Benenson Strategy (D internal): Menendez +14

[TheRocketRaccoon]

http://politicsdw.com/2018/01/menendez-internal-poll-gives-him-14-point-lead/

Menendez at 47-33 against generic R

'6 point lead' amongst those aware of corruption trial (51-34 after message testing)

51-38 at independents

Approval 54-36 (Trump approval 34-64)

No time frame specified

[Young Conservative]

Disappointing for a D internal, in a blue state. Generic R (unlike generic D) also usually underperforms the Republican.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Menendez is under 50 against the ever-unpopular Generic R, he can't be doing all that well against an actual named candidate. Still Likely D, but it's amazing for Rs that Menendez isn't over 50.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Should have been Safe D, instead it is now Likely D because of such a terrible candidate. Reluctantly endorsed though, better than NJ GOP.

[NewYorkExpress]

If Leonard Lance, Thomas Kean Jr or Jeff Chisea runs, this could be really close.

[Senator Incitatus]

If Leonard Lance, Thomas Kean Jr or Jeff Chisea runs, this could be really close.

I doubt Lance runs as that would essentially forfeit his seat to the Democrats for at least one cycle (even if Kean tries running for CD7, I think he'd face a primary fight with pro-Trump Sen. Doherty which would be extremely ugly). Chiesa or Kean are more likely, but at this point I assume the nominee will be SomeGuy™.

[NewYorkExpress]

If Leonard Lance, Thomas Kean Jr or Jeff Chisea runs, this could be really close.

I doubt Lance runs as that would essentially forfeit his seat to the Democrats for at least one cycle (even if Kean tries running for CD7, I think he'd face a primary fight with pro-Trump Sen. Doherty which would be extremely ugly). Chiesa or Kean are more likely, but at this point I assume the nominee will be SomeGuy™.

As a Democrat, I'd be fine with trading Menendez for a House seat.

[Babeuf]

If Leonard Lance, Thomas Kean Jr or Jeff Chisea runs, this could be really close.

I doubt Lance runs as that would essentially forfeit his seat to the Democrats for at least one cycle (even if Kean tries running for CD7, I think he'd face a primary fight with pro-Trump Sen. Doherty which would be extremely ugly). Chiesa or Kean are more likely, but at this point I assume the nominee will be SomeGuy™.

As a Democrat, I'd be fine with trading Menendez for a House seat.

As much as I dislike Menendez, I wouldn't. A 6-year Senate term is worth so much more than a 2-year House term.

[NewYorkExpress]

If Leonard Lance, Thomas Kean Jr or Jeff Chisea runs, this could be really close.

I doubt Lance runs as that would essentially forfeit his seat to the Democrats for at least one cycle (even if Kean tries running for CD7, I think he'd face a primary fight with pro-Trump Sen. Doherty which would be extremely ugly). Chiesa or Kean are more likely, but at this point I assume the nominee will be SomeGuy™.

As a Democrat, I'd be fine with trading Menendez for a House seat.

As much as I dislike Menendez, I wouldn't. A 6-year Senate term is worth so much more than a 2-year House term.

The right Democrat will win re-election in 2020, and any competent Democrat should beat Lance, should he run in 2024.

[BudgieForce]

If Leonard Lance, Thomas Kean Jr or Jeff Chisea runs, this could be really close.

Nope. The closest any Republican is getting to Menendez is -10 points. NJ voters are more or less ambivalent to corruption, more so now because Menendez won his court case.

Edit: And If Dems hold every seat and win AZ and NV but lose NJ, republicans keep the Senate. Why would you risk that?

[NewYorkExpress]

If Leonard Lance, Thomas Kean Jr or Jeff Chisea runs, this could be really close.

Nope. The closest any Republican is getting to Menendez is -10 points. NJ voters are more or less ambivalent to corruption, more so now because Menendez won his court case.

Edit: And If Dems hold every seat and win AZ and NV but lose NJ, republicans keep the Senate. Why would you risk that?

1. I think the House seat is equally important.

2. Whichever Republican beats Menendez this year is losing in 2024.

3. I still think we'll beat Ted Cruz.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Leonard Lance, Thomas Kean Jr or Jeff Chisea runs, this could be really close.

Nope. The closest any Republican is getting to Menendez is -10 points. NJ voters are more or less ambivalent to corruption, more so now because Menendez won his court case.

Edit: And If Dems hold every seat and win AZ and NV but lose NJ, republicans keep the Senate. Why would you risk that?

1. I think the House seat is equally important.

2. Whichever Republican beats Menendez this year is losing in 2024.

3. I still think we'll beat Ted Cruz.

1. 1 house seat≠ 1 senate seat

2. So what? Hardly any dems beside you want the GOP to hold a senate seat for a full term here except you.

3.
 

[ProgressiveCanadian]

If Leonard Lance, Thomas Kean Jr or Jeff Chisea runs, this could be really close.

Nope. The closest any Republican is getting to Menendez is -10 points. NJ voters are more or less ambivalent to corruption, more so now because Menendez won his court case.

Edit: And If Dems hold every seat and win AZ and NV but lose NJ, republicans keep the Senate. Why would you risk that?

1. I think the House seat is equally important.

2. Whichever Republican beats Menendez this year is losing in 2024.

3. I still think we'll beat Ted Cruz.

1. 1 house seat≠ 1 senate seat

2. So what? Hardly any dems beside you want the GOP to hold a senate seat for a full term here except you.

3.
 

Menendez is doing nothing to help the Democratic party, if anything he's hurting it.

[BudgieForce]

If Leonard Lance, Thomas Kean Jr or Jeff Chisea runs, this could be really close.

Nope. The closest any Republican is getting to Menendez is -10 points. NJ voters are more or less ambivalent to corruption, more so now because Menendez won his court case.

Edit: And If Dems hold every seat and win AZ and NV but lose NJ, republicans keep the Senate. Why would you risk that?

1. I think the House seat is equally important.

2. Whichever Republican beats Menendez this year is losing in 2024.

3. I still think we'll beat Ted Cruz.

1. 1 house seat≠ 1 senate seat

2. So what? Hardly any dems beside you want the GOP to hold a senate seat for a full term here except you.

3.
 [img]https://i.imgflip.com/xfk8y.jpg

Menendez is doing nothing to help the Democratic party, if anything he's hurting it.

His voting record says otherwise.

[King Lear]

This race is Safe Democratic, Bob Menendez will win reelection by at least 10 points. Honestly, I’m really happy Bob Menendez beat back those falsified charges, because in my view the worst Democrat is better then the best Republican.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

This race is Safe Democratic, Bob Menendez will win reelection by at least 10 points. Honestly, I’m really happy Bob Menendez beat back those falsified charges, because in my view the worst Democrat is better then the best Republican.

No wonder Democrats have sh*tty candidates if this is the thought process.

[IceSpear]

Menendez will win re-election easily. Now that the charges have been dismissed, the voters (who have the attention span of a goldfish) will forget in a month.