Will the Catholic and Jewish vote move closer together or further apart?

[SingingAnalyst]

Since 1960, the long-term answer has been, "grow wider".

The gap grew wider from 1960-1964 and from 1964-1968. It narrowed somewhat from 1968 to 1980, then grew sharply wider from 1980 to 1984 (in one of the more overlooked voter trends between those two consecutive Reagan landslide years).

It then fluctuated from year to year through 2012, then grew sharply wider again in 2016. (The "blip" in 1992 is because Jewish voters were less likely to vote for Perot than the national average).

Here are "my" numbers (from a distillation of various sources):

Year  JewishD% / CatholicD% / Difference
1960  78/78/0
1964  90/76/14
1968  81/59/22
1972  61/47/14
1976  65/56/9
1980  47/44/3
1984  67/44/23
1988  69/49/20
1992  78/44/34
1996  78/53/25
2000  79/50/29
2004  75/47/28
2008  79/54/25
2012  74/50/24
2016  77/45/32

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Most likely grow wider.

[dw93]

Wider. A lot of Catholic voters seem to be going increasingly Republican over the Social Issues.

[PoliticalShelter]

Considering that the Catholic vote is going to become increasingly non-White over the next couple of decades, I would suspect that gap will probably end up narrowing.

Also the fact that Hillary did worse than Al Gore with Jews, suggest that there is a long term trend of Jews moving away from the Democratic Party.

Your figures for Jews are also wrong. Obama actually got 69% in 2012 and Hillary got 71% in 2016.

Source:http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/how-the-faithful-voted-a-preliminary-2016-analysis/

[SingingAnalyst]

Considering that the Catholic vote is going to become increasingly non-White over the next couple of decades, I would suspect that gap will probably end up narrowing.

Also the fact that Hillary did worse than Al Gore with Jews, suggest that there is a long term trend of Jews moving away from the Democratic Party.

Your figures for Jews are also wrong. Obama actually got 69% in 2012 and Hillary got 71% in 2016.

Source:http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/how-the-faithful-voted-a-preliminary-2016-analysis/

I don't doubt that all my figures are probably off by a few percentage points. I distilled many sources (various polls as well as returns from heavily Jewish areas in the places I've lived). Still, I think the overall trend is preserved if the numbers are adjusted to reflect the above link.

[catographer]

partisan divisions over religion will continue trending towards the eventual outcome of democratic religious minorities and nonreligious, republican practicing christians

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

partisan divisions over religion will continue trending towards the eventual outcome of democratic religious minorities and nonreligious, republican practicing WHITE NON-HISPANIC christians

FTFY

[Soonerdem]

Since 1960, the long-term answer has been, "grow wider".

The gap grew wider from 1960-1964 and from 1964-1968. It narrowed somewhat from 1968 to 1980, then grew sharply wider from 1980 to 1984 (in one of the more overlooked voter trends between those two consecutive Reagan landslide years).

It then fluctuated from year to year through 2012, then grew sharply wider again in 2016. (The "blip" in 1992 is because Jewish voters were less likely to vote for Perot than the national average).

Here are "my" numbers (from a distillation of various sources):

Year  JewishD% / CatholicD% / Difference
1960  78/78/0
1964  90/76/14
1968  81/59/22
1972  61/47/14
1976  65/56/9
1980  47/44/3
1984  67/44/23
1988  69/49/20
1992  78/44/34
1996  78/53/25
2000  79/50/29
2004  75/47/28
2008  79/54/25
2012  74/50/24
2016  77/45/32

Why did reagan do so well with Jews in 80 and so bad in 84?

[SingingAnalyst]

Since 1960, the long-term answer has been, "grow wider".

The gap grew wider from 1960-1964 and from 1964-1968. It narrowed somewhat from 1968 to 1980, then grew sharply wider from 1980 to 1984 (in one of the more overlooked voter trends between those two consecutive Reagan landslide years).

It then fluctuated from year to year through 2012, then grew sharply wider again in 2016. (The "blip" in 1992 is because Jewish voters were less likely to vote for Perot than the national average).

Here are "my" numbers (from a distillation of various sources):

Year  JewishD% / CatholicD% / Difference
1960  78/78/0
1964  90/76/14
1968  81/59/22
1972  61/47/14
1976  65/56/9
1980  47/44/3
1984  67/44/23
1988  69/49/20
1992  78/44/34
1996  78/53/25
2000  79/50/29
2004  75/47/28
2008  79/54/25
2012  74/50/24
2016  77/45/32

Why did reagan do so well with Jews in 80 and so bad in 84?

Excellent question with a minor FA: Reagan did not do "so well" in '80, winning about 36% of the Jewish vote (again, my personal distillation of a number of polls as well as actual precinct returns). Many Jews voted for Anderson in '80. But I think the reason Reagan lost share of the Jewish vote from '80 to '84 is the same reason he gained hugely among Evangelical Christians (from 63% to 80%): his vocal support of the religious right, which was much more evident in 1984 than in 1980.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

In the short run, it will continue to grow wider as white catholics whose families have always been democrat are finally breaking away. The disappearance of pro-life democrat candidates and the racial polarization of politics should keep driving this trend. Jews have always been at the forefront of social liberalism and put-off by Christian zealots (even when they've decided the 11th commandment is "thou shalt not criticize Israel")

In the long run, the higher birthrates of Hispanic Catholics and Orthodox Jews could cause the Catholic vote to begin trending left and the Jewish vote right though