Polish Politics and Elections

[Walmart_shopper]

In any case, the opposition almost seem to be doing everything to lose the election. Aside of every gaffe and misstep possible, they've given up on making any efforts aimed at the PiS' stronghold. Sure there's no chance they could win over rural/small town voters in general, but under the proportional system it's all about making a dent. In 2015 PiS made a dent in PO's "natural" base, in addition to maxing their base support. Sometimes they seem to be more worried about the possible left resurgence than PiS' landslide victory. Furthermore KO is taking their stronghold over "big cities" for granted, putting up the face of a party of prosperous and happy urbane middle class, which isn't that appealing to large segments of urban populations, struggling with various issues.

I've been spending a lot of time in the eastern Masovia recently, which is PiS' strongholds. KO and other opposition forces could've easily exploited the fact the situation in the rural areas didn't really improved since PiS came to power, just to gain some additional support, but they essentially conceded. And what's worse, they're proceeding with their "stupid rural people will vote PiS no matter what" narrative, which only mobilizes more support for PiS there.

PiS getting reelected with absolute majority is inevitable and the only issue is whether they can pull Orban and get a constitutional majority (something I can't entirely discount as implausible) or "just" regular majority.


Apologies for somewhat incoherent rant.

Well that's depressing, I think.

[Walmart_shopper]

In any case, the opposition almost seem to be doing everything to lose the election. Aside of every gaffe and misstep possible, they've given up on making any efforts aimed at the PiS' stronghold. Sure there's no chance they could win over rural/small town voters in general, but under the proportional system it's all about making a dent. In 2015 PiS made a dent in PO's "natural" base, in addition to maxing their base support. Sometimes they seem to be more worried about the possible left resurgence than PiS' landslide victory. Furthermore KO is taking their stronghold over "big cities" for granted, putting up the face of a party of prosperous and happy urbane middle class, which isn't that appealing to large segments of urban populations, struggling with various issues.

I've been spending a lot of time in the eastern Masovia recently, which is PiS' strongholds. KO and other opposition forces could've easily exploited the fact the situation in the rural areas didn't really improved since PiS came to power, just to gain some additional support, but they essentially conceded. And what's worse, they're proceeding with their "stupid rural people will vote PiS no matter what" narrative, which only mobilizes more support for PiS there.

PiS getting reelected with absolute majority is inevitable and the only issue is whether they can pull Orban and get a constitutional majority (something I can't entirely discount as implausible) or "just" regular majority.


Apologies for somewhat incoherent rant.

As great as this sounds one thing about this election which will be worse for me than 2015 is that it seems the Left will make it in this time versus 2015.    Hopefully the Confederation makes it in but that does not look like will be the case.  This does put a damper on things despite the clear United Right victory. 

I'm just curious why you like the PiS. They are probably the most unlibertarian people on earth, and economically quite collectivist.

[Walmart_shopper]

This is today. Will be very depressing

Yep. The only question is the size of PiS' majority.

Oh yes, there's also the question of both Left's performance and whether Korwin and Co. will cross the magic 5%, but the general outcome is not in question.

Would the PiS basically replicate Orbanism in Poland if they get a aupermajority? I think the assumption is that the PiS has done a decent job lurching to the right in a less scary and autocratic way than, say, Erdogen and Orban. Does a supermajority give them enough confidence to get scary?

[Walmart_shopper]

Speaking of turnout, I don't think we can read that much into it. Before 2015 it was widely expected that a high turnout will benefit PO, as PiS had more limited support, and thus faring well with low turnout (like in 2005). But that obviously changed.

To be fair, 50% is hardly stellar turnout. I wonder if it ends up closer to 60% whether the PiS majority could be in danger.

[Walmart_shopper]

I hate to read my own country's politics into Poland's, but after living in both I have to say that no country on earth reminds me politically of Israel as Poland. And this election really strikes me as a kind of twin to our own elections this year. Before the election Netanyahu wrapped up four contentious years marked by deepening divisions over religion and state with a strong right-religious alliance. The right wing teetered on the verge of a majority in polls, which cpupd cement framatic constitutional changes involving the nature of the courts and the political system, as well as key "wins" for the religious right on religious and educational policy. Poland seems to be positioned similarly today. As we know Israel chose w different path.

