NJ-11: Frelinghuysen retiring

[Brittain33]

I think a solid R Assemblyman has at least even odds to hold this seat unless the SALT cap becomes a major issue. There is not only a Republican base here, but a functioning R machine that endures when Frelinghuysen leaves. A lot of normally R voters will vote D this year but not sure enough to flip it. We'll see. This will be on the more interesting elections.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I think a solid R Assemblyman has at least even odds to hold this seat unless the SALT cap becomes a major issue. There is not only a Republican base here, but a functioning R machine that endures when Frelinghuysen leaves. A lot of normally R voters will vote D this year but not sure enough to flip it. We'll see. This will be on the more interesting elections.

This district dislikes trump health care gop culture wars and the tax bill

wtf is the republican going to campaign on if all 4 of these things are unpopular in the district?

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think a solid R Assemblyman has at least even odds to hold this seat unless the SALT cap becomes a major issue. There is not only a Republican base here, but a functioning R machine that endures when Frelinghuysen leaves. A lot of normally R voters will vote D this year but not sure enough to flip it. We'll see. This will be on the more interesting elections.

This district dislikes trump health care gop culture wars and the tax bill

wtf is the republican going to campaign on if all 4 of these things are unpopular in the district?

[KingSweden]

Frankly I'm hoping for a 10D-2R delegation through redistricting. NJ is prone for incumbent-protection plans, and it's safer long-term for Dems to have two Republican vote sinks (one in Ocean County/southern-inland Monmouth and another in northwest NJ) to avoid a dummymander.

My ideal scenario would be Dems gain NJ-2, 7 and 11 and hope Smith holds off retiring until redistricting (since he wouldn't live in the NW NJ district vote sink). Smith is also probably the best person Democrats can hope for out of that seat.

I think Democrats would have to be pretty satisfied with Jen Beck as well, who seems like the likely replacement if Smith retires any time soon. (There is no indication he will nor should he.)

It would not surprise me if Chris Smith is Dean of the House some day

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think a solid R Assemblyman has at least even odds to hold this seat unless the SALT cap becomes a major issue. There is not only a Republican base here, but a functioning R machine that endures when Frelinghuysen leaves. A lot of normally R voters will vote D this year but not sure enough to flip it. We'll see. This will be on the more interesting elections.

This district dislikes trump health care gop culture wars and the tax bill

wtf is the republican going to campaign on if all 4 of these things are unpopular in the district?

The same things he's campaigned on every two years since 2007 and/or the same things Karen Handel campaigned on in a similar district.

Trump got 52% in Webber's district. Webber got ~56% (as a percentage of ballots cast) in the worst year for NJ Republicans since 1989. He is a talented politician. This remains a toss-up, but will now be one of the premier matchups of 2018, with two very qualified and very likable candidates. I am confident that the district would be well-represented by either candidate.

Has Webber even said he’s running?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I think a solid R Assemblyman has at least even odds to hold this seat unless the SALT cap becomes a major issue. There is not only a Republican base here, but a functioning R machine that endures when Frelinghuysen leaves. A lot of normally R voters will vote D this year but not sure enough to flip it. We'll see. This will be on the more interesting elections.

This district dislikes trump health care gop culture wars and the tax bill

wtf is the republican going to campaign on if all 4 of these things are unpopular in the district?

The same things he's campaigned on every two years since 2007 and/or the same things Karen Handel campaigned on in a similar district.

Trump got 53% in Webber's district. Webber got ~56% (as a percentage of ballots cast) in the worst year for NJ Republicans since 1989. He is a talented politician. This remains a toss-up, but will now be one of the premier matchups of 2018, with two very qualified and very likable candidates. I am confident that the district would be well-represented by either candidate.

Frelinghuysen was able to win because there was no super unpopular tax bill that raised the taxes of people in New Jersey. I'm really surprised you aren't aware of how much of this tax bill is a sh**tstorm in NJ (all of my family - even republicans - from NJ are super pissed about it) considering you live there.

