NJ-11: Frelinghuysen retiring

[Suburbia]

Who should NJ GOP go with:

Assemblyman Tony Bucco, aligned himself with Jerome Corsi, a right-wing journalist and author who said that former President Barack Obama was not born in America, essentially a birther?

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/04/nj_assemblyman_says_jerome_cor.html

http://blog.nj.com/njv_editorial_page/2012/04/morris_county_republicans_birt.html

State Senator Joe Pennachio, who created a Nationalist agenda in the early 1990s after rampant disillusionment with Reagan-Bush?

https://web.archive.org/web/20080516221815/http://www.politickernj.com/files/2008-03-17_NationalistAgenda.pdf

If Bucco is the GOP nominee, Sherill could win with tying Bucco to Corsi!

It's still Lean R/Tossup. It's still Christie country.

Add to that list the strongest candidate (who I guess I'm stumping for now):

Assemblyman Jay Webber (Morris Plains):

Former chair of the NJGOP, graduate of Johns Hopkins and Harvard Law, elected to the Assembly in 2007 at age 35, a longtime darling of the state's suburban right wing and constantly mentioned as a statewide candidate.

Webber is probably the cleanest candidate with regard to Trump and Christie, who both remain inordinately popular with the North Jersey party. I think he has a much stronger chance than Bucco or Pennacchio (who has a ton of non-scandalous baggage).

Webber is the future of the NJ GOP post-Christie, along with Chris DiPiazza, Michael Whelan, etc.

Webber would be the safest choice to win NJ-11. He would be the Democrats' worst nightmare, because he is inoffensive, and is a typical American suburban conservative. 

[Oryxslayer]

For reference here is how New Jersey's districts voted for Murphy. Murphy, for reference, matched Clinton's margin in the state (56-42 Murphy to 55-41 Clinton) his colaition just was different.



Open seats this close to the median nearly always fall in midterms, it is why I am keeping track of it in my sig. To everyone throwing out good GOp recruits - why would they run? This year is going to be  democratic leaning at the minimum, and open seats like this are the first to go. Why would a strong GOP bencher throw away their carrier against a wave? WA-08 is a good parallel to this seat, and there the GOP is backing a candidate trying to extend their doomed carrier, rather than seeking a good new to throw theirs away.

[Nyvin]

The most annoying people on the internet are the moderate GOP #nevertrumpers who like electoral politics and try to spin every development into a "win" for the GOP. I saw at least three takes online saying Issa and Royce retiring was actually a boon for the GOP because they were disliked or something...

If an incumbent without a scandal is retiring, their district becomes more competitive. That's how it works.

Look up my scant post history. I think I have at least three comments suggesting that Frelinghuysen should retire to help the party. I have been saying so for months.

Obviously Royce's retirement is bad for the party — we now have no real shot in that district. Issa's is probably neutral just due to the advantages of incumbency, but Frelinghuysen was essentially toxic. I am glad he retired, even though I support him personally. He could not win against Sherrill.

Anyway, Frelinghuysen is not an incumbent without a scandal, so I'm not sure why you're bringing this rant here:

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/16/rodney-frelinghuysen-ethics-complaint-238452

I'm sure national Republican officials are just thrilled to hear of Frelinghuysen's retirement.

[kph14]

Precinct maps of NJ-11
https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/929781348910460929

[Brittain33]

Frelinghuysen retiring is good news for Dems, but this is far from a gimme. I don't think this district goes any further than toss-up unless it becomes a massive D wave. This is some seriously Republican territory, like GA-6. It may be anti-Trump but it has far to go before it votes Dem. Then again, I never would have expected Marge Roukema's district to elect a Democrat, and it did. 

[Angrie]

Anyone else notice how moderate congressmen are the most likely to be big cowards afraid of losing?

Yeah, moderates are disgusting in that way. They don't fight for what they believe in, because they don't believe in anything except themselves. Accordingly, when the going gets tough, they retire. Sad.

[Bidenworth2020]

You guys are forgetting that the Morris County GOP has a huge bench

Any Italian or Irish NJ Republican can win this seat by not nationalizing Trump

governor Gillespie will tell you how easy this is to do.

[Angrie]

God new Jersey is going to be a bloodbath for 2018 republicans isn't it? NJ-02 is on the fast track to being triaged with Van Drew, NJ-11 is now a tossup at worst, NJ-07 is moving towards tossup, NJ-03 is blessed with MacArthur and his Health Care fiasco, and NJ-04's Chris Smith is on the retirement watch-list due to his age and moderation. This congressional map was drawn to be a 6-6, and their is now an outside chance of it being 12-0 in 2019. A total dummymander.

If only Chris Christie had been the Republican nominee rather than Trump, or else maybe been Trump's VP pick. What a totally different world we would be living in!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You guys are forgetting that the Morris County GOP has a huge bench

Any Italian or Irish NJ Republican can win this seat by not nationalizing Trump

governor Gillespie will tell you how easy this is to do.

