Polish Politics and Elections

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

This is today. Will be very depressing

Yep. The only question is the size of PiS' majority.

Oh yes, there's also the question of both Left's performance and whether Korwin and Co. will cross the magic 5%, but the general outcome is not in question.

Would the PiS basically replicate Orbanism in Poland if they get a aupermajority? I think the assumption is that the PiS has done a decent job lurching to the right in a less scary and autocratic way than, say, Erdogen and Orban. Does a supermajority give them enough confidence to get scary?

Well, that's a good question. So far, despite the parliamentary opposition's almost comical incompetence, and having a majority on their own (first one-party majority since 1989*), they've been somewhat cautious, and some large public protests, like when there were proposals to adopt even more restrictive law, caused them to pull back (it was never an official government proposal, though). At the same time they've been quite busy in "reforming" court system in essentially Orbanesque way. Another mandate, and (hopefully not) constitutional majority could free them of restraint.

Though they managed to marginalize some of the more nutty far-right, like Korwin and Co., PiS did incorporate other far-right elements, and it shows.


* Technically PiS' parliamentary club/electoral list is not one party, but a coalition, with two or three minor parties, established by some of former PiS' leading members like Gowin or Ziobro, but it's essentially one force under one leader.

[jaichind]

Polls close at 9pm right?  I recall there were leaked exit polls before 9pm back in 2015.  Will that be true this time?  Really looking forward to the results.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Turnout by noon: 18.14%

Four years ago it was 16.47%

Polls close at 9pm right?  I recall there were leaked exit polls before 9pm back in 2015.  Will that be true this time?  Really looking forward to the results.

Yes but there's always a possibility of the electoral silence extended if vote is extended in at least one precinct for whatever reason (like, you know, someone's dropping dead, some procedural problem or many people actually turning up at the time the polls are supposed to close). That's been happening recently and everybody hates is.

There are probably going to be some cleverly disguised leaks. During 2015 presidential we've had "prices" for "pudding" (Duda) or "hunter's stew" (Komorowski).

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Speaking of turnout, I don't think we can read that much into it. Before 2015 it was widely expected that a high turnout will benefit PO, as PiS had more limited support, and thus faring well with low turnout (like in 2005). But that obviously changed.

[Walmart_shopper]

Speaking of turnout, I don't think we can read that much into it. Before 2015 it was widely expected that a high turnout will benefit PO, as PiS had more limited support, and thus faring well with low turnout (like in 2005). But that obviously changed.

To be fair, 50% is hardly stellar turnout. I wonder if it ends up closer to 60% whether the PiS majority could be in danger.

[Walmart_shopper]

I hate to read my own country's politics into Poland's, but after living in both I have to say that no country on earth reminds me politically of Israel as Poland. And this election really strikes me as a kind of twin to our own elections this year. Before the election Netanyahu wrapped up four contentious years marked by deepening divisions over religion and state with a strong right-religious alliance. The right wing teetered on the verge of a majority in polls, which cpupd cement framatic constitutional changes involving the nature of the courts and the political system, as well as key "wins" for the religious right on religious and educational policy. Poland seems to be positioned similarly today. As we know Israel chose w different path.

If Poland likewise chooses another way, it will probably be a loss for the PiS similar to the PO's 2010 disappointment. PiS may win, but only with no absolute majority and a their legislative ambitions dramatically curtailed.

Those are two very different paths. If I had to guess I'd say PiS will win a strong majority and the next few years will be see a dramatic consolidation of power on the right in various ways. But Polish elections always surprise me, so we'll see.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Speaking of turnout, I don't think we can read that much into it. Before 2015 it was widely expected that a high turnout will benefit PO, as PiS had more limited support, and thus faring well with low turnout (like in 2005). But that obviously changed.

To be fair, 50% is hardly stellar turnout. I wonder if it ends up closer to 60% whether the PiS majority could be in danger.

Well, here's a rundown of turnout in all elections since 1991:

1991: 43.2%
1993: 52.1%
1997: 47.9%
2001: 46.29%
2005: 40.57%
2007: 53.88%
2011: 48.92%
2015: 50.92%

In 1989, when only 35% of the seats were to be freely elected (remaining 65% of the seats being reserved for PZPR and satelite parties), the turnout was 62.7%.

Because one-member constituency system, with a runoff mandated if no candidate won an outright majority was used for these 35% of the seats, we've had 25% turnout in the second round.


And just to compare, here's turnout figures for presidential elections (1989 was an indirect election via the National Assembly):

1990: 60.6% (1st round), 53.4% (2nd round)
1995: 64.7% (1st round), 68.2% (2nd round)
2000: 61.08% (no runoff)
2005: 49.6% (1st round), 51.0% (2nd round)
2010: 54.94% (1st round), 55.31% (2nd round)
2015: 48.96% (1st round), 55.34% (2nd round)

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

By the way, here's a shot I took at an abandoned school last month, which is weirdly relevant today:



"Electoral Precinct Number 8 in Daniłowo"

[Walmart_shopper]

If early turnout reports mean anything they're, uh, not good for the opposition parties.https://mobile.twitter.com/LLemaniak/status/1183347295439466496

Turnout is quite high in PiS strongholds (although I suspect this is often the case).