Also Frelinghuysen was the chair of the house of appropriations committee (the most powerful committee in washington) which meant he could redirect spending to the district. He was literally one of the top 10 most powerful people in Congress. He could just buy out people's votes if he wanted to, lol. There's a reason people who are in the house of appropriations committee rarely get defeated in reelection because you just redirect millions of dollars into your district. It's kind of a free ride to winning unless there's a really big wave.

Webber won't be able to give his district millions in government spending so he loses the whole point of voting Frelinghuysen in.

[Brittain33]

I don't think Appropriations is as salient here as it is in the Midwest or South. This is not a district where people really care about the federal government providing their livelihood.

(I have close family in affluent bits of NJ-7 who formerly lived in similar parts of NJ-11).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don't think Appropriations is as salient here as it is in the Midwest or South. This is not a district where people really care about the federal government providing their livelihood.

(I have close family in affluent bits of NJ-7 who formerly lived in similar parts of NJ-11).

I think it’ll be a pretty close race, but the national environment should be enough to make this seat flip despite Webber’s candidacy (although had we not lucked out with such a strong Democratic recruit, this would probably be a very near-miss along the lines of PA-6 in 2006).  However, if Webber wins, I can count on one hand the Democrats who could even have a chance of unseating him despite Trump being on the ballot (there are like three, if that).  This is an important race since Webber is the type who could get entrenched very quickly and we may well not get another shot here until he leaves office.  

Seats like this one, WA-8, Ed Royce’s open seat, Issa’s open seat, CO-6, PA-6, PA-7, MI-11, VA-10, MN-3, and TX-7 are gonna be crucial since (unlike somewhere like NC-9, Dave Brat’s seat, KS-2, and WI-6, all of which I think we’ll pick up btw) losses in such seats dramatically narrow the path to flipping the house by increasing the extent to which we have to rely on flips in less friendly territory and/or the sorts of freak upsets that inevitably occur during in the House during large wave years.

[Smash255]

I don't think Appropriations is as salient here as it is in the Midwest or South. This is not a district where people really care about the federal government providing their livelihood.

(I have close family in affluent bits of NJ-7 who formerly lived in similar parts of NJ-11).

I would agree that Appropriations isn't that big of a deal in the district, the tax bill on the other hand is.  The GOP does have a high floor in the district and it will be a close race, but there are enough of swing and typically Republican leaning (but not hyper GOP) middle to upper middle class voters in which the tax bill will have a big impact.

[Badger]

I think a solid R Assemblyman has at least even odds to hold this seat unless the SALT cap becomes a major issue. There is not only a Republican base here, but a functioning R machine that endures when Frelinghuysen leaves. A lot of normally R voters will vote D this year but not sure enough to flip it. We'll see. This will be on the more interesting elections.

This district dislikes trump health care gop culture wars and the tax bill

wtf is the republican going to campaign on if all 4 of these things are unpopular in the district?

I had to Google this to see if this was serious. My heart sinks to know that it is.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think a solid R Assemblyman has at least even odds to hold this seat unless the SALT cap becomes a major issue. There is not only a Republican base here, but a functioning R machine that endures when Frelinghuysen leaves. A lot of normally R voters will vote D this year but not sure enough to flip it. We'll see. This will be on the more interesting elections.

This district dislikes trump health care gop culture wars and the tax bill

wtf is the republican going to campaign on if all 4 of these things are unpopular in the district?

I had to Google this to see if this was serious. My heart sinks to know that it is.

Wow...

[King Lear]

I think a solid R Assemblyman has at least even odds to hold this seat unless the SALT cap becomes a major issue. There is not only a Republican base here, but a functioning R machine that endures when Frelinghuysen leaves. A lot of normally R voters will vote D this year but not sure enough to flip it. We'll see. This will be on the more interesting elections.

This district dislikes trump health care gop culture wars and the tax bill

wtf is the republican going to campaign on if all 4 of these things are unpopular in the district?

I had to Google this to see if this was serious. My heart sinks to know that it is.

Wow...

