Polish Politics and Elections

[jaichind]

Why cannot they release partial results?  They are taking all the fun out of this. 

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Oh well.

[afleitch]

Oh well.

'Poland has accepted Hungary's friendship request.'

[Bidenworth2020]

Oh well.

Is it over?

[jaichind]

Oh well.

Not sure about that.   It does seem the exit poll does not take into account the international vote.  Sure, I would prefer to be Duda than not. But it is not a lock for him yet. 

[Oryxslayer]

Oh well.

Is it over?

Well, we won't know until the votes are counted. Duda however has much more upside.

[Mike88]

It's too close to call.

But whoever wins will preside over a deeply divided country and I don't know if there's room for unity in Poland, specially during these troubling times.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Oh well.

Not sure about that.   It does seem the exit poll does not take into account the international vote.  Sure, I would prefer to be Duda than not. But it is not a lock for him yet.  

I'm "sure" either, but let's say I'm not hopeful.

Oh well.

'Poland has accepted Hungary's friendship request.'

You better make Scotland independent fast, because I may need a place to take refugee. I'm only half-joking.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It appears the voting in Split, Croatia, is still ongoing and can go as far as five more hours.

There's a rule that if you were in line before the polls closing time, you'll still get to vote, and it appears to extend to voting abroad. It's not just Poles living abroad that votes abroad, but people on holiday as well.

390 registered to vote in Dalmatia for the first round, but now they expect it could be as many as three thousand.

https://twitter.com/TyszkiewiczElk/status/1282405455785005057

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Kosiniak-Kamysz would have won.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, votes are now being counted on the official site.

[adma]

From EUElects liveblog:

Andrzej Duda won in Canada. He recieved 4720, while Trzaskowski recieved 3119. Despite this fact, Duda won only in Toronto, while Trzaskowski in Vancouver, Montreal and Ottawa.

I thought the overseas vote was supposed to be pro-Trazskowski?

It is...outside of NA.

Toronto's probably got more of an "Ethnoburban Conservative" streak--the same thing that buoys Ford Nation...

[Estrella]

From EUElects liveblog:

Andrzej Duda won in Canada. He recieved 4720, while Trzaskowski recieved 3119. Despite this fact, Duda won only in Toronto, while Trzaskowski in Vancouver, Montreal and Ottawa.

I thought the overseas vote was supposed to be pro-Trazskowski?

It is...outside of NA.

Toronto's probably got more of an "Ethnoburban Conservative" streak--the same thing that buoys Ford Nation...

Interesting that overseas voters in North America being more right wing is a thing for pretty much every country that has overseas voting that I know of. In the US I guess it's explained by osmosis from the Republicans and much more conservative public discourse, but I wonder why this is happening in Toronto - it's not like Fordismo has a huge media presence or an influential political party (seeing that everyone hates Dough now). Perhaps more culturally conservative people moving to places with larger Polish communities, i.e. only Toronto?

[jaichind]

Well, votes are now being counted on the official site.

Can you post the link.  I do not see anything

[Logical]

Final late poll (combination of exit polling and actual results)
AD - 51%
RT - 49%

MOE 1%
Foreign votes aren't included for the late poll.
Trzaskowski can still win, but his chances are getting slimmer.

[bigic]

Interesting that overseas voters in North America being more right wing is a thing for pretty much every country that has overseas voting that I know of. In the US I guess it's explained by osmosis from the Republicans and much more conservative public discourse, but I wonder why this is happening in Toronto - it's not like Fordismo has a huge media presence or an influential political party (seeing that everyone hates Dough now). Perhaps more culturally conservative people moving to places with larger Polish communities, i.e. only Toronto?

Or it has to do with nature of emigration (economic vs. political). As a rule, political emigrants from (post-)communist countries are more right-wing than economic emigrants.

[Oryxslayer]

Late Late projection for the polish vote is now 51-49 Duda. No diaspora votes included. If Duda loses it will be because of the votes from abroad.

Well, votes are now being counted on the official site.

Can you post the link.  I do not see anything

It's horribly designed, probably purposefully. If you click on a locality all the way down to the precint/poll level, you can see the results for said precinct/poll. Any higher and it's only the counted votes displayed. Someone has to run a scrape program to collect it all, and I'm not sure if there is an relatively fair media station out there who has run such a scrape.

https://wybory.gov.pl/prezydent20200628/pl/frekwencja/2/Koniec/pl

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

From EUElects liveblog:

Andrzej Duda won in Canada. He recieved 4720, while Trzaskowski recieved 3119. Despite this fact, Duda won only in Toronto, while Trzaskowski in Vancouver, Montreal and Ottawa.

