MA-07: Boston City Councillor to Challenge Capuano

[Brittain33]

The poll was conducted before Healey’s endorsement, FYI, but Pressley is still an obvious underdog.

That's a good point. Primaries are inherently more volatile than general elections so I wouldn't count out Pressley.

[Zaybay]

The poll was conducted before Healey’s endorsement, FYI, but Pressley is still an obvious underdog.

That's a good point. Primaries are inherently more volatile than general elections so I wouldn't count out Pressley.

TBH, I dont think any voters really care about endorsements, unless its from actually powerful and popular politicians, such as Sanders, Biden, Obama, and Clinton(before 2016). AOC has endorsed many candidates and it doesnt seem like it helped, while when the big 3 endorse someone, everything becomes more interesting.
Anyway, bottom line is that Pressley needs to get the undecided vote by a large margin to win, and I dont see her doing that. Best case, she gets a close race, but I dont see a victory in sight for her.


Tilt C->Lean C

[Jeppe]

The poll was conducted before Healey’s endorsement, FYI, but Pressley is still an obvious underdog.

That's a good point. Primaries are inherently more volatile than general elections so I wouldn't count out Pressley.

TBH, I dont think any voters really care about endorsements, unless its from actually powerful and popular politicians, such as Sanders, Biden, Obama, and Clinton(before 2016). AOC has endorsed many candidates and it doesnt seem like it helped, while when the big 3 endorse someone, everything becomes more interesting.
Anyway, bottom line is that Pressley needs to get the undecided vote by a large margin to win, and I dont see her doing that. Best case, she gets a close race, but I dont see a victory in sight for her.


Tilt C->Lean C

Of course, primary polls can be inaccurate. Crowley was leading by 40 points in the only poll conducted of the race, meanwhile Marie Newman was leading by a “significant margin” according to a public poll conducted in the days before the primary. It all depends on who shows up, because primaries are such a low turnout affair. MA will have an especially low turnout primary, because it’s right after a national holiday.

[Zaybay]

The poll was conducted before Healey’s endorsement, FYI, but Pressley is still an obvious underdog.

That's a good point. Primaries are inherently more volatile than general elections so I wouldn't count out Pressley.

TBH, I dont think any voters really care about endorsements, unless its from actually powerful and popular politicians, such as Sanders, Biden, Obama, and Clinton(before 2016). AOC has endorsed many candidates and it doesnt seem like it helped, while when the big 3 endorse someone, everything becomes more interesting.
Anyway, bottom line is that Pressley needs to get the undecided vote by a large margin to win, and I dont see her doing that. Best case, she gets a close race, but I dont see a victory in sight for her.


Tilt C->Lean C

Of course, primary polls can be inaccurate. Crowley was leading by 40 points in the only poll conducted of the race, meanwhile Marie Newman was leading by a “significant margin” according to a public poll conducted in the days before the primary. It all depends on who shows up, because primaries are such a low turnout affair. MA will have an especially low turnout primary, because it’s right after a national holiday.

MA has rather decent turnout in primaries, so I have no idea what you are talking about. The reason Newman was leading was that the poll polled Dems and Indies, what they didnt poll was Rs, who were the ones to push Lipinski over the edge, according to exit polling. And, again, even if this is a low turnout affair, this implies that, like in NY, it was the progressive challenger's base who came out to vote. In this race, its a messy affair, as the Progressive base is split between the two candidates. Capuano will win the moderates, some/most progressives, and Rs who want to "prevent a radical Dem" by voting for a slightly less radical Dem.

[Brittain33]

Capuano will win the moderates, some/most progressives, and Rs who want to "prevent a radical Dem" by voting for a slightly less radical Dem.

The Dem primary is only open to Dems and unenrolled; registered Republicans can't vote in it. That said, probably all of the registered Rs in this district could fit into Capuano's car. The number of unenrolled is huge.

[Zaybay]

Capuano will win the moderates, some/most progressives, and Rs who want to "prevent a radical Dem" by voting for a slightly less radical Dem.

