Polish Politics and Elections

[Tender Branson]

This is today. Will be very depressing, but still ...

Results page:

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2019/en

[Tender Branson]

Turnout at 17:00 was 46%, a whopping 7-point bump from 2015. Final turnout could even top 60%. Apparently among the highest turnouts are in very liberal Warsaw (55%) and Poznan. It's certainly perilous to get too worked up about turnout reports, all things considered, but I have to believe that PiS headquarters are not really thrilled right now.

It could also mean that PiS is turning out voters in the West that previously didn’t vote for them. Or not at all.

This would then be a double shocker for the opposition, because PiS would hold their good results in the East and improve significantly in the West ...

[Tender Branson]

Pretty shocking that 30-40% of young people are voting for the Neo-Nazis.

[Tender Branson]

Pretty shocking that 30-40% of young people are voting for the Neo-Nazis.

For who? Where?

I think I read somewhere that this was the case for the Confederacy. Wrong ?

[Tender Branson]

Pretty shocking that 30-40% of young people are voting for the Neo-Nazis.

Pretty shocking that 20-30% of young Austrians are voting for the Neo-Nazis

12% of young women and 23% of young men voted FPÖ two weeks ago.

In Vorarlberg yesterday, it was 8% of young women voting FPÖ and 27% of young men.

I would say that's a difference compared to Poland, considering we have taken in 150.000 asylum seekers the last few years ... and Poland almost none.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is on track for 61-63%, which would be similar to the parliamentary election last year.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

51.4% DUDA (incumbent)
48.6% Transkinkcswsky (or whatever his name is)

[Tender Branson]

Rafał 50.7
Duda 49.3

Turnout: an incredible 70%, high in the PiS heartlands in the southeast and in key liberal vote hives like Warsaw, Gdansk, etc.. Rural voters in the west break towards Rafał for the win.

Turnout should indeed be good because of the close race.

70% is not unrealistic ...

I still expect Duda to win, because he seems to have a broader base and rural voters probably back him because of the PiS cash infusions they got over the past years and want the other guy to remain Warsaw mayor.

On the other hand, I know not much about Polish politics.

[Tender Branson]

We will get official turnout reports throughout the day, but it sounds like turnout is down quite a bit from round one. I would assume that, if it holds, it would be at least marginally good news for Duda. Although I'm not sure even that much is clear.

Where did you read that ?

There are no official numbers until 12:00 (noon).

[Tender Branson]

I’m updating my prediction to a 52.9% Duda win.

[Tender Branson]

Walmart shopper, make sure you're not getting your info from the Kondominium Twitter account. That guy is infamous for s--tting up Polish Twitter with misinformation.

Haha okay. Yeah, he seems much more optimistic right now (he is anti-Duda) than others on Twitter. I take his word for it that trendlines are good for Rafał but the PiS people seem fairly confident, too. In any case it is clear that the cities picked up a lot after noon. A key PO bastion, Szczecin, is also up over 3% officially from Round 1.

I just think it will he very tight and anyone who feels confident one way or another is probably just wishcasting.

I do not want Duda to win re-election, I just think he will.

And probably not by a small margin.

He has a good base from round 1 and the 4th placed guy is a right-winger too and combined, these 2 already got 50%+ in round 1 ...

[Tender Branson]

Higher than normal turnout almost definitely benefits PiS and not PO.

Turnout increased by more than 10% in the parliamentary elections in 2019 and PiS gained 7%.

[Tender Branson]

Question:

If tourists vote elsewhere (coast, woods where they go hiking), is their vote counted where they vote ? Or where they usually live ?

In Austria, if people vote in precincts other than their own, the vote counts in the town they are living ... (that is only the case for our parliamentary elections though, to determine the number of seats in each electoral district - not in presidential elections, where there are no seats to be determined by district).

Tourists voting elsewhere also complicate comparisons of turnout between the regions and between each round of voting ...

[Tender Branson]

I’m calling it:

52.1% DUDE
47.9% other guy

Which would be the middle of my two predictions I made earlier today.

[Tender Branson]

I’m calling it:

52.1% DUDE
47.9% other guy

Which would be the middle of my two predictions I made earlier today.

The case for a result like this would be the fact that exit polls Duda winning  Bosak voters 52-48.  I find this hard to believe and most likely the result of the small sample size.  But if exit polls has Duda winning 50.4-49.6 with Duda winning  Bosak voters 52-48 then in reality Duda will most likely win by significant margin, something like 52-48 or even greater.

Exit polls are exit polls, we need to see the real results.

Anyway, Warsaw Mayor Rafael reminds me of John Kerry 2004.

Duda = Bush.

[Tender Branson]

Duda ahead in the crucial swing state Ohio Mazowieckie:

https://tvn24.pl/wybory-prezydenckie-2020

Turnout was ca. 69% Poland-wide.

[Tender Branson]

Late Late projection for the polish vote is now 51-49 Duda. No diaspora votes included. If Duda loses it will be because of the votes from abroad.

Well, votes are now being counted on the official site.

Can you post the link.  I do not see anything

It's horribly designed, probably purposefully. If you click on a locality all the way down to the precint/poll level, you can see the results for said precinct/poll. Any higher and it's only the counted votes displayed. Someone has to run a scrape program to collect it all, and I'm not sure if there is an relatively fair media station out there who has run such a scrape.

https://wybory.gov.pl/prezydent20200628/pl/frekwencja/2/Koniec/pl

That is only the turnout page, not actual results ...

[Tender Branson]

Late Late projection for the polish vote is now 51-49 Duda. No diaspora votes included. If Duda loses it will be because of the votes from abroad.

Well, votes are now being counted on the official site.

Can you post the link.  I do not see anything

It's horribly designed, probably purposefully. If you click on a locality all the way down to the precint/poll level, you can see the results for said precinct/poll. Any higher and it's only the counted votes displayed. Someone has to run a scrape program to collect it all, and I'm not sure if there is an relatively fair media station out there who has run such a scrape.

https://wybory.gov.pl/prezydent20200628/pl/frekwencja/2/Koniec/pl

That is only the turnout page, not actual results ...

They actually have results published by each individual polling place as he said, this website appears to be tallying them up. In terms of outstanding vote there is around 14k in Warsaw, 27k in Kolobrzeg (43-32 Trzaskowski in R1), 22k in and around Zakopane (48-28 Duda R1), and 160k from Poles living in UK/Ireland/Belgium (mostly from UK, three UK polling places have reported and given around a 77-23 margin for Trzaskowski). Probably a few thousand other votes laying around that I don't feel like looking for. Final exit poll margin should be pretty accurate, with Duda winning by around 2.1% or so

Interesting ...

According to this page, the DUDE leads by over 500.000 votes with 99.5% of precincts in.

This is over.

[Tender Branson]

Duda will likely receive 10.5 million votes.

That’s the 2nd highest amount after the 10.7 million for Lech Wałęsa in 1990, who received it with over 70% of the vote, not 51%.

[Tender Branson]

From a quick look at the results at county level, it seems that Poland's political divide is shifting from East-West to Rural-Urban. Duda is performing far better in the villages in the west even winning a few he did not in 2015 while performing worse in the medium to larger cities, narrowly losing Lublin where he won in 2015.

Rather fascinating that Duda has only won with six provinces (and hardly the most populous ones at that) and without winning any of the major cities.

Don’t tell Trump that ...

[Tender Branson]

100% of the vote is here according to reports.

51.03 Duda
48.97 Trzaskowski

High turnout and population growth means that this is the most votes any PiS candidate and non-PiS candidate have ever received for president since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Poland has no population growth ...