|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 15, 2020, 12:33:44 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  2020 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6
Author Topic: 2020 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread  (Read 30791 times)
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Moderators
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,827
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #100 on: October 16, 2018, 04:14:39 pm »

The "experts" strike again!



Never mind that Kate Brown has led in every poll recently and especially ignore Oregon's fundamentals, this is absolutely a tossup because reasons.
Logged
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,290
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #101 on: October 16, 2018, 07:33:09 pm »


Interesting that only 3% of voters are undecided on Prop 1. Guess people's stances are just really baked in now.
lol... nice
Logged
gottsu
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 823
Poland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #102 on: October 19, 2018, 04:04:31 pm »

Why 538 rates Iowa gubernatorial race as Likely D with Dem candidate 6% lead over GOP Kim Reynolds?

Wave election?

Logged
PQG and Libertarian Republican Pimp Slapped Coronavirus!
badger
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,948
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #103 on: October 23, 2018, 05:46:35 pm »


Interesting that only 3% of voters are undecided on Prop 1. Guess people's stances are just really baked in now.

Oh, I see what you did there.
Logged
libertpaulian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,918
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #104 on: October 23, 2018, 05:47:58 pm »

Why 538 rates Iowa gubernatorial race as Likely D with Dem candidate 6% lead over GOP Kim Reynolds?

Wave election?


Dem enthusiasm is through the roof in Iowa.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,600
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #105 on: October 23, 2018, 06:44:40 pm »

Why 538 rates Iowa gubernatorial race as Likely D with Dem candidate 6% lead over GOP Kim Reynolds?

Wave election?

538 says many things.
Logged
VirginiŠ
Virginia
Administrator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,726
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #106 on: October 23, 2018, 09:33:31 pm »

Conservative group spending $1.2M to defeat Proposal 2 redistricting commission

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/10/23/devos-proposal-2-redistricting-opposition/1743725002/

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

If they really wanted to tank this, they probably should have been more aggressive in fundraising and outreach sooner. But VNP might want to start raising more money of their own to at least partially counteract funding on the conservative side. The only way I could see it failing given the last couple polls is if conservatives raised an insane amount of money and were allowed to advertise unchallenged, as redistricting is a relatively opaque subject that people can be manipulated on.

I'm a bit skeptical it will fail in an election that is largely going to be super favorable to Michigan Democrats though.
Logged
Vern
vern1988
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.26, S: -2.43

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #107 on: October 24, 2018, 09:09:03 pm »

Anyone have any predictions on NC 5 amendments that are up this year?
Logged
VirginiŠ
Virginia
Administrator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,726
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #108 on: October 26, 2018, 09:42:00 am »

Redistricting initiative support surges in Michigan (now 59-29). Others are comfortably ahead.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/26/poll-michigan-ballot-proposals/1764291002/

Also lol @ this pollster's last name: Bernie Porn
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Moderators
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,827
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #109 on: October 26, 2018, 09:50:20 am »

Redistricting initiative support surges in Michigan (now 59-29). Others are comfortably ahead.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/26/poll-michigan-ballot-proposals/1764291002/

Also lol @ this pollster's last name: Bernie Porn

I would have hated to be that guy in 2016. In fact, I would still hate to be him.
Logged
Storr
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,476
Greenland


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #110 on: October 26, 2018, 06:53:31 pm »
« Edited: October 26, 2018, 06:57:13 pm by Storr »

Anyone have any predictions on NC 5 amendments that are up this year?

It's not super recent, but it's the most recent I found.
http://spectrumlocalnews.com/nc/charlotte/news/2018/10/08/exclusive-poll--nc-weighs-in-on-2018-elections--cooper--trump
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Moderators
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,827
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #111 on: October 28, 2018, 04:53:55 pm »

Florida Amendment 4 (restore felon voting rights) (NYT/Siena):

Yes 60%
No 31%
Undecided 9%

I am worried that the "undecideds" will just vote no, but 60 would be enough.
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,568
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #112 on: October 29, 2018, 12:15:31 am »

Florida Amendment 4 (restore felon voting rights) (NYT/Siena):

Yes 60%
No 31%
Undecided 9%

I am worried that the "undecideds" will just vote no, but 60 would be enough.

Passing this will effectively turn FL into a tilt D state
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #113 on: October 29, 2018, 07:02:55 pm »

Florida Amendment 4 (restore felon voting rights) (NYT/Siena):

Yes 60%
No 31%
Undecided 9%

I am worried that the "undecideds" will just vote no, but 60 would be enough.

Passing this will effectively turn FL into a tilt D state

*Crosses fingers* Though even for less cynical reasons, it would still be an overall positive.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Moderators
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,827
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #114 on: November 02, 2018, 01:45:04 pm »

PPP did a big North Carolina poll

State Supreme Court:
Anita Earls (D) 37
Barbara Jackson (R) 23
Chris Anglin (R) 14

They also have Democrats leading in two NC Court of Appeals races, one of them featuring similar vote splitting to the Supreme Court race.

The judicial vacancies powergrab amendment is failing 29-43, and the Elections Board powergrab amendment is also failing 40-32. Unfortunately, voter ID is passing 57-34 and the tax cap is passing 50-32.
Logged
VirginiŠ
Virginia
Administrator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,726
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #115 on: November 02, 2018, 01:53:48 pm »

PPP did a big North Carolina poll

State Supreme Court:
Anita Earls (D) 37
Barbara Jackson (R) 23
Chris Anglin (R) 14

They also have Democrats leading in two NC Court of Appeals races, one of them featuring similar vote splitting to the Supreme Court race.

