Hillary Wins

[MycroftCZ]

Intrigued by Hagan. If Kasich goes down for any reason, the succession would be crazy. The Republicans would lose the presidency, and the Democrats would be forced to accept a defector as leader. Has Hagan let her party membership lapse?

Nope, Hagan is staying a Democrat. She'll definitely be someone to watch out for...

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Not a fan of Kasich (too basic) and I don't know enough about Hagan yet to form a solid opinion. Not a fan of Hydrogen Hillary either, but if Haslam Primaries Blackburn in 2024, all will be forgiven

[MycroftCZ]

Feburary 26th, 2021: Kasich Pulls Back Business Regulations


President Kasich today signed 4 Executive Orders pulling back Obama and Clinton-era regulations on businesses. Kasich said, "we need to start giving more freedom to our economy, to unleash the markets to new heights". This is the first of many orders and agenda accomplishments excepted in the "Kasich Action Plan", a Kasich agenda to balance the budget and reorganize the priorities of the federal government. Vice President Hagan joined Kasich at the signing ceremony and praised the President for "doing right by America small businesses".

March 1st, 2021: Enough Democrats Support Balanced Budget Amendment to Pass Senate


Today, 20 Democrats signed a letter saying that they support President Kasich's Balance Budget Amendment to the Constitution, giving it enough votes to pass the Senate. Many moderate Democrats signed the letter, such as Montana Democrat Steve Bullock and Missouri's Jason Kander. Even more center-left Senators signed on, such as Michigan Senator Gary Peters or New Hampshire Senators Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen. This is a major win for the Kasich administration, who are setting their hopes of a first big win on this amendment. The House is another story, with only 11 Democrats coming out in support so far. But, President Kasich expects a slow trickle of Democrats announcing support in the House.

March 8th, 2021: Democrats Pour Money Into PA-15


With a special election in Pennsylvania's 15 Congressional District looming, the Democratic party is testing whether their new strategy will work to retake Congress. Democrats have been in the minority in the House since 2011, ten long years for top Democrats in the Lower Chamber. Now, the DCCC is launching an aggressive campaign to take back the House and their first test will be in Pennsylvania. With a PVI of R+4, Democrats see an opening to pick up a key seat. The candidate is also a major path to victory, as Democrats recruited 68-year-old Allentown Mayor Ray O'Connell to run for the seat. Polls show the race close between O'Connell and Republican Paul Rizzo.

PA-15 Special Election Polls:
O'Connell: 49%
Rizzo: 45%

March 16th, 2021: Clinton Cabinet Eyes 2024


The race behinds the scenes for the 2024 Democratic nomination is already underway and many Clinton administration officials are eyeing the White House. Former Secretary of State Joe Donnelly, former Attorney General Terry McAuliffe, former Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack and former Vice President Tim Kaine are all reportedly making the first moves towards potential Presidential campaigns. But, many Democrats believes they will have to shift left to beat President Kasich, framing him as a fake moderate and "just another Republican". This could backfire and could further alienate moderate Democrats, who a decent chunk of whom voted for President Kasich in 2020.

Kasich Approval Rating:
Approve: 67%
Disapprove: 28%

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Go Kasich!!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Gonna throw out some early predictions for the 2024 Dem Primary:

Booker
Donnelly
Feingold (The Sanders endorsed candidate)
Garcetti or Harris
Gillibrand
Hickenlooper
Kaine
Kander

I'm surprised you didn't throw in Kamala Harris from CA.

[MycroftCZ]

March 22nd, 2021: BBA Passes House


The Balanced Budget Amendment to the Consitution has passed Congress, with 299 votes in the House of Representatives, with all Republicans and 110 Democrats supporting the amendment. This is a major win for the Kasich administration and is the first major campaign promise that he has kept, the first step in his "Kasich Action Plan". Speaker Ryan called the win a "huge victory for America" while President Kasich said it was a "fundamental change in the way our government functions, for the better". Minority Leader Tim Ryan did not support the BBA but did not actively whip votes against its passage, seeing taking it on as a bad political move. Polls show that almost all Americans support requiring the federal government to have a balanced budget.