If Poland likewise chooses another way, it will probably be a loss for the PiS similar to the PO's 2010 disappointment. PiS may win, but only with no absolute majority and a their legislative ambitions dramatically curtailed.

Those are two very different paths. If I had to guess I'd say PiS will win a strong majority and the next few years will be see a dramatic consolidation of power on the right in various ways. But Polish elections always surprise me, so we'll see.

[Walmart_shopper]

If early turnout reports mean anything they're, uh, not good for the opposition parties.https://mobile.twitter.com/LLemaniak/status/1183347295439466496

Turnout is quite high in PiS strongholds (although I suspect this is often the case).

[Walmart_shopper]

Speaking of turnout, I don't think we can read that much into it. Before 2015 it was widely expected that a high turnout will benefit PO, as PiS had more limited support, and thus faring well with low turnout (like in 2005). But that obviously changed.

To be fair, 50% is hardly stellar turnout. I wonder if it ends up closer to 60% whether the PiS majority could be in danger.

Marcin Palade (who knows his sh**t) is projecting 56-57% turnout based on this, but the increase so far seems to be highest in smaller towns and rural areas in the west, which are increasingly PiS-leaning.

Yeah, here is his map of turnout increases, which frankly looks A LOT more hopeful to KO.

https://twitter.com/MarcinPalade/status/1183355792822587392?s=20

[Walmart_shopper]

Any news?

Official turnout update in 30 minutes and the first wave of exits could be leaked at any moment.

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout at 17:00 was 46%, a whopping 7-point bump from 2015. Final turnout could even top 60%. Apparently among the highest turnouts are in very liberal Warsaw (55%) and Poznan. It's certainly perilous to get too worked up about turnout reports, all things considered, but I have to believe that PiS headquarters are not really thrilled right now.

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout at 17:00 was 46%, a whopping 7-point bump from 2015. Final turnout could even top 60%. Apparently among the highest turnouts are in very liberal Warsaw (55%) and Poznan. It's certainly perilous to get too worked up about turnout reports, all things considered, but I have to believe that PiS headquarters are not really thrilled right now.

For what it's worth, Warsaw was at 51% at 17:00 four years ago, so the rest of Poland has seen an even bigger bump than Warsaw.

[Walmart_shopper]

Take it for what it's worth, but one leaked exit poll has PiS with 48 (!!!) percent of the vote. So, wow.

[Walmart_shopper]

Another leak from Palade:

PiS 45.7
PO 27.3
SLD 12.1
PSL 8.1
Confederation 6.0

That would be around 240 seats for PiS, and a solid majority. But I think the late numbers are quite a lot worse than the early ones.

[Walmart_shopper]

How quickly do results come in?

[Walmart_shopper]

Do you think after release of 71,89 % of locals that PiS will retain the majority?

They're at almost 46 percent right now, which should be more than enough for a parliamentary majority. But counting isn't done yet, so who knows. I suspect they'll be fine.

[Walmart_shopper]

Looks up in the air to me. PiS has declined quite a bit as counting has continued, if the last 28% is particularly bad for them the majority may be out of reach. Also, the outcome in the Senate is still in doubt.

Do we know where the votes are still left to be counted?

[Walmart_shopper]

I saw that university students dosproportionately voted for the left and, alas, the far right. Does anyone have data on how all young people and not just university students voted?

[Walmart_shopper]

I saw that university students dosproportionately voted for the left and, alas, the far right. Does anyone have data on how all young people and not just university students voted?

All exit poll datas:
https://www.tvn24.pl/wybory-parlamentarne-2019/sondaz,475

You have to scroll down to "DEMOGRAFIA" click on "ZMIEN" and "WIEK
18 - 29 lat"

Thanks. It would appear that the narrative of younger Poles lurching right is really overdone (as such narratives usually are). The only thing that stands out is that PiS loses a lot of support to the far right in that demographic. But given the number of economically (and maybe emotionally) depressed young dudes with shaved heads taking part in white nationalist marches, this is perhaps to be expected. We know young Poles are much less religious. It seems they are even a little more liberal, too.