The judicial vacancies powergrab amendment is failing 29-43, and the Elections Board powergrab amendment is also failing 40-32. Unfortunately, voter ID is passing 57-34 and the tax cap is passing 50-32.

Despite the last two failing, this is still a massive win. It means Democrats will have control of the election boards at least so long as Cooper or another Democrat is governor, and they will have a 5 - 2 Supreme Court majority. It's basically the end of shenanigans from the GOP and possibly a path to flipping the legislature before the next redistricting.
Logged
Wolverine22
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,823
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #116 on: November 02, 2018, 03:32:44 pm »

Michigan ballot proposals as of 10/30-11/1/18:

Proposal 1 (marijuana)
Yes: 57%
No: 40%
Undecided: 3%

Proposal 2 (independent redistricting)
Yes: 58.5%
No: 26.5%
Undecided: 15%

Proposal 3 (voterís rights)
Yes: 68.5%
No: 21.7%
Undecided: 9.8%
Logged
Ebsy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #117 on: November 03, 2018, 01:12:12 am »

Glorious!
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,376
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #118 on: November 03, 2018, 08:35:10 am »

PPP did a big North Carolina poll

State Supreme Court:
Anita Earls (D) 37
Barbara Jackson (R) 23
Chris Anglin (R) 14

They also have Democrats leading in two NC Court of Appeals races, one of them featuring similar vote splitting to the Supreme Court race.

The judicial vacancies powergrab amendment is failing 29-43, and the Elections Board powergrab amendment is also failing 40-32. Unfortunately, voter ID is passing 57-34 and the tax cap is passing 50-32.

Despite the last two failing, this is still a massive win. It means Democrats will have control of the election boards at least so long as Cooper or another Democrat is governor, and they will have a 5 - 2 Supreme Court majority. It's basically the end of shenanigans from the GOP and possibly a path to flipping the legislature before the next redistricting.

If the Democrats can kill the super majority this year, they should sue for new maps on day one.
Logged
PQG and Libertarian Republican Pimp Slapped Coronavirus!
badger
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,948
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #119 on: November 06, 2018, 09:43:19 am »

PPP did a big North Carolina poll

State Supreme Court:
Anita Earls (D) 37
Barbara Jackson (R) 23
Chris Anglin (R) 14

They also have Democrats leading in two NC Court of Appeals races, one of them featuring similar vote splitting to the Supreme Court race.

The judicial vacancies powergrab amendment is failing 29-43, and the Elections Board powergrab amendment is also failing 40-32. Unfortunately, voter ID is passing 57-34 and the tax cap is passing 50-32.

Despite the last two failing, this is still a massive win. It means Democrats will have control of the election boards at least so long as Cooper or another Democrat is governor, and they will have a 5 - 2 Supreme Court majority. It's basically the end of shenanigans from the GOP and possibly a path to flipping the legislature before the next redistricting.

If the Democrats can kill the super majority this year, they should sue for new maps on day one.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,654
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #120 on: November 10, 2018, 12:38:52 am »

Update from Oregon on Ballot Initiatives:

MEASURE 105 REPEALS LAW LIMITING USE OF STATE/LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT RESOURCES TO ENFORCE FEDERAL IMMIGRATION LAWS (36.7% YES- 63.3% NO). Almost 2:1 Support for sanctuary State laws in Oregon.



MEASURE 106 AMENDS CONSTITUTION: PROHIBITS SPENDING 'PUBLIC FUNDS' (DEFINED) DIRECTLY/INDIRECTLY FOR 'ABORTION' (DEFINED); EXCEPTIONS; REDUCES ABORTION ACCESS

(35.6% YES--- 64.4% NO)



So despite Republican attempts to put Abortion and Immigration on the ballot to spur Turnout in the '18 GE, it appears that was not successful when it came to the OR-GOV race.

Food for thought....


Logged
VirginiŠ
Virginia
Administrator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,726
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #121 on: November 17, 2018, 09:35:10 am »

I can't help but feel like Michigan Republicans are going to resist the voting rights expansion passed by voters. Whitmer's vetoes could prevent them from being sneaky, but if they pass implementing legislation before she takes office, they will have more discretion.

For example, perhaps Republicans only allow same-day registration at govt offices and not at polling places during election day (the amendment implies at polling places too but Republicans can ignore that and hope the state supreme court bails them out)? There is a big difference. Or what about no-excuse absentee voting? Does this mean MI gets actual in-person early voting or are they going to stick to mail? Because, again, there is a huge difference in the actual effect on the convenience of voting for people. How will election audits be done?

Maybe I'm overthinking it, but one thing I've learned is to never, ever trust Republicans to implement ballot initiatives fairly. Michigan Republicans are already proving why that is with the min. wage and paid sick leave initiatives they short-circuited. And we all know the emergency manager veto referendum they invalidated with cheap tricks.
Logged
VirginiŠ
Virginia
Administrator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,726
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #122 on: November 27, 2018, 06:00:05 pm »

Should have waited until 2020 to get this one on the ballot tbh:

Logged
lfromnj
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,645


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #123 on: November 27, 2018, 06:06:59 pm »

Should have waited until 2020 to get this one on the ballot tbh:



LOL of course it depends on black Missouri lawmakers to work with the republicans.
Logged
mrappaport1220
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 277
United States


P P P

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #124 on: December 08, 2018, 10:33:32 pm »

!!!!
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.105 seconds with 13 queries.