If Canada were in the United States and had congressional districts...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

ON (19), QU (12), BC (, AB (7), MB (4), SA (3), NS (3), NB (includes PEI) (3), NF (3)

Here's a fun little project (electoral votes shown). Used a tool (https://apportionmentcalculator.com/) to estimate a 435-seat US appointment with Canada included. Average seat size swells to 846,720. Canada steal 44 seats from us, with losses coming across the board - larger states, particularly Texas and California, are hit the hardest, though smaller states like Kansas and Nebraska also take a hit.

Surprised at how high the quota is.
I got BC correct but overestimated most provinces still.
Thanks for running the numbers!

[OBD]

ON (19), QU (12), BC (, AB (7), MB (4), SA (3), NS (3), NB (includes PEI) (3), NF (3)

Here's a fun little project (electoral votes shown). Used a tool (https://apportionmentcalculator.com/) to estimate a 435-seat US appointment with Canada included. Average seat size swells to 846,720. Canada steal 44 seats from us, with losses coming across the board - larger states, particularly Texas and California, are hit the hardest, though smaller states like Kansas and Nebraska also take a hit.

Surprised at how high the quota is.
I got BC correct but overestimated most provinces still.
Thanks for running the numbers!

Thank you! I should note that I took some additional creative liberties - the territories are not granted statehood, Prince Edward is folded in with Newfoundland to avoid creating a 100,000 person state, and DC is granted statehood to get the number of states to a nice round 60. If DC is excluded from statehood, Louisiana gains back a congressional district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

5 seat Alberta would be interesting. A rurban seat is likely inevitable; not so easy to nest 2 in Edmonton and Calgary each anymore.
Decisions, decisions, decisions...

[Gass3268]

Relevant

https://twitter.com/canadianpolling/status/1503466010447339524?s=21

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Relevant

https://twitter.com/canadianpolling/status/1503466010447339524?s=21

Not relevant. Comparing elections across countries rarely works, and it especially doesn't work when in this particular instance, because the Canadian news media talks about Trump negatively without Canadians having party loyalty, knowledge of policy outcomes, or exposure to pro-Trump media.

[Hatman 🍁]

Let's imagine the district drawing is controlled by the provincial legislatures. Who would control the process?

In BC, it would be the Democrats. You'd probably see the Interior packed into one safe GOP seat. Maybe a second for the Fraser Valley.

In Alberta, it would be the GOP. You can definitely crack Edmonton in 3 or something so the Dems don't win any seats.

In SK, it would be the GOP, but just divided the province in 2 would be sufficient.

In MB, it would probably be the GOP, but the province would be too evenly divided to attempt a gerrymander. They would probably pack all the dems in one seat, so you'd have a bizarre North Winnipeg - Northern Manitoba seat.

In ON, despite us in reality of having a PC government, I think in a 2 party system, the last election would've gone Democratic - just barely. You might be able to pack most conservatives into 2 or 3 seats with some suburban-rural gerrymanders, but they would be vulnerable in waves.

In QC, are we assuming CAQ would align with the GOP? I wonder if you could pack 2 Dem seats in Montreal, and have the rest be GOP leaning. Of course, nothing would truly be safe with the way QC votes.

And how would VRA seats work? Obviously we don't have a large enough concentration of Blacks to be able to carve out seats. Might be able to do that with "Asians" though (using the US Census term, but in Canada, south Asians and Chinese are never grouped together).   

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Let's imagine the district drawing is controlled by the provincial legislatures. Who would control the process?

In BC, it would be the Democrats. You'd probably see the Interior packed into one safe GOP seat. Maybe a second for the Fraser Valley.

In Alberta, it would be the GOP. You can definitely crack Edmonton in 3 or something so the Dems don't win any seats.

In SK, it would be the GOP, but just divided the province in 2 would be sufficient.

In MB, it would probably be the GOP, but the province would be too evenly divided to attempt a gerrymander. They would probably pack all the dems in one seat, so you'd have a bizarre North Winnipeg - Northern Manitoba seat.

In ON, despite us in reality of having a PC government, I think in a 2 party system, the last election would've gone Democratic - just barely. You might be able to pack most conservatives into 2 or 3 seats with some suburban-rural gerrymanders, but they would be vulnerable in waves.

