Polish Politics and Elections

[TJ in Oregon]

And current (polls) map of constituencies according to Maciej Palade (Polish Nate Silver).



bright colour  0-10% lead
dark colour    +10% lead

Is it common to show PiS in red? Aren't they usually shown in blue? Or is there an Atlas Forum vs US media kind of thing here?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Is it common to show PiS in red? Aren't they usually shown in blue? Or is there an Atlas Forum vs US media kind of thing here?

I don't think I've ever seen PiS shown as red.

Here's a map from the Polish Press Agency (PAP), showing European election results by county:

 

I can see these colors used on many other sites.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

And current (polls) map of constituencies according to Maciej Palade (Polish Nate Silver).



bright colour  0-10% lead
dark colour    +10% lead

Is it common to show PiS in red? Aren't they usually shown in blue? Or is there an Atlas Forum vs US media kind of thing here?

Palade is only known by me person who uses such color divide, the most common is that one from Kal picture.



Oh, and today we had first debate in state TV. Very short, not really informative. Questions were about: 500+ social program, same-sex marriages, foreign policy (where host stated in question that USA-Poland relations are the best in history, a little bit suggestive), health care system, transparency of politics, agriculture.

The most ridiculous was one about agriculture as debate host asked that "candidates should be precise in their answers" and asked "what is the amount of UE farmer subsidies in Poland per farmer" and how big they should be. Only people knowing that were PiS representative, Jacek Sasin (vice-PM, by the way his performance is considered in social media as the worst from all participants) and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, leader of the PSL (and his performance is considered to be the best). The answer of PiS candidate looked like he was very prepared to this question, he quoted amounts of farmer subsidies from various EU countries. This caused some suspicions, even from the side of other candidates. Still. debate was boring - it was rather the presentation of narratives, not a debate. 

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

In any case, the opposition almost seem to be doing everything to lose the election. Aside of every gaffe and misstep possible, they've given up on making any efforts aimed at the PiS' stronghold. Sure there's no chance they could win over rural/small town voters in general, but under the proportional system it's all about making a dent. In 2015 PiS made a dent in PO's "natural" base, in addition to maxing their base support. Sometimes they seem to be more worried about the possible left resurgence than PiS' landslide victory. Furthermore KO is taking their stronghold over "big cities" for granted, putting up the face of a party of prosperous and happy urbane middle class, which isn't that appealing to large segments of urban populations, struggling with various issues.

I've been spending a lot of time in the eastern Masovia recently, which is PiS' strongholds. KO and other opposition forces could've easily exploited the fact the situation in the rural areas didn't really improved since PiS came to power, just to gain some additional support, but they essentially conceded. And what's worse, they're proceeding with their "stupid rural people will vote PiS no matter what" narrative, which only mobilizes more support for PiS there.

PiS getting reelected with absolute majority is inevitable and the only issue is whether they can pull Orban and get a constitutional majority (something I can't entirely discount as implausible) or "just" regular majority.


Apologies for somewhat incoherent rant.

[Donnie]

Battle for Polish Senate (100 seats)

100 single member constituencies, elected by simple majority.

Prediction as of 4 Oct. from @Senat2019 (group of political nerds)



bright colour - lean

dark colour - safe

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I haven't voted in Senate races since they introduced single-member seats. And now in my district (Warsaw-44) KO runs Ujazdowski, which makes me even less inclined to vote here.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I haven't voted in Senate races since they introduced single-member seats. And now in my district (Warsaw-44) KO runs Ujazdowski, which makes me even less inclined to vote here.

I bet you are less inclined to vote because you can't vote on Jaruzelska...

[Walmart_shopper]

In any case, the opposition almost seem to be doing everything to lose the election. Aside of every gaffe and misstep possible, they've given up on making any efforts aimed at the PiS' stronghold. Sure there's no chance they could win over rural/small town voters in general, but under the proportional system it's all about making a dent. In 2015 PiS made a dent in PO's "natural" base, in addition to maxing their base support. Sometimes they seem to be more worried about the possible left resurgence than PiS' landslide victory. Furthermore KO is taking their stronghold over "big cities" for granted, putting up the face of a party of prosperous and happy urbane middle class, which isn't that appealing to large segments of urban populations, struggling with various issues.

I've been spending a lot of time in the eastern Masovia recently, which is PiS' strongholds. KO and other opposition forces could've easily exploited the fact the situation in the rural areas didn't really improved since PiS came to power, just to gain some additional support, but they essentially conceded. And what's worse, they're proceeding with their "stupid rural people will vote PiS no matter what" narrative, which only mobilizes more support for PiS there.

PiS getting reelected with absolute majority is inevitable and the only issue is whether they can pull Orban and get a constitutional majority (something I can't entirely discount as implausible) or "just" regular majority.


Apologies for somewhat incoherent rant.

Well that's depressing, I think.

