Polish Politics and Elections

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

A fair bit of Trzaskowski ramping on Twitter now. Wouldn't normally put much stock in it, but considering there are also reports of record turnout in Warsaw...

Turnout in Warsaw was 47% at 5pm, whereas in 2014 by the time the polls closed it was 47.3%. No way of knowing who this is benefiting but it's not impossible that PO+.N could win easily there while still doing badly across the country.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Pollster Marcin Palade (who seemed to have accurate leaks in 2015) just tweeted PiS 35 PO+.N 23 PSL 16 Independent Self-government lists 7, Kukiz 6, SLD 5.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Independent Self-government lists 7

I should probably explain this btw - these are basically a load of vaguely centre-right local notables from across the country (mainly from Lower Silesia, but no longer limited to that region) who are trying to insert themselves into governing coalitions and therefore extract more money from the government by claiming to be 'non-partisan' and therefore Better Than You in order to fool low-information voters.

In case it's not obvious yet, I hate them with a passion.

[DavidB.]

Pollster Marcin Palade (who seemed to have accurate leaks in 2015) just tweeted PiS 35 PO+.N 23 PSL 16 Independent Self-government lists 7, Kukiz 6, SLD 5.

I assume this would be a very good result for PiS? What caused them to win by so much in 2015, and how have they managed to remain relatively popular ever since? To me as an outsider it's almost as if Poland has turned into another country compared to the times of PO rule, but I'm obviously aware that the information I receive is biased and limited.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Pollster Marcin Palade (who seemed to have accurate leaks in 2015) just tweeted PiS 35 PO+.N 23 PSL 16 Independent Self-government lists 7, Kukiz 6, SLD 5.

I assume this would be a very good result for PiS? What caused them to win by so much in 2015, and how have they managed to remain relatively popular ever since? To me as an outsider it's almost as if Poland has turned into another country compared to the times of PO rule, but I'm obviously aware that the information I receive is biased and limited.

With such result I guess they might have majority in 5-6 voivodships so this is progress compared to 2014. So good result, but this is not slamming victory. Poor result for SLD, even worse than in 2014. So they might get no sejmik members at all. Same with Kukiz which was usually considered as coalition candidate for PiS in many voivodships. Everything depends on how votes on POPSL and PiS will be distributed among the particular electoral districts in particular voivodships.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Pollster Marcin Palade (who seemed to have accurate leaks in 2015) just tweeted PiS 35 PO+.N 23 PSL 16 Independent Self-government lists 7, Kukiz 6, SLD 5.

I assume this would be a very good result for PiS? What caused them to win by so much in 2015, and how have they managed to remain relatively popular ever since? To me as an outsider it's almost as if Poland has turned into another country compared to the times of PO rule, but I'm obviously aware that the information I receive is biased and limited.

35% would be the highest share ever won by a Polish party in a local election, so it would be an objectively great result. The previous record was 33% by AWS in 1998 and that was an altogether different time where the voting public was relatively polarised between AWS and SLD and the various local machines who now make up the 'non-partisan' 'local' lists that pop up every so often were still often just local branches of AWS. The question is how that 35% is distributed. PiS needed to win majorities in as many voivodeships as possible to avoid being locked out for lack of coalition partners - Kukiz is their natural ally but if he's at 6% nationwide then there are probably many places where he has failed to win enough seats to be of any use, while coalitions with the Independent Self-government lists are possible but cannot be taken for granted. PSL is probably no longer an option for them because PiS ran very hard against them in this election in order to build on their near-destruction in 2015, and SLD isn't going to happen despite Kaczynski's last-minute offer.

Your second question requires a longer answer than I'm able to give at the moment.

[DavidB.]

Thanks, very interesting!