In QC, are we assuming CAQ would align with the GOP? I wonder if you could pack 2 Dem seats in Montreal, and have the rest be GOP leaning. Of course, nothing would truly be safe with the way QC votes.

And how would VRA seats work? Obviously we don't have a large enough concentration of Blacks to be able to carve out seats. Might be able to do that with "Asians" though (using the US Census term, but in Canada, south Asians and Chinese are never grouped together).   

I doubt a North Winnipeg to North Manitoba seat would be drawn. The North Manitoba natives aren't numerous enough for a gerrymander to need to draw them into the Winnipeg seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

Let's imagine the district drawing is controlled by the provincial legislatures. Who would control the process?

In BC, it would be the Democrats. You'd probably see the Interior packed into one safe GOP seat. Maybe a second for the Fraser Valley.

In Alberta, it would be the GOP. You can definitely crack Edmonton in 3 or something so the Dems don't win any seats.

In SK, it would be the GOP, but just divided the province in 2 would be sufficient.

In MB, it would probably be the GOP, but the province would be too evenly divided to attempt a gerrymander. They would probably pack all the dems in one seat, so you'd have a bizarre North Winnipeg - Northern Manitoba seat.

In ON, despite us in reality of having a PC government, I think in a 2 party system, the last election would've gone Democratic - just barely. You might be able to pack most conservatives into 2 or 3 seats with some suburban-rural gerrymanders, but they would be vulnerable in waves.

In QC, are we assuming CAQ would align with the GOP? I wonder if you could pack 2 Dem seats in Montreal, and have the rest be GOP leaning. Of course, nothing would truly be safe with the way QC votes.

And how would VRA seats work? Obviously we don't have a large enough concentration of Blacks to be able to carve out seats. Might be able to do that with "Asians" though (using the US Census term, but in Canada, south Asians and Chinese are never grouped together).   

I doubt a North Winnipeg to North Manitoba seat would be drawn. The North Manitoba natives aren't numerous enough for a gerrymander to need to draw them into the Winnipeg seat.

Taking a look at this in ridingbuilder, and if you put all of the Lib+NDP polls in Winnipeg in one district, it's not quite enough, but if you add in all of the FN communities in the north (plus mining towns like Thompson that usually vote NDP), you get just over half the population. It might not be necessary, though, as a more compact Winnipeg seat would be preferred.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What would an Asian influence district in Metro Toronto look like?
I guess it would be Scarborough+parts of Markham?
Looking at it, you don't need to draw an Asian influence seat anywhere, they just draw themselves. Scarborough+parts of East York is one Asian seat, Markham+Richmond Hill+at least parts of Vaughan is another.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A mock-up of what a 17 seat Ontario might entail in the GTA.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Let's imagine the district drawing is controlled by the provincial legislatures. Who would control the process?

In BC, it would be the Democrats. You'd probably see the Interior packed into one safe GOP seat. Maybe a second for the Fraser Valley.

In Alberta, it would be the GOP. You can definitely crack Edmonton in 3 or something so the Dems don't win any seats.

In SK, it would be the GOP, but just divided the province in 2 would be sufficient.

In MB, it would probably be the GOP, but the province would be too evenly divided to attempt a gerrymander. They would probably pack all the dems in one seat, so you'd have a bizarre North Winnipeg - Northern Manitoba seat.

In ON, despite us in reality of having a PC government, I think in a 2 party system, the last election would've gone Democratic - just barely. You might be able to pack most conservatives into 2 or 3 seats with some suburban-rural gerrymanders, but they would be vulnerable in waves.

In QC, are we assuming CAQ would align with the GOP? I wonder if you could pack 2 Dem seats in Montreal, and have the rest be GOP leaning. Of course, nothing would truly be safe with the way QC votes.

And how would VRA seats work? Obviously we don't have a large enough concentration of Blacks to be able to carve out seats. Might be able to do that with "Asians" though (using the US Census term, but in Canada, south Asians and Chinese are never grouped together).  

I read this comment and decided to work on what a GOPmander of Ontario might look like. PCs=GOP in the analogy, so I drew a Republican gerrymander.
Using my imagination a bit, I decided to liken the place to a mixture of Illinois and Michigan in terms of its overall political geography. Toronto itself is a Dem stronghold, while its suburbs and exurbs are likely Dem overall, but more R the farther you get from Toronto and the more WWC it is. There would be GOP-leaning parts of the Golden Horseshoe, and D-leaning parts.