The Dem primary is only open to Dems and unenrolled; registered Republicans can't vote in it. That said, probably all of the registered Rs in this district could fit into Capuano's car. The number of unenrolled is huge.

Ah, didnt know that. And I live in the state.

Still, I think that Pressley doesnt have enough support, backing, or popularity to win this race.

[Strudelcutie4427]

For anyone interested, there is a debate at Umass Boston on Tuesday 8/7 at 3pm. Free to attend but you need to rsvp

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I bought Capuano shares on PredictIt.

[Zaybay]

I bought Capuano shares on PredictIt.

nice, I used to hang out on that website a lot, but this one is much better, not full of pumpers.

[MAINEiac4434]

It all comes down to turnout. Are there diehard Capuano supporters, the kind who’d show up to a primary? And if so, will they outnumber the Pressley diehards?

This cycle has seen progressive insurgents, particularly female progressive insurgents, pull off upsets all around the country. I’m not counting out Pressley until the votes are counted.

[I’m not Stu]

Capuano is leading by 13 in a new poll.

[Zaybay]

It all comes down to turnout. Are there diehard Capuano supporters, the kind who’d show up to a primary? And if so, will they outnumber the Pressley diehards?

This cycle has seen progressive insurgents, particularly female progressive insurgents, pull off upsets all around the country. I’m not counting out Pressley until the votes are counted.

I mean, normally I would agree with you. But it doesnt seem that the progressive diehards are united around Pressley. Many, including myself, have sided with Capuano. Pressley doesnt really have diehard support, and has had trouble with outreach, and unlike with AOC, where there was clear energy behind her, Pressley doesnt have that. Capuano is campaigning more than Pressley at this point.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah the difference is that in this race the incumbent is more progressive.

[Jeppe]

Yeah the difference is that in this race the incumbent is more progressive.

That’s untrue, Pressley and Capuano have the exact same platform except on ICE, where Pressley has called for abolishing it, while Capuano been more supportive of the organization (he voted present on a House motion affirming support for ICE, despite dozens of his progressive colleagues voting against the bill due to the child separations they were carrying out).

[Zaybay]

Yeah the difference is that in this race the incumbent is more progressive.

That’s untrue, Pressley and Capuano have the exact same platform except on ICE, where Pressley has called for abolishing it, while Capuano been more supportive of the organization (he voted present on a House motion affirming support for ICE, despite dozens of his progressive colleagues voting against the bill due to the child separations they were carrying out).

Thats one issue, and a relatively new one. On economic issues, Capuano is more Left, heavily supporting unionization, while Pressley doesnt seem to care about it. 

I should also mention that Capuano has been an effective member of the house Democrats, and will lead the transit board when we take back the house. He has really helped MA on that board, and helped the MBTA when it was at its lowest point. Pressley is the exact same as Capuano, except on one issue, and has shown to be a poor speaker(I was originally supporting her and went to one of her rallies), and an opportunist, changing all of her positions before running(she was originally one of the most moderate in Boston, and now shes running as an unabashed liberal, a total Gillibrand).

And shes not even really campaigning. AOC took her race seriously, as did Newman. Pressley has been campaigning less than Capuano. Shes just not the right choice for the district. We shouldnt throw the baby out with the bath water, and getting rid of great congressmen and congresswoman just so we can get some "fresh blood" into the Dem caucus is a terrible idea.

[Jeppe]

Yeah the difference is that in this race the incumbent is more progressive.

That’s untrue, Pressley and Capuano have the exact same platform except on ICE, where Pressley has called for abolishing it, while Capuano been more supportive of the organization (he voted present on a House motion affirming support for ICE, despite dozens of his progressive colleagues voting against the bill due to the child separations they were carrying out).

Thats one issue, and a relatively new one. On economic issues, Capuano is more Left, heavily supporting unionization, while Pressley doesnt seem to care about it. 