March 25th, 2021: All 50 States Radify Balance Budget Amendment, Officially Part of Constitution


All 50 states in America have ratified the Balanced Budget Amendment, officially putting it into the Constitution of the USA. The BBA only needed 38 states to ratify, but all 50 did. The last state to do so was California, which debated the amendment for 11 hours. President Kasich's popularity will likely rise after his first major win and a big moment in American history. Democrats and Republicans alike celebrated the win as The Balanced Budget Amendment became the 28th Amendment to the Constitution.

March 29th, 2021: Democrats Gain PA-15, $4.3 Million Later


In a big win for Democrats, Allentown Mayor Ray O'Connell has won the special election seat to fill Sec. of Labor Charlie Dent's old Congressional seat. The Pennsylvania 15th went to the Democrat with 51% of the votes, defeating Republican Paul Rizzo who got 48%. Democrats spent a lot of money in this race, with a total of $4.3 million going into the district from the DCCC. O'Connell only spent $800,000 by comparison. The RCCC spent $1 million. This is the first win of an aggressive campaign to take back the House of Representatives by Minority Leader Tim Ryan and the DNC.

PA-15: 99% Reporting
O'Connell: 51.2%
Rizzo: 48.5%

Kasich Approval Rating:
Approve: 72%
Disapprove: 24%

[OBD]

Damn, those Kasich approvals.

[MycroftCZ]

Wouldn't the districts be changed in 2022 due to reapportionment?

Yeah... let's just say, for my own sanity, that they don't change till mid-2021

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Want me to draw districts for you?

[MycroftCZ]

Want me to draw districts for you?

That sounds amazing! But don't feel like you have to...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Want me to draw districts for you?

That sounds amazing! But don't feel like you have to...

No need to feel shy!
Where do I start?

[MycroftCZ]

April 3rd, 2021: Manchin Launches "Common Sense Democrats Campaign"


Former West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin is launching a campaign to recruit moderate/Blue Dog Democrats to run for Senate and Governorships in the 2022 midterms. Manchin was a conservative Democrat serving in the Senate from West Virginia, voting against President Clinton 57% of the time and President Obama 54% of the time. Manchin retired in 2018 but came back to deliver a blistering attack on the Democratic party last year. Manchin, in that speech, said that he would actively look for moderate Democrats to run for offices. Now, he is making good on that promise. Manchin praised newly elected Democrats who have already taken a bipartisan approach in the Senate, such as Montana Senator Steve Bullock or Louisiana Senator Mitch Landrieu. Manchin said that he will be targeting southern states that have been increasingly Republican in recent years but could elect a moderate Democrat is given the chance.

April 8th, 2021: GOP Holds KS-2 with Return of Congressman


Former Congressman Jim Ryun is back in his old Congressional seat after winning a special election in Kansas after Lynn Jenkins was tapped as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Ryun lost a primary to Jenkins in 2012 and now, at the age of 73, he is back in Congress. Ryun defeated Democrat Bryan R. Whitney in a narrower margin than some expected. The DCCC did not pour as much money into this race as they did PA-15, only spending $100,000 on the race. The RNC spend virtually no money and Ryun won by 20 points. Minority Leader Tim Ryun did say that Ryun victory was "significantly smaller" than Jenkins' win in 2020. But, Democrats spent a lot more money here than in 2020 and only narrowed the Republican margin of victory by 7 points.

KS-2: 99% Precincts Reporting
Ryun: 59.4%%
Whitney: 39.1%

April 16th, 2021: Missouri Governor Eric Greitens "likely" to Run for Senate


The most vulnerable Democrat up for reelction in 2022, Missouri Sen. Jason Kander, will face a tough reelection bid. Missouri Governor Eric Greitens said today that it is "likely" that he will run for Senate in 2022, giving Kander his strongest possible opponent. Greitens is know for being overly ambitious and is seen by almost all Republicans to be eyeing a White House run sometime in the future. Early polling shows Kander and Greitens deadlocked, with a small advantage to Greitens in a pretty solidly red state. Kander has been one of the most moderate Democrats in the Senate and that bipartisan record could help him with Independents and moderate Republicans in 2022.

Kasich Approval Rating:
Approve: 69%
Disapprove: 29%

[UWS]

Did Greitens still get engaged in the extramarital affair like he did in real life?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Hopefully Greitens' scandal breaks mid-campaign, leading to an easy Kander win!

[MycroftCZ]

Did Greitens still get engaged in the extramarital affair like he did in real life?