Peel Region would be basically safe D, trending D. York Region would be varied, but be similar to Oakland or DuPage; safe D, trending D as well, but not as quickly. Durham would be like Macomb; swingy, but by now, leaning Republican, and trending R as well. Though Ds would win both Peel seats and the only all-York CD, they would likely lose the Durham CD.

Hamilton would be safely Dem-leaning, but its D margins would be weakening due to WWC trends since the early 2010s. In general, while Ontario would have a real and slightly growing Dem lean over time, Ds would be improving in and around the 905 and especially the 416, as well as Ottawa. Meanwhile, they'd do about equal in mini-metros elsewhere, and worse in rural Ontario. They'd be doing much worse in remote Ontario and areas like Essex - think the North (comparable to MN-08) and parts of Upstate NY where Trump did quite well.

The mini-metros are cracked to prevent any Dem wins, and Hamilton is cracked in 3. Rs doing competitively in Halton (with how exurban it is) should ensure that the seat taking in northern Hamilton city is generally R-leaning but not safe. Areas in western Ontario have been cracked to reduce the chances of a Dem victory. Renfrew County has been put in with Francophones just to be safe.

The tossup CD running from Scarborough to Oshawa would see both candidates woo the Asian vote.


This translates into 3 safe Dem seats in Toronto proper, 3 basically safe Dem seats around it, another safe seat in Ottawa, a tossup CD running from parts of Toronto, and a bunch of likely/safe R seats, with varying margins.

[Hatman 🍁]

What would an Asian influence district in Metro Toronto look like?
I guess it would be Scarborough+parts of Markham?
Looking at it, you don't need to draw an Asian influence seat anywhere, they just draw themselves. Scarborough+parts of East York is one Asian seat, Markham+Richmond Hill+at least parts of Vaughan is another.

Scarborough-Markham-Richmond Hill for East Asians
Brampton+Malton for South Asians

Let's imagine the district drawing is controlled by the provincial legislatures. Who would control the process?

In BC, it would be the Democrats. You'd probably see the Interior packed into one safe GOP seat. Maybe a second for the Fraser Valley.

In Alberta, it would be the GOP. You can definitely crack Edmonton in 3 or something so the Dems don't win any seats.

In SK, it would be the GOP, but just divided the province in 2 would be sufficient.

In MB, it would probably be the GOP, but the province would be too evenly divided to attempt a gerrymander. They would probably pack all the dems in one seat, so you'd have a bizarre North Winnipeg - Northern Manitoba seat.

In ON, despite us in reality of having a PC government, I think in a 2 party system, the last election would've gone Democratic - just barely. You might be able to pack most conservatives into 2 or 3 seats with some suburban-rural gerrymanders, but they would be vulnerable in waves.

In QC, are we assuming CAQ would align with the GOP? I wonder if you could pack 2 Dem seats in Montreal, and have the rest be GOP leaning. Of course, nothing would truly be safe with the way QC votes.

And how would VRA seats work? Obviously we don't have a large enough concentration of Blacks to be able to carve out seats. Might be able to do that with "Asians" though (using the US Census term, but in Canada, south Asians and Chinese are never grouped together).  

I read this comment and decided to work on what a GOPmander of Ontario might look like. PCs=GOP in the analogy, so I drew a Republican gerrymander.
Using my imagination a bit, I decided to liken the place to a mixture of Illinois and Michigan in terms of its overall political geography. Toronto itself is a Dem stronghold, while its suburbs and exurbs are likely Dem overall, but more R the farther you get from Toronto and the more WWC it is. There would be GOP-leaning parts of the Golden Horseshoe, and D-leaning parts.

Peel Region would be basically safe D, trending D. York Region would be varied, but be similar to Oakland or DuPage; safe D, trending D as well, but not as quickly. Durham would be like Macomb; swingy, but by now, leaning Republican, and trending R as well. Though Ds would win both Peel seats and the only all-York CD, they would likely lose the Durham CD.