It looks like that after 50 years of getting White people scared of "The Blacks", and 25 years of getting them scared of "The Mexicans", and 15 years of getting them scared of "The Muslims", they are now desperate to get them scared of a new powerless group of people.

[smoltchanov]

^ When a group gradually loses it's majority status, it's almost invariably becomes afraid of somebody. Simply because of fear for the future. It's rather well-known psychological phenomenon.

[Hindsight was 2020]

He could win but this environment will probably be too tough for him

[LimoLiberal]

He could win but this environment will probably be too tough for him

I actually don't think it's that hard for a Republican to win in a NJ-11 type district with a D+5/6 generic ballot.

[LabourJersey]

He could win but this environment will probably be too tough for him

I actually don't think it's that hard for a Republican to win in a NJ-11 type district with a D+5/6 generic ballot.

This is definitely true for an average Democratic candidate, but Sherill is doing REALLY well with fundraising and grassroots. She's far and away the best candidate the Dems have produced her in a long time

[Virginiá]

He could win but this environment will probably be too tough for him

I actually don't think it's that hard for a Republican to win in a NJ-11 type district with a D+5/6 generic ballot.

I'm not too confident with these seats as well. NJ Republicans didn't get wiped out in 2008, and while there are some open seats this time, I don't think it's a given. What does make me feel better about it is that Democrats did pretty well in the popular vote for Assembly races last year - better than NJ US House Republicans did in 2008, so maybe there is some hope.

[LimoLiberal]

He could win but this environment will probably be too tough for him

I actually don't think it's that hard for a Republican to win in a NJ-11 type district with a D+5/6 generic ballot.

I'm not too confident with these seats as well. NJ Republicans didn't get wiped out in 2008, and while there are some open seats this time, I don't think it's a given. What does make me feel better about it is that Democrats did pretty well in the popular vote for Assembly races last year - better than NJ US House Republicans did in 2008, so maybe there is some hope.

The current positioning of the New Jersey Republican incumbents is okay, if precarious. The tax bill, although harmful to their districts, doesn't seem to be inspiring massive backlash or anger either way. And the New Jersey Republicans as a whole have been probably the most moderate republican delegation this congress. Of course, if the environment lurches left (say, D+10) you can say goodbye to NJ-11, Lance, and either MacArthur or Smith. NJ-2 is gone even if it was a republican-leaning year, lol.

[Suburbia]

Antony Ghee may be seen as a "Uncle Tom" for living in the "white suburbs" and being an investment banker by some far-left activists in urban Essex and other places when this news comes out.

He's not "down with the struggle".

But some of those activists don't live in NJ-11.

[Tintrlvr]

Antony Ghee may be seen as a "Uncle Tom" for living in the "white suburbs" and being an investment banker by some far-left activists in urban Essex and other places when this news comes out.

He's not "down with the struggle".

But some of those activists don't live in NJ-11.

Almost none of NJ-11 fits this profile.

It's almost all "white suburbs" (87.5% white, 2.8% black). Even the portion of Montclair in the district (Upper Montclair) is a progressive, extremely wealthy white suburb (84% white, 44.2% families with children, <8% single mothers). There is no urban component to the district at all, at least by NJ standards. If Ghee is attacked by urban Essex activists for playing white – and you may be right in guessing he will be – I think it will only help him play respectability politics in the district.

https://statisticalatlas.com/congressional-district/New-Jersey/District-11/Overview

As for the comment about Smith being vulnerable in a D+10 environment, fat chance. He got 66% in 2006 (D+8) and in 2008 (D+11). I grew up in his district and the man is an institution who has basically drawn his own map. I saw him at a half dozen events last summer in an off-year. MacArthur might be washed out, though.

Re: Smith, entrenched incumbents have a way of being safely entrenched through multiple waves right up until they aren't, and then they lose out of nowhere. Part of why Smith did so well in 2006 and 2008 was because the Democrats didn't run serious candidates, notwithstanding the favorable national environment. Not saying he will lose (I agree he's reasonably safe at this point), but it's definitely not the case that he can't lose.