I should also mention that Capuano has been an effective member of the house Democrats, and will lead the transit board when we take back the house. He has really helped MA on that board, and helped the MBTA when it was at its lowest point. Pressley is the exact same as Capuano, except on one issue, and has shown to be a poor speaker(I was originally supporting her and went to one of her rallies), and an opportunist, changing all of her positions before running(she was originally one of the most moderate in Boston, and now shes running as an unabashed liberal, a total Gillibrand).

And shes not even really campaigning. AOC took her race seriously, as did Newman. Pressley has been campaigning less than Capuano. Shes just not the right choice for the district. We shouldnt throw the baby out with the bath water, and getting rid of great congressmen and congresswoman just so we can get some "fresh blood" into the Dem caucus is a terrible idea.

You keep making vague claims about how Pressley isn’t campaigning when you have no evidence.

Afiak, Capuano is the person who lost to Martha Choakley, an infamously bad campaigner, by 20 points, so I don’t think calling him an excellent campaigner while trashing Pressley is exactly based on reality.

[Zaybay]

Yeah the difference is that in this race the incumbent is more progressive.

That’s untrue, Pressley and Capuano have the exact same platform except on ICE, where Pressley has called for abolishing it, while Capuano been more supportive of the organization (he voted present on a House motion affirming support for ICE, despite dozens of his progressive colleagues voting against the bill due to the child separations they were carrying out).

Thats one issue, and a relatively new one. On economic issues, Capuano is more Left, heavily supporting unionization, while Pressley doesnt seem to care about it. 

I should also mention that Capuano has been an effective member of the house Democrats, and will lead the transit board when we take back the house. He has really helped MA on that board, and helped the MBTA when it was at its lowest point. Pressley is the exact same as Capuano, except on one issue, and has shown to be a poor speaker(I was originally supporting her and went to one of her rallies), and an opportunist, changing all of her positions before running(she was originally one of the most moderate in Boston, and now shes running as an unabashed liberal, a total Gillibrand).

And shes not even really campaigning. AOC took her race seriously, as did Newman. Pressley has been campaigning less than Capuano. Shes just not the right choice for the district. We shouldnt throw the baby out with the bath water, and getting rid of great congressmen and congresswoman just so we can get some "fresh blood" into the Dem caucus is a terrible idea.

You keep making vague claims about how Pressley isn’t campaigning when you have no evidence.

Afiak, Capuano is the person who lost to Martha Choakley, an infamously bad campaigner, by 20 points, so I don’t think calling him an excellent campaigner while trashing Pressley is exactly based on reality.

1. He lost to her in 2010, when Coakly was still a rising start in the Dem party and a popular AG. She lost her star power after the 2010 election. If he lost to her for the 2014 gubernatorial, I would understand, but this is a false equivalency.

2. I have been following this race for a while, and Pressley has not been campaigning. She has had 1 or 2 rallys in the month of July, while Capuano has had legions of GOTV people and has even had a rally. There is a clear difference in how the 2 are conducting their campaign, and so far, Capunao is putting more effort in.

[Brittain33]

You can’t look at the senate race... Capuano only represents 11% of the state. His parochialism is a double edged sword which helps for Congress even if it holds him back from statewide office. Think of an NYC politician running statewide.

Anecdotally, I voted for Coakley in the Senate primary and am voting for Capuano in September.

[Strudelcutie4427]

There is a debate (Capuano vs. Pressley) at 3pm today at UMass Boston. I would have gone if I didn’t have work but if anyone else lives close and isn’t busy you should check it out

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I could care less who wins the primary, they are like the same.

[Zaybay]

I could care less who wins the primary, they are like the same.

They are the same, but it will be interesting to watch. This is in my backyard! (Well, close to it, live in the next district over, but still)

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/AsteadWesley/status/1029784971144298496?

Yikes.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/AsteadWesley/status/1029784971144298496?

Yikes.

Not good.

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/AsteadWesley/status/1029784971144298496?

Yikes.

Not good.

Second quote is much worse than the Kaep critique

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/AsteadWesley/status/1029784971144298496?

Yikes.

Not good.

Second quote is much worse than the Kaep critique

It is terrible, but the question is if this will get to Democratic voters in the district.