Hamilton would be safely Dem-leaning, but its D margins would be weakening due to WWC trends since the early 2010s. In general, while Ontario would have a real and slightly growing Dem lean over time, Ds would be improving in and around the 905 and especially the 416, as well as Ottawa. Meanwhile, they'd do about equal in mini-metros elsewhere, and worse in rural Ontario. They'd be doing much worse in remote Ontario and areas like Essex - think the North (comparable to MN-08) and parts of Upstate NY where Trump did quite well.

The mini-metros are cracked to prevent any Dem wins, and Hamilton is cracked in 3. Rs doing competitively in Halton (with how exurban it is) should ensure that the seat taking in northern Hamilton city is generally R-leaning but not safe. Areas in western Ontario have been cracked to reduce the chances of a Dem victory. Renfrew County has been put in with Francophones just to be safe.

The tossup CD running from Scarborough to Oshawa would see both candidates woo the Asian vote.


This translates into 3 safe Dem seats in Toronto proper, 3 basically safe Dem seats around it, another safe seat in Ottawa, a tossup CD running from parts of Toronto, and a bunch of likely/safe R seats, with varying margins.

Here's how I would rate these districts

North - Likely D
Ottawa - Safe D
Lake Ontario/St. Lawrence - Likely R
Central/East - Safe R
Simcoe/Huron - Safe R
Sarnia to Kitchener - Lean R
SW - Likely R
Brantford/Tobacco Country - Safe R
Hamilton/Niagara - Toss up
Halton - Likely D
Brampton/Caledon/York N - Toss up
Mississauga/Brampton - Likely D
Etobicoke/North York W - Safe D
Toronto core - super safe D
Don Valley/Scarborough - Safe D
Scarborough-Durham - Likely D
York Region south - Likely D

Not a bad map for the GOP, but still wouldn't win a majority of seats.

[Sol]

IMO a northern Ontario seat would probably be likely R or something like that--similar places in the U.S. have pretty much all flipped (MN-08, MI-1).

[Hatman 🍁]

IMO a northern Ontario seat would probably be likely R or something like that--similar places in the U.S. have pretty much all flipped (MN-08, MI-1).

How many Francophones or Indigenous people are in those districts, though? Also, Northern Ontario is a lot more urban than it seems on a map. Well over half the population lives in one of the five big cities in the region, and all of those cities usually vote Liberal or NDP, and 4/5 could be described as "college towns" as well. Sure, the district would be trending GOP, but not necessarily there yet.

[Sol]

IMO a northern Ontario seat would probably be likely R or something like that--similar places in the U.S. have pretty much all flipped (MN-08, MI-1).

How many Francophones or Indigenous people are in those districts, though? Also, Northern Ontario is a lot more urban than it seems on a map. Well over half the population lives in one of the five big cities in the region, and all of those cities usually vote Liberal or NDP, and 4/5 could be described as "college towns" as well. Sure, the district would be trending GOP, but not necessarily there yet.

It also doesn't seem obvious to me that Francophones would vote Democratic, tbh. They don't in New England.

I don't know the granular nature of Ontario demographics, so this I'm sure is off in a lot of ways but Sudbury seems like the kind of place which would have been rock-solid Democratic until about a decade ago, but that almost certainly would no longer be the case, though the extent to which it would actually be Republican is a bit harder to assess. The most optimistic scenario is something like Butte, where the presence of massive environmental devastation (due to mining not related to energy production) plus a university keeps the area Dem. But even Butte has seen some erosion in its margins and most places like it, like the Iron Range proper, the Lead Belt, or the UP, have seen hearty Republican gains.

I don't know as much about the other areas of the district (I only know a bit about Sudbury because my post yesterday sent me on a rabbit hole of Wikipedia about this), but generally "lumber country and industrial ex-mining country plus small cities" applies to a lot of Republican-held seats in this country but the only match for a Democratic seat is ME-02. Meanwhile there's MN-08 (which seems like the best parallel), WI-07, MI-01, MT-01, etc.