Did Morris County vote for Clinton?

[kph14]

The fact that Murphy with his left agenda won this district, shows how anti-Trump it is

[Devout Centrist]

RIP Frelinghuysen dynasty

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Precinct maps of NJ-11
https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/929781348910460929

That municipal map is actually the 2016 presidential map. The correct 2017-GOV map is here:

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/929793211412942849

As can be seen from the swing map, Murphy did worse than Hillary in the more upscale/white collar parts of the district (the Chathams, the Mendhams, Denville, Randolph, Mountain Lakes, etc) but better than her in the blue collar areas (the Rockaways, the Caldwells, Passaic County) and the uberwealthy white liberal areas (Livingston, Millburn, Montclair). Given that Phil goddamn Murphy won the district without moderating his platform at all after the primary tells me this is Lean D in this environment.

On a personal level, I live in this district (and have my entire life), and Rodney Frelinghuysen has been my representative literally since birth, so it'll be exciting to not only have a new congressman but to experience a truly competitive contest for the first time! I suspect this may end up being one of the most hard-fought and expensive contests in the country. I've already warned my parents to hunker down for a total political barrage the likes of which they've never seen before

[gerritcole]

Anyone else notice how moderate congressmen are the most likely to be big cowards afraid of losing?

it is not cowardice... it is incredibly draining to spend millions and spend thousands of hours on a campaign that you know you don't have a great shot at winning

[Vosem]

You guys are forgetting that the Morris County GOP has a huge bench

Any Italian or Irish NJ Republican can win this seat by not nationalizing Trump

governor Gillespie will tell you how easy this is to do.

Did Morris County vote for Clinton?

Morris County was Trump+4, Guadagno+8; the seat as a whole is Trump+1, Murphy+0. Morris County is a majority but not all of it, and the non-Morris County parts of this seat are pretty Democratic to begin with and zooming left.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You guys are forgetting that the Morris County GOP has a huge bench

Any Italian or Irish NJ Republican can win this seat by not nationalizing Trump

governor Gillespie will tell you how easy this is to do.

Did Morris County vote for Clinton?

Morris County was Trump+4, Guadagno+8; the seat as a whole is Trump+1, Murphy+0. Morris County is a majority but not all of it, and the non-Morris County parts of this seat are pretty Democratic to begin with and zooming left.

True. But Virginia comparisons are rather overused here, even if one accepts 2016 election results as gospel. This isn't Virginia, Virginia was D+5. The GOP definitely has a shot at holding it and it looks like a Tossup at this stage.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Likely R---> tossup. People were realy underestimating Frelinghuysen though before retirement announcing too though.

[MAINEiac4434]

''Democrats are favored to take back the House, so let's needlessly make their path to victory even easier!"' - Retiring Republican ''logic''

I think it has more to do with going out on their own terms instead of suffering an embarrassing loss.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

''Democrats are favored to take back the House, so let's needlessly make their path to victory even easier!"' - Retiring Republican ''logic''

I think it has more to do with going out on their own terms instead of suffering an embarrassing loss.

Yeah, this kind of pressure is definitely the kind that cracks collective thinking. Everyone retiring is just thinking of how terrible the next 10 months are going to be, and how much it's going to suck to lose after all of that fundraising and baby kissing.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Fantastic news! It's time to get an Italian back in Congress representing us!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I do think Frelinghuysen was the likely winner in this election before he retired, but that's only because he's the chair of the House Appropriations Committee (one of the strongest positions in Congress, and one that can immensely benefit a district). Without the ability to buy out the vote in his district with earmarks, the non incumbent Republican is dead on arrival.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Yeah, this is probably somewhere from a toss-up to Tilting Democrat. I could see this being a "OMG! Dems in suburbs in an anti-Trump district! Let's get way overconfident!" ala GA-06, though being a normal election should make it more... normal. Regardless, this will definitely help out Democrats to take the house back.

[smoltchanov]

Anyone else notice how moderate congressmen are the most likely to be big cowards afraid of losing?

Moderate congressmen usually sit in moderate districts, which are first to flip. There is no boldness in running for reelection in TX-13, which Republicans can't lose...

[Gustaf]

I would think that if Frelinghuysen didn't think he would win reelection the Republicans are probably losing the seat.

[Suburbia]

Kate Whitman, the daughter of former Gov. Christie Whitman is considering running for the NJ 11 seat.

https://www.insidernj.com/source-kate-whitman-mulling-cd11-run/

[Suburbia]

Assemblyman Jay Webber (R-Morris) is in. He is running for the GOP House nomination for NJ-11.

https://www.dailyrecord.com/story/news/2018/02/03/jay-webber-running-congress-replace-rodney-frelinghuysen/303588002/

http://jaywebber.org/