Yes, but the public doesn't know about it yet

[MycroftCZ]

April 23rd, 2021: Lincoln Jumps Into Arkansas Senate Race for Old Seat


In the first major recruitment of former Senator Joe Manchin's "Common Sense Democrats Campaign" or SCDC, former Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln is jumping into the race for the Senate seat currently held by Republican John Boozman. Lincoln lost to Boozman by 20 points back in 2010 and was not expected to enter this race. Manchin said that Lincoln was one of their "top possible recruits" and Lincoln said that she hopes to win the race for "old-school Democrats who remember when the South was battleground territory and not "red wall'". Lincoln was a very moderate Democrat and is only 61, pretty young for a former Senator running for her old seat. Senator Boozman's campaign said that "Arkansas rejected Mrs. Lincoln 11 years ago. Arkansans want a conservative in Congress, not a liberal former Senator".

May 2nd, 2021: GOP Turns Attention to Tax Code


President Kasich and Congressional Republican are eyeing a possible bill to revamp the American tax plan. They are working on a plan that would simplify the tax code and would give major tax breaks to the middle class. This is also a major step in the President's "Kasich Action Plan" and would be a second congressional win for the Kasich administration. Majority Leader John Cornyn and Speaker Paul Ryan are also crafting the legislation. Democrats are being given a much smaller role on this bill than the Balanced Budget Amendment, signally a willingness of President Kasich to work solely with Republicans. Many conservative Republicans have said that they hope Kasich will work with more Republicans and the White House sees this tax plan as a win they can take on a more partisan basis.

May 11th, 2021: Kennedy to Retire


Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy will retire in June, opening up a seat on the Supreme Court for President Kasich to fill. Kennedy is seen as a right-leaning swing vote in the Supreme Court and is the oldest serving justice. Kasich said that he plans to fill the seat with a likeminded person, another conservative who is moderate on most social issues. Kennedy said that serving on SCOTUS was "the honor of a lifetime" and said that "the Supreme Court is a body that needs new blood and stepping down is a way to do that". Justice Kennedy's retirement leaves Clarence Thomas as the oldest serving justice at the age of 73. Right now the Supreme Court has a liberal lean and Kennedy's retirement will not change that.

Kasich Approval Rating:
Approve: 68%
Disapprove: 26%

[here2view]

April 23rd, 2021: Lincoln Jumps Into Arkansas Senate Race for Old Seat


In the first major recruitment of former Senator Joe Manchin's "Common Sense Democrats Campaign" or SCDC, former Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln is jumping into the race for the Senate seat currently held by Republican John Boozman. Lincoln lost to Boozman by 20 points back in 2010 and was not expected to enter this race. Manchin said that Lincoln was one of their "top possible recruits" and Lincoln said that she hopes to win the race for "old-school Democrats who remember when the South was battleground territory and not "red wall'". Lincoln was a very moderate Democrat and is only 61, pretty young for a former Senator running for her old seat. Senator Boozman's campaign said that "Arkansas rejected Mrs. Lincoln 11 years ago. Arkansans want a conservative in Congress, not a liberal former Senator".

Boozman going to get B L A N C H E D

[libertpaulian]

I'd love to see a midterm where Democrats make Congressional and gubernatorial gains in the South, but Republicans make gains in the North.

[vanteran]

I know I'm one of those annoying correcting guys (lol), as I did some Senate makeup calculations for this TL and discovered the new balance of power should be 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats, not 52 R and 48 D (Republicans should have a narrower majority). Below is a breakdown.

2016 Results
51 Democrats (+5)
49 Republicans (-5)

Post-Murkowski and Kaine Resignations
52 Democrats (+1)
48 Republicans (-1)

Post-2017 Special Elections Makeup
50 Democrats (-2)
50 Republicans (+2)

2018 Results (34 seats up: 24 Democratic, 10 Republican)
56 Republicans (+6)
44 Democrats (-6)

Republicans won 16/34 of these seats:

Arizona
Arizona (Special)
Florida
Indiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
North Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah (McMullin caucusing)
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

= (50 - 10) + 16 = 40 + 16 = 56 seats (not 57)

Democrats won the remaining 18/34 seats:

California
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Maine (King caucusing)
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Nevada
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont (Sanders caucusing)
Washington

= (50 - 24) + 18 = 26 + 18 = 44 seats (not 43)

Therefore, here's the more accurate 2020 Results:
Republicans: 51 (-5)
Democrats: 49 (+5)

Also, it was indicated on the 2018 midterms results that the new House of Representatives makeup was 252 R to 183 D. If the Dems gained 9 seats as mentioned on the "President-elect Kasich" post, shouldn't the new House of Representatives makeup be 243 R to 192 D (not 246-189)?