It does seem like Northern Ontario is a good bit more indigenous than most other obvious equivalents, even in Minnesota, but native voters aren't always monolithic and the exact percentages will matter a lot (would love to see those if you have them!). AZ-01 has a Republican PVI despite probably being equivalently or even more indigenous than this district (plus having Latinos, who can stand in for the urban lefties in places like Thunder Bay or Sudbury)

Not saying that a Northern Ontario district would be super Republican or anything (all of those seat IMO are probably winnable in a good Dem year or with even a slight shift in coalitions), but basically Northern Ontario seems like a classic place where the left in Canada would overperform Democrats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's how I would rate these districts

North - Likely D
Ottawa - Safe D
Lake Ontario/St. Lawrence - Likely R
Central/East - Safe R
Simcoe/Huron - Safe R
Sarnia to Kitchener - Lean R
SW - Likely R
Brantford/Tobacco Country - Safe R
Hamilton/Niagara - Toss up
Halton - Likely D
Brampton/Caledon/York N - Toss up
Mississauga/Brampton - Likely D
Etobicoke/North York W - Safe D
Toronto core - super safe D
Don Valley/Scarborough - Safe D
Scarborough-Durham - Likely D
York Region south - Likely D

Not a bad map for the GOP, but still wouldn't win a majority of seats.

This is assuming political geography along the lines you have previously talked about, not the setup I specified, right? Because I'd be curious to see if you agree or disagree with the idea that if we take it for granted the idea of political geography as I outlined in the post, i.e. with those sorts of voting coalitions and all, the Ds would still have an easy path to a majority.
Also, interesting to see that you rated Brampton/Caledon/North York as a simple tossup. I figured the Ds would get monster margins out of Brampton that would put it out of reach for the Republicans.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Relevant

https://twitter.com/canadianpolling/status/1503466010447339524?s=21

Not relevant. Comparing elections across countries rarely works, and it especially doesn't work when in this particular instance, because the Canadian news media talks about Trump negatively without Canadians having party loyalty, knowledge of policy outcomes, or exposure to pro-Trump media.

Yeah, a Canadian equivalent to Trump wouldn't do too much worse than a general conservative candidate (although will probably do worse).

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's how I would rate these districts

North - Likely D
Ottawa - Safe D
Lake Ontario/St. Lawrence - Likely R
Central/East - Safe R
Simcoe/Huron - Safe R
Sarnia to Kitchener - Lean R
SW - Likely R
Brantford/Tobacco Country - Safe R
Hamilton/Niagara - Toss up
Halton - Likely D
Brampton/Caledon/York N - Toss up
Mississauga/Brampton - Likely D
Etobicoke/North York W - Safe D
Toronto core - super safe D
Don Valley/Scarborough - Safe D
Scarborough-Durham - Likely D
York Region south - Likely D

Not a bad map for the GOP, but still wouldn't win a majority of seats.

This is assuming political geography along the lines you have previously talked about, not the setup I specified, right? Because I'd be curious to see if you agree or disagree with the idea that if we take it for granted the idea of political geography as I outlined in the post, i.e. with those sorts of voting coalitions and all, the Ds would still have an easy path to a majority.
Also, interesting to see that you rated Brampton/Caledon/North York as a simple tossup. I figured the Ds would get monster margins out of Brampton that would put it out of reach for the Republicans.

Ah, you're right. That district contains more of Brampton than I originally thought.

[Death of a Salesman]

As a baseline, I'd guess that Trump would win most Tory, PP, and CAQ voters. Quebec nationalism would be very different in a country where the Quebecois are ~2% of the population instead of 25%, but looking at how well Trump did in French towns in the US an American Quebec would probably be relatively conservative. Trump would lose some of the Chinese voters that the Tories do so well with, but there are also a lot of WWC NDP voters who would break for Trump over Biden here.

[Sol]

Playing around with Canada with US districts. Ignorance is liable to appear, please correct:




NS-01 (red): Northern Nova Scotia, Cape Breton Island, and some areas around the State Highway 102 corridor and eastern Halifax. Probably used to be pretty Democratic; this whole region used to be quite coal heavy, with a few Francophones too. The political shifts of the past 20 years or so have probably cratered Democrats here; Trump probably won it by a similar margin to NY-21, with remaining Democratic strength persisting mainly in Sydney proper and on reservations.

NS-02 (blue): The Annapolis Valley, South Shore, Sackville. This seems less friendly for Democrats historically, despite Sackville. Has probably been Republican for a while and only getting more so.

NS-03 (green): Halifax. Safe D of course, and the base of the Democratic party in the state; Democrats have probably been gaining strength here too.

Overall probably a fairly robustly Democratic state historically, but the collapse of historic industry and economic stagnation have made it a Republican leaning swing state in the mold of North Carolina. Biden is probably holding up pretty well here though.