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Speaking of turnout, I don't think we can read that much into it. Before 2015 it was widely expected that a high turnout will benefit PO, as PiS had more limited support, and thus faring well with low turnout (like in 2005). But that obviously changed.

To be fair, 50% is hardly stellar turnout. I wonder if it ends up closer to 60% whether the PiS majority could be in danger.

Marcin Palade (who knows his sh**t) is projecting 56-57% turnout based on this, but the increase so far seems to be highest in smaller towns and rural areas in the west, which are increasingly PiS-leaning.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

If early turnout reports mean anything they're, uh, not good for the opposition parties.https://mobile.twitter.com/LLemaniak/status/1183347295439466496

Turnout is quite high in PiS strongholds (although I suspect this is often the case).

It has always been the case.

[Walmart_shopper]

Speaking of turnout, I don't think we can read that much into it. Before 2015 it was widely expected that a high turnout will benefit PO, as PiS had more limited support, and thus faring well with low turnout (like in 2005). But that obviously changed.

To be fair, 50% is hardly stellar turnout. I wonder if it ends up closer to 60% whether the PiS majority could be in danger.

Marcin Palade (who knows his sh**t) is projecting 56-57% turnout based on this, but the increase so far seems to be highest in smaller towns and rural areas in the west, which are increasingly PiS-leaning.

Yeah, here is his map of turnout increases, which frankly looks A LOT more hopeful to KO.

https://twitter.com/MarcinPalade/status/1183355792822587392?s=20

[windjammer]

Any news?

[Walmart_shopper]

Any news?

Official turnout update in 30 minutes and the first wave of exits could be leaked at any moment.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Palade is leaking the first wave of his exit poll on Twitter right now. He projects turnout as of 5pm at 44-46% (was 39% in 2015)

[Double Carpet]

Hi all does anyone have a non-geoblocked link for Poland TV for the results programme?

Polls close 9pm local time?

Thanks!

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout at 17:00 was 46%, a whopping 7-point bump from 2015. Final turnout could even top 60%. Apparently among the highest turnouts are in very liberal Warsaw (55%) and Poznan. It's certainly perilous to get too worked up about turnout reports, all things considered, but I have to believe that PiS headquarters are not really thrilled right now.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Turnout for 17:00 - 45,94%, in 2015 it was 38,97%. The best result in Mazowieckie voivodship, second best in Małopolskie, third best in Pomorskie. So pretty much the same as in 2015 as for the geographical distribution.

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout at 17:00 was 46%, a whopping 7-point bump from 2015. Final turnout could even top 60%. Apparently among the highest turnouts are in very liberal Warsaw (55%) and Poznan. It's certainly perilous to get too worked up about turnout reports, all things considered, but I have to believe that PiS headquarters are not really thrilled right now.

For what it's worth, Warsaw was at 51% at 17:00 four years ago, so the rest of Poland has seen an even bigger bump than Warsaw.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout at 17:00 was 46%, a whopping 7-point bump from 2015. Final turnout could even top 60%. Apparently among the highest turnouts are in very liberal Warsaw (55%) and Poznan. It's certainly perilous to get too worked up about turnout reports, all things considered, but I have to believe that PiS headquarters are not really thrilled right now.

It could also mean that PiS is turning out voters in the West that previously didn’t vote for them. Or not at all.

This would then be a double shocker for the opposition, because PiS would hold their good results in the East and improve significantly in the West ...

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Turnout at 17:00 was 46%, a whopping 7-point bump from 2015. Final turnout could even top 60%. Apparently among the highest turnouts are in very liberal Warsaw (55%) and Poznan. It's certainly perilous to get too worked up about turnout reports, all things considered, but I have to believe that PiS headquarters are not really thrilled right now.

For what it's worth, Warsaw was at 51% at 17:00 four years ago, so the rest of Poland has seen an even bigger bump than Warsaw.

Yeah, as for the percentage change the biggest increases were on the west of the country. Zachodniopomorskie from 35.04% in 2015 went up to 44% in 2019, Lubuskie from 34% yp to 42%.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

FIRST WAVE EXIT POLL FROM PALADE:

PiS 47.1
PO 26.3
Left 12.8
PSL 7.7
Confederation 5.3

[Walmart_shopper]

Take it for what it's worth, but one leaked exit poll has PiS with 48 (!!!) percent of the vote. So, wow.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Take it for what it's worth, but one leaked exit poll has PiS with 48 (!!!) percent of the vote. So, wow.

If you mean https://twitter.com/MolSaski/status/1183409725226000384 , the next tweet is the person admitting it's a fake

[jaichind]

FIRST WAVE EXIT POLL FROM PALADE:

PiS 47.1
PO 26.3
Left 12.8
PSL 7.7
Confederation 5.3

Are the seat allocation pure PR or d'hondt?