[jaichind]

In any case, the opposition almost seem to be doing everything to lose the election. Aside of every gaffe and misstep possible, they've given up on making any efforts aimed at the PiS' stronghold. Sure there's no chance they could win over rural/small town voters in general, but under the proportional system it's all about making a dent. In 2015 PiS made a dent in PO's "natural" base, in addition to maxing their base support. Sometimes they seem to be more worried about the possible left resurgence than PiS' landslide victory. Furthermore KO is taking their stronghold over "big cities" for granted, putting up the face of a party of prosperous and happy urbane middle class, which isn't that appealing to large segments of urban populations, struggling with various issues.

I've been spending a lot of time in the eastern Masovia recently, which is PiS' strongholds. KO and other opposition forces could've easily exploited the fact the situation in the rural areas didn't really improved since PiS came to power, just to gain some additional support, but they essentially conceded. And what's worse, they're proceeding with their "stupid rural people will vote PiS no matter what" narrative, which only mobilizes more support for PiS there.

PiS getting reelected with absolute majority is inevitable and the only issue is whether they can pull Orban and get a constitutional majority (something I can't entirely discount as implausible) or "just" regular majority.


Apologies for somewhat incoherent rant.

As great as this sounds one thing about this election which will be worse for me than 2015 is that it seems the Left will make it in this time versus 2015.    Hopefully the Confederation makes it in but that does not look like will be the case.  This does put a damper on things despite the clear United Right victory. 

[Walmart_shopper]

In any case, the opposition almost seem to be doing everything to lose the election. Aside of every gaffe and misstep possible, they've given up on making any efforts aimed at the PiS' stronghold. Sure there's no chance they could win over rural/small town voters in general, but under the proportional system it's all about making a dent. In 2015 PiS made a dent in PO's "natural" base, in addition to maxing their base support. Sometimes they seem to be more worried about the possible left resurgence than PiS' landslide victory. Furthermore KO is taking their stronghold over "big cities" for granted, putting up the face of a party of prosperous and happy urbane middle class, which isn't that appealing to large segments of urban populations, struggling with various issues.

I've been spending a lot of time in the eastern Masovia recently, which is PiS' strongholds. KO and other opposition forces could've easily exploited the fact the situation in the rural areas didn't really improved since PiS came to power, just to gain some additional support, but they essentially conceded. And what's worse, they're proceeding with their "stupid rural people will vote PiS no matter what" narrative, which only mobilizes more support for PiS there.

PiS getting reelected with absolute majority is inevitable and the only issue is whether they can pull Orban and get a constitutional majority (something I can't entirely discount as implausible) or "just" regular majority.


Apologies for somewhat incoherent rant.

As great as this sounds one thing about this election which will be worse for me than 2015 is that it seems the Left will make it in this time versus 2015.    Hopefully the Confederation makes it in but that does not look like will be the case.  This does put a damper on things despite the clear United Right victory. 

I'm just curious why you like the PiS. They are probably the most unlibertarian people on earth, and economically quite collectivist.

[jaichind]

I'm just curious why you like the PiS. They are probably the most unlibertarian people on earth, and economically quite collectivist.

I admire their nationalism.  Of course if I could have a nationalist-libertarian force like KORWiN in change I will take them over PiS.  But I have to be realistic when the alternative is PO.  In fact I do not object to PO that much either.  The distribution of political forces  in Poland is among the best in the world in my opinion.  I really only object to The Left, the rest are just different shades of support.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I haven't voted in Senate races since they introduced single-member seats. And now in my district (Warsaw-44) KO runs Ujazdowski, which makes me even less inclined to vote here.

I'm going to cast a protest vote for Kasprzak, even though he is solely the candidate of the activists and the Extremely Online and thus definitely isn't going to win, in the vain hope that a nice big number of votes for the 'fyck off Grzesiek, and take your wannabe Tories with you' option will get the opposition to wise up next time. It just feels a bit more constructive.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I haven't voted in Senate races since they introduced single-member seats. And now in my district (Warsaw-44) KO runs Ujazdowski, which makes me even less inclined to vote here.

I'm going to cast a protest vote for Kasprzak, even though he is solely the candidate of the activists and the Extremely Online and thus definitely isn't going to win, in the vain hope that a nice big number of votes for the 'fyck off Grzesiek, and take your wannabe Tories with you' option will get the opposition to wise up next time. It just feels a bit more constructive.

This makes sense. I guess I'll do the same.

Also: hey, we're living in the same district!

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I haven't voted in Senate races since they introduced single-member seats. And now in my district (Warsaw-44) KO runs Ujazdowski, which makes me even less inclined to vote here.

I'm going to cast a protest vote for Kasprzak, even though he is solely the candidate of the activists and the Extremely Online and thus definitely isn't going to win, in the vain hope that a nice big number of votes for the 'fyck off Grzesiek, and take your wannabe Tories with you' option will get the opposition to wise up next time. It just feels a bit more constructive.

This makes sense. I guess I'll do the same.

Also: hey, we're living in the same district!