I thought the overseas vote was supposed to be pro-Trazskowski?

It is...outside of NA.

Toronto's probably got more of an "Ethnoburban Conservative" streak--the same thing that buoys Ford Nation...

Interesting that overseas voters in North America being more right wing is a thing for pretty much every country that has overseas voting that I know of. In the US I guess it's explained by osmosis from the Republicans and much more conservative public discourse, but I wonder why this is happening in Toronto - it's not like Fordismo has a huge media presence or an influential political party (seeing that everyone hates Dough now). Perhaps more culturally conservative people moving to places with larger Polish communities, i.e. only Toronto?

Much of the Toronto diaspora has been there since the 80s. Same with e.g. Chicago. Older anti-communists getting their view of the mother country from hard-right sources and voting accordingly.

[jaichind]

exit poll by age

[jaichind]

Final late poll (combination of exit polling and actual results)
AD - 51%
RT - 49%

MOE 1%
Foreign votes aren't included for the late poll.
Trzaskowski can still win, but his chances are getting slimmer.

Time to accept my accolades ?

I think Duda mostly wins around the same margin as 2015, perhaps a bit less.  Something like 51-49

[adma]

From EUElects liveblog:

Andrzej Duda won in Canada. He recieved 4720, while Trzaskowski recieved 3119. Despite this fact, Duda won only in Toronto, while Trzaskowski in Vancouver, Montreal and Ottawa.

I thought the overseas vote was supposed to be pro-Trazskowski?

It is...outside of NA.

Toronto's probably got more of an "Ethnoburban Conservative" streak--the same thing that buoys Ford Nation...

Interesting that overseas voters in North America being more right wing is a thing for pretty much every country that has overseas voting that I know of. In the US I guess it's explained by osmosis from the Republicans and much more conservative public discourse, but I wonder why this is happening in Toronto - it's not like Fordismo has a huge media presence or an influential political party (seeing that everyone hates Dough now). Perhaps more culturally conservative people moving to places with larger Polish communities, i.e. only Toronto?

Much of the Toronto diaspora has been there since the 80s. Same with e.g. Chicago. Older anti-communists getting their view of the mother country from hard-right sources and voting accordingly.

But I think there's also a certain element to Toronto-style multiculturalism that essentially allows the modern-day Polish community to operate as a wholesale satellite of the "old country", with added North American conveniences.  That is, not so much the kind of "worldly cosmopolitanism" that might favour RT, as a "transplanted parochialism" that works on behalf of Duda.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I kind of take solace in the notion that due to polarization it would be even more difficult for Kaczyński to go Orban, his slim majority and the rubber-stamp President notwithstanding (because Duda himself doesn't matter, he's a mediocre man with no spine who'll sign anything his boss tells him to sign). I'd feel much more confident with Trzaskowski, who would at least veto authoritiarian projects the government passes, but it doesn't seem to be.

[Hope For A New Era]

exit poll by age

The typical right-wing populism voting pattern.

[Vosem]

exit poll by age

The typical right-wing populism voting pattern.

Is it? The usual pattern for the National Front, or the AfD, or the Sweden Democrats (and I think for Wilders' PVV) is strength with middle-aged voters and weakness with the very young and the very old. PiS has patterns typical of a conservative party of government in eastern Europe, but I don't think that's the same thing as right-wing populism. (For instance when the Slovakian Social Democrats -- who notwithstanding the name did not actually have positions all that different from PiS -- were defeated earlier this year their greatest strength was also with older voters).

[Tender Branson]

Late Late projection for the polish vote is now 51-49 Duda. No diaspora votes included. If Duda loses it will be because of the votes from abroad.

Well, votes are now being counted on the official site.

Can you post the link.  I do not see anything

It's horribly designed, probably purposefully. If you click on a locality all the way down to the precint/poll level, you can see the results for said precinct/poll. Any higher and it's only the counted votes displayed. Someone has to run a scrape program to collect it all, and I'm not sure if there is an relatively fair media station out there who has run such a scrape.

https://wybory.gov.pl/prezydent20200628/pl/frekwencja/2/Koniec/pl

That is only the turnout page, not actual results ...