[Walmart_shopper]

Pretty shocking that 30-40% of young people are voting for the Neo-Nazis.

Pretty shocking that 20-30% of young Austrians are voting for the Neo-Nazis

12% of young women and 23% of young men voted FPÖ two weeks ago.

In Vorarlberg yesterday, it was 8% of young women voting FPÖ and 27% of young men.

I would say that's a difference compared to Poland, considering we have taken in 150.000 asylum seekers the last few years ... and Poland almost none.

The PiS is not a secular white nationalist party oriented around immigration policy. It is a social-minded Catholic revanchist party that has only begun recently to grow xenophobic and authoritarian. Konfedracja is closer to FPO than PiS amd they got 19 percent among young voters.

But the truth is both countries have a problem with right wing extremism. The difference is that Austrian youth are secular, multicultural, progressive, and economically prosperous. The Polish youth who are like that are in Berlin, Vienna, London, Dublin, Stockholm, etc. So the Polish youth in Poland are split between religiously devout Catholics, typical European leftists, and a huge group of often the stereotypical "economically distressed" sort who never managed to leave the country and want to blame Jews and mythical Islamic hoards for that sad fact. It is that last group who you see supporting neo nazis and parading in nationalist marches.

[Walmart_shopper]

Polls released after the first round result are evenly split. About half show Duda winning narrowly and have show Trzcsfdsvwhatever winning narrowly. I actually think Duda may lose.

[Walmart_shopper]

The polls today look good for Trzaskowski, but his lead is still only about 2%, so it goes without saying that the race is basically on the edge right now. Nevertheless even a very subtle shift like this away from Duda can point towards something more meaningful going on in the electorate. We'll see what polling shows over the next couple of days.

[Walmart_shopper]

How likely is it that Trzaskowski can pull off a win?

If polls are to be believed it is 50/50. Because Duda overperformed his polling in round one he may have a slight advantage, but in all honesty it is basically a coinflip.

[Walmart_shopper]

Rafał 50.7
Duda 49.3

Turnout: an incredible 70%, high in the PiS heartlands in the southeast and in key liberal vote hives like Warsaw, Gdansk, etc.. Rural voters in the west break towards Rafał for the win.

[Walmart_shopper]

We will get official turnout reports throughout the day, but it sounds like turnout is down quite a bit from round one. I would assume that, if it holds, it would be at least marginally good news for Duda. Although I'm not sure even that much is clear.

[Walmart_shopper]

We will get official turnout reports throughout the day, but it sounds like turnout is down quite a bit from round one. I would assume that, if it holds, it would be at least marginally good news for Duda. Although I'm not sure even that much is clear.

Anecdotal reports have turnout down, but early taste tests show that the pastries are extra full of jam. So we'll see how this goes.

[Walmart_shopper]

Rule of thumb, people: anything 'leaked' before 4/5pm in Poland is either nonsense or just not useful.

We will get official turnout reports throughout the day, but it sounds like turnout is down quite a bit from round one. I would assume that, if it holds, it would be at least marginally good news for Duda. Although I'm not sure even that much is clear.

Bear in mind that an unusually high number of people seem to have voted in the morning last time. The 'typical' pattern is that morning turnout is tilted towards conservatives and is balanced out by an evening rush of liberals. We don't know if that pattern has genuinely changed or if people were just afraid of long queues that ultimately didn't materialise.

It would be very unusual for turnout to fall in the second round, the only time that happened was in 1990 under extremely particular circumstances.

Yes, of course. But what would an election Sunday be without a little bazarek?

In any case, actual, official turnout reports are now leaking out and they are almost all unmistakably good for Rafał. Turnout in the eastern part of the country is down from Round 1, while turnout in key liberal areas seems to be up. No official report on overall turnout for another 30 minutes or so but it seems that overall turnout will actually he up from Round 1 at 1300.