Sorry for the long post haha

[Progressive Pessimist]

April 23rd, 2021: Lincoln Jumps Into Arkansas Senate Race for Old Seat


In the first major recruitment of former Senator Joe Manchin's "Common Sense Democrats Campaign" or SCDC, former Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln is jumping into the race for the Senate seat currently held by Republican John Boozman. Lincoln lost to Boozman by 20 points back in 2010 and was not expected to enter this race. Manchin said that Lincoln was one of their "top possible recruits" and Lincoln said that she hopes to win the race for "old-school Democrats who remember when the South was battleground territory and not "red wall'". Lincoln was a very moderate Democrat and is only 61, pretty young for a former Senator running for her old seat. Senator Boozman's campaign said that "Arkansas rejected Mrs. Lincoln 11 years ago. Arkansans want a conservative in Congress, not a liberal former Senator".

Boozman going to get B L A N C H E D

This would be some truly ironic revenge.

[MycroftCZ]

I know I'm one of those annoying correcting guys (lol), as I did some Senate makeup calculations for this TL and discovered the new balance of power should be 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats, not 52 R and 48 D (Republicans should have a narrower majority). Below is a breakdown.

2016 Results
51 Democrats (+5)
49 Republicans (-5)

Post-Murkowski and Kaine Resignations
52 Democrats (+1)
48 Republicans (-1)

Post-2017 Special Elections Makeup
50 Democrats (-2)
50 Republicans (+2)

2018 Results (34 seats up: 24 Democratic, 10 Republican)
56 Republicans (+6)
44 Democrats (-6)

Republicans won 16/34 of these seats:

Arizona
Arizona (Special)
Florida
Indiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
North Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah (McMullin caucusing)
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

= (50 - 10) + 16 = 40 + 16 = 56 seats (not 57)

Democrats won the remaining 18/34 seats:

California
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Maine (King caucusing)
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Nevada
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont (Sanders caucusing)
Washington

= (50 - 24) + 18 = 26 + 18 = 44 seats (not 43)

Therefore, here's the more accurate 2020 Results:
Republicans: 51 (-5)
Democrats: 49 (+5)

Also, it was indicated on the 2018 midterms results that the new House of Representatives makeup was 252 R to 183 D. If the Dems gained 9 seats as mentioned on the "President-elect Kasich" post, shouldn't the new House of Representatives makeup be 243 R to 192 D (not 246-189)?

Sorry for the long post haha

lol, I accidentally added McMullin's win in Utah as a GOP gain to it is 51-49 right now. As the for House, I am pretty sure it's 245-190. Thanks for catching that!

[MycroftCZ]

May 15th, 2021: Kasich Nominates David Lowy to Supreme Court


President Kasich today announced that he will nominate David Lowy to the Supreme Court, filling retiring Anthony Kennedy's seat on the bench. Lowy is the Associate Justice on the Massachusetts Superior Court and was appointed by moderate Republican Governor Charlie Baker. Lowy is a consensus pick and will likely get support from moderate Democrats in the Senate. Kasich said that he was "proud to nominate not a Republican or Democrat, but an American" to the Supreme Court. Vice President Hagan voiced support for Lowy but said his stances on abortion and women's rights do concern her. If his vote does come to a tie in the Senate, Hagan could be an interesting swing vote.

May 24th, 2021: GOP Unveils Tax Plan


Senate Majority Leader John Cornyn and Speaker Paul Ryan have unveiled the GOP Tax Plan Bill. The bill is called the "An American Tax Plan for All" and gives significant tax breaks to the middle class. President Kasich praised the bill, saying "I can't wait for it to pass". Democrats are already finding issues with it, saying it's too lenient on big business and citing that also gives tax breaks to the very wealthy as well as the middle class. Senator Bernie Sanders(I-VT) said, "It gives too much to the wealthy. Let's work to give the struggling middle class a break". However, most Democrats are silent on the bill, signally a willingness to look it over and potentially vote "yes".

