it why WV often gets rated as toss-up. I think Manchin is just doing fine and will easily win reelection. The Republican candidates aren't that strong and Jim Justice backs Manchin, who is a perfect fit for the state. Generally, I'd consider WV more pro coal and pro guns rather than pro Republican. So, I'd be surpised if Manchin doesn't win by eight points or more. He could easily win with 55% or 60%.

[Brittain33]

I actually don't get it why WV often gets rated as toss-up. I think Manchin is just doing fine and will easily win reelection. The Republican candidates aren't that strong, Jim Justice backs Manchin, who is a perfect fir for the state. Generally, I'd consider WV more pro coal and pro guns rather than pro Republican. So, I'd surpised if Manchin doesn't win by eight points or more. He could easily win with 55% or 60%.

Whatever Manchin's strengths, the swing in that state has been so complete, and Senate voting so polarized in 2016, it's hard to feel confident that the unthinkable won't happen. I think an easy reelection is a good possibility but I think a Ben Nelson collapse ca. 1996 is a possibility as well. Trump's incredible victory there has to be a major thumb on the scale.

[DemocraticKing]

It's a Lean D race at a minimum. If Manchin was Tossup, Claire would be Lean R, and none of that is even close to being accurate.

[Mycool]

There’s a pretty clear ignoring of polling for some of these ratings. Not only is Manchin up, but he’s above 50% in most early polls. I wouldn’t put it much past Lean D, but that seems like a fair rating for WV, ND, and MT, due to the individual brands of the three candidates. As it was said, if WV is Tossup, McCaskill and Donnelly would be closer to Lean R in their races.

[Free Bird]

I admit it's Lean D, but there hasn't been polling in a while, and for WV standards, Manchin has made some big missteps vote-wise. The fact that Pence went after him and that the RNC, in general, is going after him with more fervor seem to indicate that they may have some internals that look promising.

[Greedo punched first]

Manchin has a major Republican endorsement in the state, Jim Justice. This race is lean D.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I have this Race at Lean D.

[morgieb]

Because Trump won it by 40 points, his approvals remain solid here and unlike Montana or North Dakota the Republicans got a strong recruit.

[RINO Tom]

Manchin has a major Republican endorsement in the state, Jim Justice. This race is lean D.

I honestly don't think that helps him at ALL.

[Free Bird]

I have this Race at Lean D.

Right now I do too (as well as my endorsement), but we really will have to see what the next polling has him at after his vote against the tax cut and Pence's assault on him.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Because Trump won it by 40 points, his approvals remain solid here and unlike Montana or North Dakota the Republicans got a strong recruit.