NJ-11: Frelinghuysen retiring

[Holmes]

Trump's gonna be on the mind of almost every voter this  November.

[Brittain33]

This is the congressional district of Trump International Golf Course in Bedminster.

[Nyvin]

You guys are forgetting that the Morris County GOP has a huge bench

Any Italian or Irish NJ Republican can win this seat by not nationalizing Trump

The Republican candidate does not decide whether or not Trump is nationalized.

[MT Treasurer]

D+1. This district is trending D in the long term, so not surprised that he is retiring. Republicans will have a hard time keeping the House if this trend continues.

[PragmaticPopulist]

He was old, had been in the house for a long time, and his district was trending Dem. Phil Murphy narrowly won it last year. Makes sense if you think about it.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

You guys are forgetting that the Morris County GOP has a huge bench

Any Italian or Irish NJ Republican can win this seat by not nationalizing Trump

Nothing about the gop is popular in Nj-11. They didnt like the AHCA, they obviously didn't like the tax reform, and they hate Trump. Any republican will lose in NJ now, likely by double digits. Their best hope was Rodney sending NJ-11 a bunch of earmarks to buy their votes.

[Brittain33]

I disagree that this district is trending D so much as revolted by Trump, but we'll see what the future holds. Either way 2018 is not a good year for an R here.

[Pericles]

I’m really perplexed why these Republicans are all retiring, considering that this is probably going to be a nuetral cycle.

It's not going to be a neutral cycle. They know a wave is happening.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I’m really perplexed why these Republicans are all retiring, considering that this is probably going to be a nuetral cycle.

It's not going to be a neutral cycle. They know a wave is happening.

Don't feed the troll, and please don't quote him.

[Gass3268]

Another committee chairman retiring.

[King Lear]

If Democrats are going to flip the House this year, then this is definitely a must-win district for them. The fact that Frelinghuysen is retiring, definitely makes this a much easier pickup for Democrats. However, the one big problem Democrats may face in some of these wealthy, White, Suburban, districts, is that with the big Tax cuts and the booming stock market it's going to be hard for Rich, bigoted, White people to vote for Democrats that will raise their taxes and give their money to the "others" (ie. Black people).

[PragmaticPopulist]

If Democrats are going to flip the House this year, then this is definitely a must-win district for them. The fact that Frekinghuysen is retiring, definitely makes this a much easier pickup for Democrats. However, the one big problem Democrats may face in some of these wealthy, White, Suburban, districts, is that with the big Tax cuts and the booming stock market, it’s going to be difficult to get these rich, bigoted, White people to vote for Democrats who will raise their taxes and give their money to the “others” (ie. Black people).

1) This is a SALT state, so the tax cut might've actually hurt them
2) What makes you think the residents of the district are mostly "bigoted"? That's the inverse of urbanites calling rural dwellers bigoted
3) Nice concern trolling post

[junior chįmp]

Another committee chairman retiring.

1/3rd of all GOP committeemen have quit

Blue tsunami imminent

[Nyvin]

Sabato moved it to tossup.

With this there are now 20 Republican held seats in either the tossup or lean Dem categories.  

That's either 3 or 4 (depending on PA-18) away from flipping the house without any Lean R seats (also assuming Dems hold MI-13 obviously)

[Suburbia]

[

It’ll be 10-2 at the very worst.

Oh yeah, I suspect 10-2 is probably the most likely end result. But 12-0 is within the bell curve of probability, albeit an outside chance and a slim probability right now.  

You guys are forgetting that the Morris County GOP has a huge bench

Any Italian or Irish NJ Republican can win this seat by not nationalizing Trump

Two things. 1 - Murphy won this seat by 1%, even though he barely won Suburban Somerset, and he ran against Christie rather then Trump. 2 - I think you should check your ratings scale since you rated a opem 75-25 Clinton senate seat in New York and Westchester as a Lean R.

1) Where is the 2017 NJ GOV Murphy vs. Guadagno results by congressional district? I would like to see it.
2) Morris County is a traditional Republican stronghold of affluent and educated suburbs. I say Lean R/Tossup, because a Bucco or Jay Webber could run.

[SNJ1985]

''Democrats are favored to take back the House, so let's needlessly make their path to victory even easier!"' - Retiring Republican ''logic''

[LabourJersey]

You guys are forgetting that the Morris County GOP has a huge bench

Any Italian or Irish NJ Republican can win this seat by not nationalizing Trump

99.9% of people in the 11th District do not care what ethnicity their damn congressional candidates are.

I do happen to agree the Morris GOP bench is good, but it's an open seat and Sherill has both a solid war chest and the national environment at her back. Probably a Toss-Up, but close to Lean D

[Suburbia]

It's Webber's or Becchi's to lose.

