Estimates to 2100
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 12:46:44 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 100% pro-life no matter what)
  Estimates to 2100
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Estimates to 2100  (Read 610 times)
Cokeland Saxton
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,604
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -6.26

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 30, 2018, 02:21:16 PM »
« edited: February 06, 2018, 09:47:31 PM by Cokeland Saxton »

Obviously, the 2100 estimates wouldn't be accurate, but let's see what would happen if current rates for the 50 states and DC held through 2100:

Here's 2020:
AL - 4,915,481
AK - 752,419
AZ - 7,284,343
AR - 3,042,177
CA - 40,517,403
CO - 5,854,487
CT -  3,594,112
DC - 733,500
DE - 989,433
FL - 21,920,447
GA - 10,747,482
HI - 1,456,338
ID - 1,780,930
IL - 12,790,857
IN - 6,745,099
IA - 3,188,315
KS - 2,938,712
KY - 4,503,829
LA - 4,740,547
ME - 1,339,212
MD - 6,171,927
MA - 6,993,523
MI - 10,024,975
MN - 5,693,233
MS - 2,991,332
MO - 6,166,798
MT - 1,069,953
NE - 1,960,212
NV - 3,125,617
NH - 1,354,121
NJ - 9,096,973
NM - 2,100,363
NY - 20,050,522
NC - 10,590,107
ND - 790,900
OH - 11,701,476
OK - 4,007,943
OR - 4,276,628
PA - 12,901,806
RI - 1,062,672
SC - 5,195,671
SD - 893,400
TN - 6,874,735
TX - 29,656,675
UT - 3,246,736
VT - 622,800
VA - 8,670,710
WA - 7,697,581
WV - 1,799,998
WI - 5,842,241
WY - 586,002
United States - 333,012,937

With these projections, the reapportionment would be as follows:
TX (39) +3
FL (29) +2
AZ (10), CO [8], NC (14), OR (6) +1
AL (6), IL (17), MI (13), MN (7), PA (17), RI (1), WV (2) -1

Texas would just gain its 39th seat by 368,724
Illinois would just miss losing 2 seats by 243,584
Florida would just gain its 29th seat by 241,264
Arizona would just gain a 10th seat by a slim 66,854

California would miss out on a 54th seat by 560,097
New York would lose its 27th seat by 293,543
Alabama would just lose its 7th seat by 60,673
Minnesota would just lost its 8th seat by 52,735
And poor Montana would just miss out on a 2nd seat by a paltry 15,933. Oof.
Logged
HillGoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,881
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.74, S: -8.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2018, 05:50:46 PM »

the USA is pretty much flat in terms of population growth, that's why we need lots of immigrants so we have more innovation to kick the Russkies asses.
Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,451
Puerto Rico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2018, 06:33:07 PM »

the USA is pretty much flat in terms of population growth, that's why we need lots of immigrants so we have more innovation to kick the Russkies asses.

Tell that to your party.
Logged
Cokeland Saxton
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,604
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -6.26

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2018, 02:21:14 PM »
« Edited: February 06, 2018, 09:44:50 PM by Cokeland Saxton »

Here's 2030:
AL - 5,055,081
AK - 797,113
AZ - 8,301,237
AR - 3,173,903
CA - 44,066,728
CO - 6,815,208
CT -  3,614,239
DC - 894,137
DE - 1,090,256
FL - 25,557,049
GA - 11,923,256
HI - 1,559,155
ID - 2,023,315
IL - 12,751,205
IN - 7,016,926
IA - 3,614,239
KS - 3,026,873
KY - 4,674,524
LA - 4,966,197
ME - 1,350,060
MD - 6,597,790
MA - 7,469,782
MI - 10,168,332
MN - 6,111,116
MS - 2,972,785
MO - 6,349,952
MT - 1,157,047
NE - 2,103,896
NV - 3,617,589
NH - 1,392,848
NJ - 9,412,638
NM - 2,142,370
NY - 20,746,275
NC - 11,761,373
ND - 930,019
OH - 11,878,168
OK - 4,282,086
OR - 4,774,000
PA - 13,051,467
RI - 1,072,874
SC - 5,836,297
SD - 980,327
TN - 7,447,400
TX - 34,977,082
UT - 3,813,941
VT - 619,873
VA - 9,396,448
WA - 8,811,421
WV - 1,748,518
WI - 6,001,734
WY - 609,266
United States - 359,143,443

Reapportionment (from 2020):
TX +3 (42)
FL +2 (31)
CA +1 (54)
UT +1 (5)
GA +1 (15)
WI -1 (7)
IL -1 (16)
MI -1 (12)
NY -1 (25)
NJ -1 (11)
CT -1 (4)
MO -1 (7)
OH -1 (14)

Illinois would just miss losing 2 seats by 59,208
Georgia would just gain its 15th seat by 50,980

Michigan would just lose its 13th seat by 69,363
Virginia would just miss out on a 12th seat by 20,861
Ohio would just lose its 15th seat by 5,892
New Jersey would just lose its 12th seat by 4,671
And again, poor Montana would just miss out on a 2nd seat by a paltry 2,144. Oof.