[kwabbit]

It'd be too boring otherwise, but wouldn't Nova Scotia only get 1 district?

By my estimation, if district size was kept similar to US House levels, ie. the US House expanded, the apportionment would be as follows:

Province	Seat #
Ontario	19
Quebec	11
British Columbia	7
Alberta	6
Manitoba	2
Saskatchewan	2
Nova Scotia & PEI	2
New Brunswick	1
Newfoundland and Labrador	1
PEI	0
NW Territories	0
Nunavut	0
Yukon	0
Total	51

The territories could go with Alaska perhaps, even lumped together they are way too small in population. 

[Open Source Intelligence]

Let's imagine the district drawing is controlled by the provincial legislatures. Who would control the process?

In BC, it would be the Democrats. You'd probably see the Interior packed into one safe GOP seat. Maybe a second for the Fraser Valley.

In Alberta, it would be the GOP. You can definitely crack Edmonton in 3 or something so the Dems don't win any seats.

In SK, it would be the GOP, but just divided the province in 2 would be sufficient.

In MB, it would probably be the GOP, but the province would be too evenly divided to attempt a gerrymander. They would probably pack all the dems in one seat, so you'd have a bizarre North Winnipeg - Northern Manitoba seat.

In ON, despite us in reality of having a PC government, I think in a 2 party system, the last election would've gone Democratic - just barely. You might be able to pack most conservatives into 2 or 3 seats with some suburban-rural gerrymanders, but they would be vulnerable in waves.

In QC, are we assuming CAQ would align with the GOP? I wonder if you could pack 2 Dem seats in Montreal, and have the rest be GOP leaning. Of course, nothing would truly be safe with the way QC votes.

And how would VRA seats work? Obviously we don't have a large enough concentration of Blacks to be able to carve out seats. Might be able to do that with "Asians" though (using the US Census term, but in Canada, south Asians and Chinese are never grouped together).   

I doubt a North Winnipeg to North Manitoba seat would be drawn. The North Manitoba natives aren't numerous enough for a gerrymander to need to draw them into the Winnipeg seat.

Taking a look at this in ridingbuilder, and if you put all of the Lib+NDP polls in Winnipeg in one district, it's not quite enough, but if you add in all of the FN communities in the north (plus mining towns like Thompson that usually vote NDP), you get just over half the population. It might not be necessary, though, as a more compact Winnipeg seat would be preferred.

For drawing U.S. congressional-style Canadian districts, I think Nevada is a good example. All the population is in one place with a couple far away locales that are significantly smaller in size and most of the rest of the place is unpopulated.

[Sol]

It'd be too boring otherwise, but wouldn't Nova Scotia only get 1 district?

By my estimation, if district size was kept similar to US House levels, ie. the US House expanded, the apportionment would be as follows:

Province	Seat #
Ontario	19
Quebec	11
British Columbia	7
Alberta	6
Manitoba	2
Saskatchewan	2
Nova Scotia & PEI	2
New Brunswick	1
Newfoundland and Labrador	1
PEI	0
NW Territories	0
Nunavut	0
Yukon	0
Total	51

The territories could go with Alaska perhaps, even lumped together they are way too small in population. 

How many total districts is that? I'd like to work off a similar estimate but would want to guarantee PEI a district per the constitution.

[Sol]

Also, I just realized that a plausible interpretation of the VRA might require Texas style fajitas into Montreal to unpack Francophone voters...

[kwabbit]

It'd be too boring otherwise, but wouldn't Nova Scotia only get 1 district?

By my estimation, if district size was kept similar to US House levels, ie. the US House expanded, the apportionment would be as follows:

Province	Seat #
Ontario	19
Quebec	11
British Columbia	7
Alberta	6
Manitoba	2
Saskatchewan	2
Nova Scotia & PEI	2
New Brunswick	1
Newfoundland and Labrador	1
PEI	0
NW Territories	0
Nunavut	0
Yukon	0
Total	51

The territories could go with Alaska perhaps, even lumped together they are way too small in population. 

How many total districts is that? I'd like to work off a similar estimate but would want to guarantee PEI a district per the constitution.

It's 51. I think by population the whole of Canada should have 50 or 49, but Canada has a lot of places that would have barely 2 with current US apportionment numbers.