[LimoLiberal]

Hello Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ).

I think this hurts Sherrill's chances. She was a slam-dunk against Frelinghuysen, the definition of a weak incumbent. If someone like Jay Webber (i.e. a conventional, popular Republican) jumps in, she might have a bigger fight.

This is the congressional district of Trump International Golf Course in Bedminster.

That's Lance's district (the seventh).

The most annoying people on the internet are the moderate GOP #nevertrumpers who like electoral politics and try to spin every development into a "win" for the GOP. I saw at least three takes online saying Issa and Royce retiring was actually a boon for the GOP because they were disliked or something...

If an incumbent without a scandal is retiring, their district becomes more competitive. That's how it works.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

The most annoying people on the internet are the moderate GOP #nevertrumpers who like electoral politics and try to spin every development into a "win" for the GOP. I saw at least three takes online saying Issa and Royce retiring was actually a boon for the GOP because they were disliked or something...

If an incumbent without a scandal is retiring, their district becomes more competitive. That's how it works.

Look up my scant post history. I think I have at least three comments suggesting that Frelinghuysen should retire to help the party. I have been saying so for months.

Obviously Royce's retirement is bad for the party — we now have no real shot in that district. Issa's is probably neutral just due to the advantages of incumbency, but Frelinghuysen was essentially toxic. I am glad he retired, even though I support him personally. He could not win against Sherrill.

Anyway, Frelinghuysen is not an incumbent without a scandal, so I'm not sure why you're bringing this rant here:

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/16/rodney-frelinghuysen-ethics-complaint-238452

Agreed 100%. Frelinghuysen was essentially DOA to someone like Sherrill; his campaign machinery is rusty at best (think Mica) and he has not been positioning himself well at all (not holding town halls, etc). Him retiring could be a net positive if a strong candidate like Jay Webber jumps in but that's not a given at this point. I'm keeping this seat as a Tossup but Tilting D as I have for a while, it's just the retirement makes things a lot more volatile.

[Sestak]

And now Frelinghuysen!

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Lean D.

God new Jersey is going to be a bloodbath for 2018 republicans isn't it? NJ-02 is on the fast track to being triaged with Van Drew, NJ-11 is now a tossup at worst, NJ-07 is moving towards tossup, NJ-03 is blessed with MacArthur and his Health Care fiasco, and NJ-04's Chris Smith is on the retirement watch-list due to his age and moderation. This congressional map was drawn to be a 6-6, and their is now an outside chance of it being 12-0 in 2019. A total dummymander.

I'd say 11-1 is a serious possibility; I really doubt Dems pick up Smith's seat even if he retires.

I have always thought it was really weird that a solid D state like NJ has a 6-6 congressional delegation.

[Suburbia]

Who should NJ GOP go with:

Assemblyman Tony Bucco, aligned himself with Jerome Corsi, a right-wing journalist and author who said that former President Barack Obama was not born in America, essentially a birther?

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/04/nj_assemblyman_says_jerome_cor.html

http://blog.nj.com/njv_editorial_page/2012/04/morris_county_republicans_birt.html

State Senator Joe Pennachio, who created a Nationalist agenda in the early 1990s after rampant disillusionment with Reagan-Bush?

https://web.archive.org/web/20080516221815/http://www.politickernj.com/files/2008-03-17_NationalistAgenda.pdf

If Bucco is the GOP nominee, Sherill could win with tying Bucco to Corsi!

It's still Lean R/Tossup. It's still Christie country.

[Suburbia]

Lean D.

God new Jersey is going to be a bloodbath for 2018 republicans isn't it? NJ-02 is on the fast track to being triaged with Van Drew, NJ-11 is now a tossup at worst, NJ-07 is moving towards tossup, NJ-03 is blessed with MacArthur and his Health Care fiasco, and NJ-04's Chris Smith is on the retirement watch-list due to his age and moderation. This congressional map was drawn to be a 6-6, and their is now an outside chance of it being 12-0 in 2019. A total dummymander.

I'd say 11-1 is a serious possibility; I really doubt Dems pick up Smith's seat even if he retires.

I have always thought it was really weird that a solid D state like NJ has a 6-6 congressional delegation.

NJ elects Republicans under right circumstances, there are plenty of moderate Republicans in NJ....Christie Whitman, Tom Kean, Chris Christie.

[Suburbia]

What about Rosemary Becchi, a lawyer and lobbyist?

https://www.mcguirewoods.com/People/B/Rosemary-Becchi.aspx#overview

Becchi vs. Sherill would be a tossup.