May 30th, 2021: Lowy Confirmed by Senate


Associate Justice David Lowy of the Massachusetts Superior Court has been confirmed by the Senate today, with 82 "yeas" and 18 "nays". Only Democrats voted "no" with all Republicans and most Democrats voting to confirm Lowy to the Supreme Court. Lowy was then sworn later today and is now officially part of the SCOTUS bench. Lowy's confirmation does not change the Supreme Court's ideological tilt, with 5 liberal justices and 4 conservatives. This is also the youngest Supreme Court in decades, with the oldest justice being Lawrence Thomas at 73 years old. This, barring unforeseen occurrences, might be President Kasich's only Supreme Court pick. 

June 6th, 2021: Ryan Announces Major House Majority Push in 2022


House Minotiry Leader Tim Ryan announced today that Democrats will push hard to a House majority in 2022, after 10 years of minority status in the lower chamber. Ryan is a relatively new party leader and knows that he will soon face a challenge to his position as Minority Leader if he doesn't lead the Democrats to vistory soon. Joe Crowley, the Chair of the House Democratic Caucus, is reportedly considering a challenge to Ryan and reports show that Ryan is becoming very unpopular amongst House Democrats, seen as out-of-his-league and weak compared to Speaker Paul Ryan. Crowley would most likely get establishment Democrats to back his bid and may even successfully oust Ryan if they don't gain the majority in the House soon.

Kasich Approval Rating:
Approve: 63%
Disapprove: 34%

[America Needs R'hllor]

Hagan 2024!

[Kwal]

Hagan 20248!

[MycroftCZ]

June 10th, 2021: Shelby Announces Retirement


Alabama Republican Senator Richard Shelby announced today that he will not seek reelection in 2022, opening up a Senate seat in a blood-red state. Shelby has represented Alabama since 1987, originally elected as a Democrat and then changed party registration in 1994. Senator Shelby is 87 years old and is the oldest Republican serving in the Senate right now. Many prominent Republicans are eyeing the seat, most notably Governor Kay Ivey. Ivey was easily reelected in 2018 and has remained popular in the state during her tenure. This is the first Senate retirement of the 2022 midterms.

June 19th, 2021: Tax Plan Faces GOP Opposition in House


Today, 11 House Republicans signed a letter saying they will not support the GOP Tax Plan Bill when it comes up for a vote. Most are moderate Republicans in swing districts, who worry that supporting this bill will hurt their re-election chances, especially with the Democrats launching an aggressive campaign to take back the House. Speaker Ryan said today that he is still "confident" that the bill will pass and expressed optimism that some Democrats will vote for the bill. So far, no Democrats have announced support. In the Senate, the GOP expects Democrats from red states to come on board with the bill and do not see any Republicans as likely to jump ship.

June 28th, 2021: Beshear Announces Kentucky Senate Campaign


The former Democratic Governor of Kentucky is jumping into the race for Senate, taking on one of the most well-known Republicans in the country. Governor Steve Beshear, the Democrat, left office in 2015 and is still popular in the state. Beshear will challenge Sen. Rand Paul, the libertarian firebrand who is not afraid to buck his own party on a regular basis. Beshear says that he was "convinced" to run for Senate by Joe Manchin's CSDC. The Common Sense Democrats Campaign is busy recruiting well-known moderate Democrats to run for office in the South, hoping to moderate the Democratic party and stop it from moving too far left. This Kentucky Senate seat will most likely become one of the most closely watched races in the country, with millions likely to pour into the state on behalf of both candidates.

July 2nd, 2021: Kasich Signs DACA Expansion


President Kasich today signed an Executive Order than expands DACA or Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals. DACA gives protection to children that cross the border illegally and grants a path to citizenship to these kids. Kasich said that DACA "does a lot of good" and that "ripping families apart is un-American". Kasich is also expected to sign an EC than increases border security and gives more funding to the Border Patrol. This is a big sign that Kasich will likely step to the middle and then to the right on most issues, pleasing moderates and the GOP base at the same time. Expanding DACA and protecting the border are things that the President says "just make common sense".

Kasich Approval Rating:
Approve: 64%
Disapprove: 33%