2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread
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  2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread
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Author Topic: 2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread  (Read 57328 times)
Kodak
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« Reply #75 on: September 06, 2018, 08:12:58 PM »

They're ripping off my trademarked totally accurate poll-based prediction model™!

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Kodak
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« Reply #76 on: September 06, 2018, 08:17:23 PM »


Edit: I guess Ohio and Nevada are different, so they're just making guesses based on the early polls, unlike my consistent and very robust mathematical model.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #77 on: September 11, 2018, 06:58:21 PM »

I have an Arkansas Governor’s poll to enter. I cannot figure out how to add it.

Hutchinson 60%
Henderson 25%

https://talkbusiness.net/2018/09/hutchinson-has-commanding-lead-trump-job-approval-at-52/
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #78 on: September 11, 2018, 07:00:16 PM »

I have an Arkansas Governor’s poll to enter. I cannot figure out how to add it.

Hutchinson 60%
Henderson 25%

https://talkbusiness.net/2018/09/hutchinson-has-commanding-lead-trump-job-approval-at-52/

eh, thats too bad. I liked Henderson. I guess I like asa too, but definitely prefer him.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #79 on: September 11, 2018, 07:06:54 PM »

I have an Arkansas Governor’s poll to enter. I cannot figure out how to add it.

Hutchinson 60%
Henderson 25%

https://talkbusiness.net/2018/09/hutchinson-has-commanding-lead-trump-job-approval-at-52/

I'll add it later. But yeah, this is the safest R race in the country. Popular Republican incumbent running in a deep red state that is only trending redder with only token opposition.
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #80 on: September 12, 2018, 09:01:48 AM »

Supreme Court clears the way for Nebraskans to vote on Medicaid expansion
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #81 on: September 12, 2018, 08:35:53 PM »


Wow! Wonder how this will poll in November?

Honestly, as an Oregonian, I am completely mystified as to why the petitioners thought it a good idea to challenge the right of the people of the great state of Nebraska, to place a measure on the ballot, where the ballot access threshold was already clearly met.

Lawsuits being lawsuits can always happen later after a ballot measure is approved in the event that ballot initiatives are poorly written, have unintended legal loopholes, etc....

We have seen that happen before in Oregon where various State Ballot Initiatives were struck down after passage for various reasons, but this preemptive strike likely appears to many Citizens of Nebraska as mean-spirited and an attempt to undermine their fundamental rights under Nebraska law to at least vote on this initiative.

I suspect this will backfire against the challengers to the proposed initiative.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #82 on: September 14, 2018, 05:38:11 PM »

Asa Hutchinson is definitely among the worst governors in the country, possibly the absolute worst. It is a total shame that he appears set for a landslide re-election.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #83 on: September 16, 2018, 12:09:08 AM »

Another right wing activist judge legislating his values from the bench:

Judge orders Clean Missouri amendment removed from November ballot
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Panhandle Progressive
politicaljunkie
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« Reply #84 on: September 16, 2018, 12:08:23 PM »

Drug legalization/possession:
MI: IISS - Marijuana legalization for recreational use
OH: Issue 1 - Makes drug possession and use offenses misdemeanors and allocates savings to programs

Medicaid:
ID: Prop 2 - Expands Medicaid under the ACA
NE: Init. 427  - Expands Medicaid under the ACA
UT: Prop 3 - Expands Medicaid under the ACA

Minimum Wage:
MI: Minimum Wage increase was but to appear on the Nov. ballot, but the state legislature has already approved it
MO: Prop B - Increases the minimum wage to $12

Time Change:
CA: Prop 7 - Authorizes legislature to provide for permanent daylight saving time if the federal government allows

Voting Access:
FL: Amndmnt 4 - Restores the right to vote for most people with prior felony convictions upon completion of their sentences
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #85 on: September 16, 2018, 03:42:17 PM »

The plan of the Michigan State Legislature is to act on the minimum wage measure to remove it from the ballot, and then to repeal it after the elections.
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YE
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« Reply #86 on: September 16, 2018, 04:49:28 PM »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/10/they-have-taken-away-our-vote-michigan-approves-minimum-wage-hike-paid-sick-leave-setting-up-clash/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.2fc91016731b

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So thanks to this loophole all work getting these progressive measures on the ballot turned to nothing. Now these organizers have to try again in 2020 to start for nothing.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #87 on: September 17, 2018, 10:22:35 AM »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/10/they-have-taken-away-our-vote-michigan-approves-minimum-wage-hike-paid-sick-leave-setting-up-clash/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.2fc91016731b

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So thanks to this loophole all work getting these progressive measures on the ballot turned to nothing. Now these organizers have to try again in 2020 to start for nothing.