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Turnout at 17, locally distributed

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Exit poll for sejmiks:

PiS: 32,3%
KO: 24,7%
PSL: 16,6%
BS: 6,3%
Kukiz’15: 6,3%
SLD: 5,7%

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Turnout 51.3

PiS 32.3
PO+.N 24.7
PSL 16.6
Independent Self-government: 6.3
Kukiz 6.3
SLD 5.7
Korwin 1.5
Razem 1.4
National Movement 1.2
Greens 1.0

Cities:
Warsaw: Rafał Trzaskowski – 54,1%, Patryk Jaki – 30,9%
Gdańsk: Paweł Adamowicz (PO genepool indo) – 36,7%, Kacper Płażyński (PiS) – 32,3%, Jarosław Wałęsa (PO+.N) – 25,3%
Kraków: Jacek Majchrowski – 43,7%, Małgorzata Wassermann – 33,6%
Łódź: Hanna Zdanowska (PO+.N+SLD) – 70,1%, Waldemar Buda (PiS) – 24,2%
Wrocław: Jacek Sutryk (PO+.N+SLD) – 50,1%, Mirosława Stachowiak-Różecka (PiS) – 27,8%
Poznań: Jacek Jaśkowiak (PO+.N) – 56,2%, Tadeusz Zysk (PiS)– 22,2%

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Pollster Marcin Palade (who seemed to have accurate leaks in 2015) just tweeted PiS 35 PO+.N 23 PSL 16 Independent Self-government lists 7, Kukiz 6, SLD 5.

I assume this would be a very good result for PiS? What caused them to win by so much in 2015, and how have they managed to remain relatively popular ever since? To me as an outsider it's almost as if Poland has turned into another country compared to the times of PO rule, but I'm obviously aware that the information I receive is biased and limited.

PiS hugely benefits from PO's inability to learn from 2015, especially the need to reach out to the voters from outside their base, to display minimal understanding. And the PiS-PO dichotomy suck the oxygen out for any strong third option to emerge. Due to this PO seems to be more interested in preventing any force to emerge on the left (there was a point PO and liberal media were more focused on stopping Śpiewak in Warsaw, rather than fight off Jaki). They need to retain their status as "less terrible" to non-PiS voters to remain afloat.

However, I'm not sure these results can be (as far as we know at this hour) considered a resounding victory. After all, this is not about electing the parliament. We're talking about individual results in each voivodeship. We must wait and see.

Jaki's defeat in Warsaw will surely make PiS feel bitter and disappointed, as they invested heavily in taking the capital, and it seemed as they might get it, due to Gronkiewicz-Waltz's f**ups and scandals during her administration and Trzaskowski being a moron. Looks like Jaki's camp suggesting that if PiS loses the mayoral election, Warsaw won't be getting government funds, really backfired (It's not Singapore).

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Exit poll says PiS takes 10 out of 16 voivodeship Sejmiks. PO/N takes the rest.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Warsaw exit poll:

Trzaskowski (KO): 54,1%
Jaki (PiS): 30.9%
Śpiewak (WW): 3.0%
Glusman (RM): 2.6%
Jakubiak (Kukiz): 2,6%
Rozenek (SLD): 1.5%
Korwin (Wolność): 1.0%
Wojciechowicz (I): 1.0%

Ikonowicz: 0.8%
Stefaniak (PSL): 0.8%
Tanajno (Idiot): 0.6%
Antonik (I): 0.4%
"Count" Potocki: 0.4%
Krzekotowska: 0.3%


http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,24066952,wybory-samorzadowe-2018-kto-wygral-w-warszawie-znamy-najnowsze.html#s=BoxMMtCzol3

[bigic]

Exit poll says PiS takes 10 out of 16 voivodeship Sejmiks. PO/N takes the rest.

Although it surely won't be in government in all 10 of them because of lack of coalition partners. A better question is - in which voivodeships PO+N+PSL+SLD don't have a majority?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Exit poll says PiS takes 10 out of 16 voivodeship Sejmiks. PO/N takes the rest.

Although it surely won't be in government in all 10 of them because of lack of coalition partners. A better question is - in which voivodeships PO+N+PSL+SLD don't have a majority?

Podkarpackie, Świętokrzyskie and Lubelskie for sure.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

So, in conclusion:

- PiS gets to claim victory because they've managed the biggest local election victory since 1998.
- PO+.N get to claim victory because they'll almost certainly keep all their high-profile mayoralties and may be able to keep PiS out of power in many voivodeships.
- PSL gets to claim victory because their  vote held up stunningly well considering their 2015 collapse and PiS hauling out the big guns against them this time round.
- Kukiz gets to claim victory because he didn't completely flop and has instead proved that he has at least some grassroots presence.
- Robert Biedroń gets to claim victory because he probably got his anointed successor elected in the first round in Słupsk and because SLD, Razem, and the Greens all flopped in this election he gets to step in as the centre-left saviour who will fix everything. (I suspect Razem will crawl under his wing entirely soon, and if they don't a lot of their members will. The Greens will be drunk off their 1% and flop hilariously next year.)
- Korwin can't claim victory. And honestly, nobody really cares.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So, in conclusion:

