Polish Politics and Elections

[brucejoel99]

Looks good for Trzaskowski. He'll probably gather an overwhelming majority of Hołownia, Biedroń, & Kosiniak voters, which would put him on at least 48%. At the same time, Duda can only count on no more than half of Bosak voters (not much more than Trzaskowski will gather, & maybe even less), & maybe a few Kosiniak voters. This would put him on ~45%.

It seems that late voters (not included in the exit poll) were mostly urban ones, so they helped Duda the least. Duda is also expected to fare below-average in abroad votes, so the difference might end up being smaller in the final official results, but not rather significantly.

Of course, those voters who abstained today but will vote in 2 weeks are a complete mystery. Plus, a lot can happen in these 2 weeks.