Polish Politics and Elections (user search)
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Author Topic: Polish Politics and Elections  (Read 108771 times)
Lord Halifax
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Posts: 2,312
Papua New Guinea


« on: July 09, 2020, 01:12:48 PM »
How likely is it that Trzaskowski can pull off a win?
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Lord Halifax
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,312
Papua New Guinea


« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2020, 04:54:02 AM »
« Edited: July 10, 2020, 05:33:09 AM by Lord Halifax »
Quote from: Heat on July 10, 2020, 04:28:03 AM
Very high probability of the margin being so close that the Supreme Court gets involved and we get some Bush v. Gore-tier clusterf---.

Okay, is the Supreme Court PiS friendly?

Since you think it's going to be a toss-up: Do you disagree with Kataak's description of Duda's turnout advantage?
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Lord Halifax
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,312
Papua New Guinea


« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2020, 07:09:46 AM »
Quote from: Walmart_shopper on July 12, 2020, 07:02:37 AM


So that is probably somewhat good news for Rafał. But it isn't clear which demographics exactly are turning out, so who knows.

If Conservatives usually vote early and Liberals late increased early turnout should be good for Duda.
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Lord Halifax
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,312
Papua New Guinea


« Reply #3 on: July 12, 2020, 09:20:29 AM »
Betfair now has Duda at 1.1 and Rafal Trzaskowski at 3.0, so if you believe Trzaskowski will win there is some easy money to be made.
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Lord Halifax
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,312
Papua New Guinea


« Reply #4 on: July 12, 2020, 11:42:34 AM »
Quote from: Epaminondas on July 12, 2020, 11:37:35 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on July 12, 2020, 11:14:20 AM
Higher than normal turnout almost definitely benefits PiS and not PO.

Why is this?
Are Polish youth reliable voters, and the elderly fickle?

PiS have more low educated and poor voters, PO is the urban middle class party.
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