Ballot initiative tampering is part of the GOP's troubling anti-democracy streak over the past ~4 years. In South Dakota, they passed an "emergency bill" with a 3/4th vote to get rid of the ethics commission that votes recently approved in what was a brazen FU to the voters of SD. Voters then moved to get it on the ballot again for 2018, and Republicans moved to heavily restrict ballot initiatives, including subject limitations and a ban on outside funding.

Michigan Republicans have also long used cheap tricks to completely overturn the will of the voters. They passed that emergency manager bill that led to Flint's poisoning and it was overturned by voters in a veto referendum, then they passed it again with a money allocation tied to it and voters were prohibited from overturning it due to a ban on veto referendums for budgets. Republicans used this trick on numerous other initiatives. They also shortened the time window to try and short circuit a marijuana legalization initiative as well.

Arizona also came awfully close to South Dakota-style restrictions in 2016.

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My opinion is that much like Republicans calling for states rights but refusing to allow cities/towns to govern themselves, Republicans do not wish to share any power with anyone else, particularly when it goes against their agenda. And they have no qualms about repealing initiatives voters approve by overwhelming majorities. Sort of like how a parent might dictate to their child what they can and cannot do. This is made worse by gerrymandering and voter suppression, which emboldens them to do this with little care for repercussions, as they have largely walled themselves off from accountability.

Not to say this is limited to Republicans either. Democrats have had their fair share of initiative tampering, but most of the recent, more serious examples are from Republicans.
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American2020
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« Reply #88 on: September 20, 2018, 11:23:46 AM »

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junior chįmp
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« Reply #89 on: September 28, 2018, 09:57:37 AM »

Some new polling on MI's ballot initiatives:

Michigan Ballot Proposals Poll:
 
Prop 1 (Marijuana) Yes 55%, No 41%
Prop 2 (Redistricting) Yes 48%, No 32%
Prop 3 (Voting Rights) Yes 70%, No 25%
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #90 on: September 28, 2018, 10:07:14 AM »


All three of those are really encouraging to see.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #91 on: October 01, 2018, 05:17:56 PM »

The RGA keeps on triaging Jeff Johnson. They just cancelled TV ads that were scheduled for Oct. 10 thru Oct. 23

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1046880618821423104
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Virginiá
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« Reply #92 on: October 04, 2018, 01:44:49 PM »

Not sure on the exact margins, but the new LA Times polls of competitive CA House districts showed the gas tax repeal initiative failing pretty badly:

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It's hard to see how that passes if it's only getting 1/3rd of the vote in Walters' district. It was supposed to be cat nip for Orange County voters. I suppose it doesn't help that the No camp is outspending Yes 18 to 1.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
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« Reply #93 on: October 05, 2018, 01:00:30 AM »

Not sure on the exact margins, but the new LA Times polls of competitive CA House districts showed the gas tax repeal initiative failing pretty badly:

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It's hard to see how that passes if it's only getting 1/3rd of the vote in Walters' district. It was supposed to be cat nip for Orange County voters. I suppose it doesn't help that the No camp is outspending Yes 18 to 1.


How it looks per district (Yes/No/Undecided):

CA-10:    30 - 41 - 29
CA-22:    40 - 37 - 23
CA-25:    37 - 39 - 24
CA-39:    40 - 37 - 23
CA-45:    33 - 44 - 23
CA-48:    33 - 45 - 22
CA-49:    32 - 48 - 20
CA-50:    44 - 37 - 19


https://igs.berkeley.edu/igs-poll/berkeley-igs-poll
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #94 on: October 05, 2018, 06:01:14 AM »

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/10/04/poll-support-november-ballot-proposals-strong/1526518002/?utm_campaign=speakable&utm_medium=amp&utm_source=google

Prop 1 (Marijuana legalization) up 62-35, Prop 2 (redistricting commission) up 55-23, Prop 3 (voting rights) leads 72-19 (!)
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American2020
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« Reply #95 on: October 05, 2018, 07:49:42 AM »

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KingSweden
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« Reply #96 on: October 05, 2018, 08:29:53 AM »

SD Gov... man I want to believe, but I know better
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #97 on: October 05, 2018, 09:12:17 AM »



South Dakota 👀
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #98 on: October 05, 2018, 10:10:48 AM »



South Dakota 👀
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #99 on: October 08, 2018, 03:31:13 AM »


Interesting that only 3% of voters are undecided on Prop 1. Guess people's stances are just really baked in now.
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