I currently live in the UK, but votes from abroad go into 44.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I haven't voted in Senate races since they introduced single-member seats. And now in my district (Warsaw-44) KO runs Ujazdowski, which makes me even less inclined to vote here.

I'm going to cast a protest vote for Kasprzak, even though he is solely the candidate of the activists and the Extremely Online and thus definitely isn't going to win, in the vain hope that a nice big number of votes for the 'fyck off Grzesiek, and take your wannabe Tories with you' option will get the opposition to wise up next time. It just feels a bit more constructive.

This makes sense. I guess I'll do the same.

Also: hey, we're living in the same district!

I currently live in the UK, but votes from abroad go into 44.

You guys at least have chance to vote on decent candidate in Sejm elections. In my electoral district for the Sejm generally every leader of the list is some sort of a mistake (Zimoch for PO, Gliński for PiS, Trela for SLD), not even mentioning the Senate where there are two candidates of opposition and thanks to that PiS candidate might win.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I haven't voted in Senate races since they introduced single-member seats. And now in my district (Warsaw-44) KO runs Ujazdowski, which makes me even less inclined to vote here.

I'm going to cast a protest vote for Kasprzak, even though he is solely the candidate of the activists and the Extremely Online and thus definitely isn't going to win, in the vain hope that a nice big number of votes for the 'fyck off Grzesiek, and take your wannabe Tories with you' option will get the opposition to wise up next time. It just feels a bit more constructive.

This makes sense. I guess I'll do the same.

Also: hey, we're living in the same district!

I currently live in the UK, but votes from abroad go into 44.

You guys at least have chance to vote on decent candidate in Sejm elections. In my electoral district for the Sejm generally every leader of the list is some sort of a mistake (Zimoch for PO, Gliński for PiS, Trela for SLD), not even mentioning the Senate where there are two candidates of opposition and thanks to that PiS candidate might win.

Trela is a surprise, he seemed so comfortable with that ridiculous 'MUREM ZA HANKĄ' coalition that I assumed he'd switch to PO.

And of course the person after him, who might actually also get a seat if the polls are right, is Hanna Gill-Piątek, which... lol.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I haven't voted in Senate races since they introduced single-member seats. And now in my district (Warsaw-44) KO runs Ujazdowski, which makes me even less inclined to vote here.

I'm going to cast a protest vote for Kasprzak, even though he is solely the candidate of the activists and the Extremely Online and thus definitely isn't going to win, in the vain hope that a nice big number of votes for the 'fyck off Grzesiek, and take your wannabe Tories with you' option will get the opposition to wise up next time. It just feels a bit more constructive.

This makes sense. I guess I'll do the same.

Also: hey, we're living in the same district!

I currently live in the UK, but votes from abroad go into 44.

You guys at least have chance to vote on decent candidate in Sejm elections. In my electoral district for the Sejm generally every leader of the list is some sort of a mistake (Zimoch for PO, Gliński for PiS, Trela for SLD), not even mentioning the Senate where there are two candidates of opposition and thanks to that PiS candidate might win.

Trela is a surprise, he seemed so comfortable with that ridiculous 'MUREM ZA HANKĄ' coalition that I assumed he'd switch to PO.

And of course the person after him, who might actually also get a seat if the polls are right, is Hanna Gill-Piątek, which... lol.

Yeah. I am not voting on either of them. Although my parents and grandfather, and possibly handful of aunts etc. are voting for Trela so I guess he will not miss my vote.


Also:

apparently there is one candidate who is member of still legal Communist Party of Poland about which from time to time politicians are butthurting and trying to delegalize it.



This year they had their 5th Congress which was truly glamorous:

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

RIP Jan Szyszko, former Minister of Environmental Destruction.

[crals]

Why are the Greens running with the center-right instead of the center-left?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Why are the Greens running with the center-right instead of the center-left?

Because they were able to negotiate 2-3 pretty sure MP spots on the electoral lists while on the centre-left list they might get 0-1.

[Tender Branson]

This is today. Will be very depressing, but still ...

Results page:

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2019/en

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

This is today. Will be very depressing

Yep. The only question is the size of PiS' majority.

Oh yes, there's also the question of both Left's performance and whether Korwin and Co. will cross the magic 5%, but the general outcome is not in question.

[bigic]

Are there reports of vote buying and other irregularities?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Are there reports of vote buying and other irregularities?

It's pretty early, so I haven't heard anything.

A lot of folks publish photos of their marked ballots on social media, like during previous elections, which is certainly a violation of the electoral silence, but I haven't seen it ever prosecuted.

[Walmart_shopper]

This is today. Will be very depressing

Yep. The only question is the size of PiS' majority.

Oh yes, there's also the question of both Left's performance and whether Korwin and Co. will cross the magic 5%, but the general outcome is not in question.

Would the PiS basically replicate Orbanism in Poland if they get a aupermajority? I think the assumption is that the PiS has done a decent job lurching to the right in a less scary and autocratic way than, say, Erdogen and Orban. Does a supermajority give them enough confidence to get scary?