- PiS gets to claim victory because they've managed the biggest local election victory since 1998.
- PO+.N get to claim victory because they'll almost certainly keep all their high-profile mayoralties and may be able to keep PiS out of power in many voivodeships.
- PSL gets to claim victory because their  vote held up stunningly well considering their 2015 collapse and PiS hauling out the big guns against them this time round.
- Kukiz gets to claim victory because he didn't completely flop and has instead proved that he has at least some grassroots presence.
- Robert Biedroń gets to claim victory because he probably got his anointed successor elected in the first round in Słupsk and because SLD, Razem, and the Greens all flopped in this election he gets to step in as the centre-left saviour who will fix everything. (I suspect Razem will crawl under his wing entirely soon, and if they don't a lot of their members will. The Greens will be drunk off their 1% and flop hilariously next year.)
- Korwin can't claim victory. And honestly, nobody really cares.

I would say 1% for Greens, if also present in real results is also great victory. And for PSL such result is only similar to that from 2010 so they defended status quo without the booklet formed ballots and they proven they still can get decent result contrary to what all those people talking about fraud were saying.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Late poll: PiS - 33%., PO+.N - 26,7%., PSL - 13,6%., SLD - 6,6%, Kukiz - 5,9%., Independent Self-government - 5,8%., Korwin - 1,5%., Razem - 1,5%., RN - 1,3%., Greens - 1,1%

Latest Electoral Commission data shows turnout at 54.1%, which would be the highest turnout in the history of Polish local elections and higher than the 53.9% record turnout in the 2007 parliamentary elections. We don't have detailed results yet but I suspect the reason for this high turnout is the same as 2007 as well - the 'defend our local government from PiS' message PO+.N were hammering home and PiS' turn away from the centre near the end of the campaign with incredibly crass anti-immigrant ads and threats to cut off central government funding to cities that didn't elect PiS mayors got urban voters to turn out in droves, which led to PO+.N landslides in the major cities and prevented a bone-crushing PiS landslide in the voivodeship assemblies.

[bigic]

Are there any results from individual voivodeships?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Are there any results from individual voivodeships?

Ask again in Wednesday.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I'm not surprised with PSL results. They've been doing very well on the local level, where their political machine is really based. Rural voters will overwhelmingly vote for PiS on the national level, but it's more complicated below. SLD experiences a reversed situation. I can totally see them making comeback on the national level (and, let's be honest, they would've improved they results in 2015 if not for Ogórek and other stuff), but on the local level it's just sad.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Interestingly, Kukiz has done well in some places in the South - MP Wojciech Bakun, who was running for mayor of Przemysl in Podkarpacie, has won 41% in the first round and Kukiz candidates have won 5 out of 23 seats on the city council, while in Nowy Sacz Kukiz-endorsed independent Ludomir Handzel has entered the second round with 27% and could beat PiS candidate Iwona Mularczyk who came first with 33% depending on how the other PiS genepool candidates' voters swing. I'm not really sure why this has happened, but it's a good sign for Kukiz that he seems to be gaining some sort of lasting local presence.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I see Olsztyn is, once again, crazytown. Incumbent PSL mayor Piotr Grzymowicz will face off against former mayor Czeslaw Malkowski in the second round for the third time in as many elections. This would be amusing if it weren't for the fact that Malkowski was recalled from office in 2008 after being accused of sexually harassing and raping municipal employees, has been under investigation/on trial since then, was finally convicted in 2015, and is currently appealing the sentence. He's been claiming the accusations are the result of a conspiracy against him, because of course he has.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I am too lazy to write about some crazy stuff but for example in my voivodship PiS candidate was the only candidate running in the mayoral elections. What is so crazy about that? She lost. Almost 70% of voters voted against her, because voting was in form for/against.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I am too lazy to write about some crazy stuff but for example in my voivodship PiS candidate was the only candidate running in the mayoral elections. What is so crazy about that? She lost. Almost 70% of voters voted against her, because voting was in form for/against.

So what's the drill? Appointed commissioner?