Also guys, this is hypothetical.
Logged
Cokeland Saxton
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,604
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -6.26

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2018, 05:20:50 PM »
« Edited: February 06, 2018, 09:45:40 PM by Cokeland Saxton »

And 2040:

AL - 5,198,645
AK - 836,490
AZ - 9,460,090
AR - 3,310,063
CA - 47,926,973
CO - 7,933,583
CT -  3,634,479
DC - 1,089,953
DE - 1,201,353
FL - 29,796,963
GA - 13,227,660
HI - 1,669,231
ID - 2,299,256
IL - 12,711,676
IN - 7,444,654
IA - 3,779,410
KS - 3,117,679
KY - 4,851,688
LA - 5,202,588
ME - 1,360,995
MD - 7,053,038
MA - 7,978,474
MI - 10,284,251
MN - 6,559,672
MS - 2,972,785
MO - 6,538,546
MT - 1,251,231
NE - 2,258,112
NV - 4,186,998
NH - 1,432,683
NJ - 9,739,257
NM - 2,185,217
NY - 21,466,171
NC - 13,062,180
ND - 1,093,609
OH - 12,057,528
OK - 4,574,981
OR - 5,329,216
PA - 13,202,864
RI - 1,083,174
SC - 6,555,912
SD - 1,075,713
TN - 8,067,768
TX - 41,251,971
UT - 4,480,236
VT - 616,960
VA - 10,182,931
WA - 10,086,434
WV - 1,698,510
WI - 6,165,581
WY - 633,453
United States - 390,070,500

Reapportionment (from 2030):
TX +3 (45)
FL +2 (33)
CO +1 (9)
NC +1 (15)
ID +1 (3)
NV +1 (5)
AZ +1 (11)
WA +1 (11)
NM -1 (2)
MI -1 (11)
NY -1 (24)
PA -1 (15)
OH -1 (13)
CA -1 (53)
KY -1 (5)
MS -1 (3)
IN -1 [8]
IL -2 (14)
Logged
Cokeland Saxton
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,604
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -6.26

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2018, 09:41:05 PM »
« Edited: February 06, 2018, 09:45:05 PM by Cokeland Saxton »

By population order 2040 (checking up):

1. California (53) - 47,926,973
2. Texas (45) - 41,251,971
3. Florida (33) - 29,796,963
4. New York (24) - 21,466,171
5. Georgia (15) - 13,227,660
6. Pennsylvania (15) - 13,202,864
7. North Carolina (15) - 13,062,180
8. Illinois (14) - 12,711,676
9. Ohio (13) - 12,057,528
10. Michigan (11) - 10,284,251
11. Virginia (11) - 10,182,931
12. Washington (11) - 10,086,434
13. New Jersey (11) - 9,739,257
14. Arizona (11) - 9,460,090
15. Tennessee (9) - 8,067,768
16. Massachusetts (9) - 7,978,474
17. Colorado (9) - 7,933,583
18. Indiana [8] - 7,444,654
19. Maryland [8] - 7,053,038
20. Minnesota (7) - 6,559,672
21. South Carolina (7) - 6,555,912
22. Missouri (7) - 6,538,546
23. Wisconsin (7) - 6,165,581
24. Oregon (6) - 5,329,216
25. Louisiana (6) - 5,202,588
26. Alabama (6) - 5,198,645
27. Kentucky (5) - 4,851,688
28. Oklahoma (5) - 4,574,981
29. Utah (5) - 4,480,236
30. Nevada (5) - 4,186,998
31. Iowa (4) - 3,779,410
32. Connecticut (4) - 3,634,479
33. Arkansas (4) - 3,310,063
34. Kansas (4) - 3,117,679
35. Mississippi (3) - 2,954,353
36. Idaho (3) - 2,299,256
37. Nebraska (3) - 2,258,112
38. New Mexico (2) - 2,185,217
39. West Virginia (2) - 1,698,510
40. Hawaii (2) - 1,669,231
41. New Hampshire (2) - 1,432,683
42. Maine (2) - 1,360,995
43. Montana (1) - 1,251,231
44. Delaware (1) - 1,201,353
45. North Dakota (1) - 1,093,609
46. Rhode Island (1) - 1,083,174
47. South Dakota (1) - 1,075,713
48. Alaska (1) - 836,490
49. Wyoming (1) - 633,453
50. Vermont (1) - 616,960
Logged
AtorBoltox
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,043


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2018, 10:44:56 PM »

The northeast and midwest will hold the vast majority of electoral votes as people flee there to avoid the worst effects of climate change
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,971


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2018, 09:48:16 AM »

The northeast and midwest will hold the vast majority of electoral votes as people flee there to avoid the worst effects of climate change

It pains me to say this living in Boston but the northeast is going to be heavily hit by sea level rise which will hurt our ability to sustain population.
Logged
Cokeland Saxton
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,604
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -6.26

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2018, 09:51:47 AM »

This is in no way meant to be accurate. These are just projections. I will do 2050 in the next couple days.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.037 seconds with 11 queries.