Norwegian Election

[Jens]

In case your local media has failed to report it, there is a election to the Norwegian Storting (Grand Diet) this monday and the outcome is very unsure. During the last months it has looked like the centre-left coalition led by Arbeiderpartiet (Labour party) was heading toward a solid victory over the current centre-right coalition led by Kjeld Magne Bondevik of  Kristelig Folkeparti (Christian People's Party) but the latest polls doesn't give give any of the grand coalitions a majority in the Storting.

The current situation in Stortinget is this: (From left to right)

Sosialistisk Venstreparti: 23 M
Arbeiderpartiet: 43 M
Senterpartiet: 10 M
Venstre: 2 M
Kristelig Folkeparti: 22 M
Høyre: 38 M
Fremskrittspartiet: 24 M
Others: 1 M

The current government consists of Kristelig Folkeparti, Venstre and Høyre and is a minority government supported by Fremskrittspartiet

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Odd thing is that Labour are still polling fairly well (around about the 30% mark)... the Socialist Left seem to have been collapsing of late (I could be misreading, but they seem to have dropped 7pts in one poll).
Any idea why?

[Jens]

The Parties running in this election are:

Government:
Kristelig Folkeparti (Christian People's Party):
Christian Democratic party that really emerged after WWII. Comes from the very christian parts of Western Norway, but has succeded in gaining votes because of their focus on family values, anti-alcohol and anti-EU. Their original fundamentalist christian views has been toned down a bit, but they still are the only Norwegian party against abortion. The leader of KrF, Kjell Magne Bondevik has been prime minister since 2001

Høyre (Right):
H is a conservative party, one of the two original parties Høyre and Venstre. H has traditionally been the major oppositional party to DNA, but in the later years KrF and Fremskrittspartiet has been serious competators to that title. H is pro-EU

Venstre (Left):
V is a social-liberal party (not like Venstre in Denmark, more simelar to Radikale Venstre) that used to be on of the major parties but has had serious problems passing the 4% treshold since 1973, where the question about EU-membership caused the party to splinter.

Supporting the government:

Fremskrittspartiet (Progress Party):
Fp was founded as a protest against high taxes, bureacracy and EU-membership as Anders Langes Parti (named after the founder Anders Lange) and changed its name to Fp in 1977 (copycat!!) Because of its nature as a protest party the Fp support has been very inconsistant but in the later years the policies (and carismatic behaviour) of the party's leader Carl I. Hagen, presenting themself as supporter of the weak (Norwegian, Fp has a very strong stint of xenofobia) has given the party a very strong position in Norwegian politics and made it the 2nd largest party in 1997.

Opposition:

Det Norske Arbeiderpartiet (Norwegian Labour Party):
DNA has been in power the majority of the time since WWII and had a majority on its own from 1945 to 1961. Their last prime minister was Jens Stoltenberg who also is their candidate this time. Last election following Stoltenbergs government was the worst defeat ever for DNA and their worst election since 1924 giving DNA less than a quarter of the votes and only 43 mandates. DNA is a socialdemocratic party and supports membership of the European Union

Sosialistisk Venstreparti (Socialist Left Party):
SV was founded in 1961 by breakouts from Ap as Sosialistik Folkeparti inspired by the succes of SF in Denmark. In 1973 the party merged with various leftwing groups and created SV. The last election was the best ever for SV, giving the party 12,5 % and 23 mandates. SV is a socialist party and is against membership of the European union

Senterpartiet (Centre Party):
Originally Farmers Party, Senterpartiet is very much the representative of the countryside. The party hold strong positions in Norways many small parishes. The party is centre-liberal with a strong agarian twist and is strongly against membership of the EU. In the early 90'es SP gained many votes on the Anti-EU stance but support has dropped sharply, mainly because of the dying out of the tradition SP base in the countryside. Last election was the worst ever. SP only got 5,6 % and 10 mandates

Rød Valgallianse (Red Electoral Alliance):
Founded as a protest against the grand left wing coalition in 1973, RV has only ever been represented in the Storting from 1993 to 1997. RV is a marxist party

Kystpartiet (Coast Party):
Kp is a regional party representing mainly the fishermen in northern Norway

[Jens]

Odd thing is that Labour are still polling fairly well (around about the 30% mark)... the Socialist Left seem to have been collapsing of late (I could be misreading, but they seem to have dropped 7pts in one poll).
Any idea why?

Lets just call it the illusion of statistics. An extremely exellent poll 17% contra a poll a bit under standard ca 10%, but the election looks very close. I'll post some polls right away

[Jens]

Latest poll from NRK (Norwegian BBC)

Government:

KrF:  8,0% -4,4% 14M - 8M
H:   15,5% -5,7% 27M -11M
V:     6,1% +2,2% 11M +9M

Support:

Fp: 18,1% +3,5% 32M +6M
Kp:   1,9% +0,2%   2M +1M

Opposition:
DNA:28,9% +4,6% 51M +8M
SV:  13,6% +1,2% 23M
Sp:    4,6% -1,0%    8M -2M
RV:    1,6% +0,4%   1M +1M

Total:
Government: 52M -10M
Support:        34M + 7M
Opposition:    83M + 7M

[Bono]

Wow Fremskrittspartiet pwns.

[minionofmidas]

Damn, I'd been hearing the Left were poised to win, but this doesn't look nearly as good.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Interesting that the parties named "Left" and "Right" are in the same coalition.

I didn't realize there was that many fundies in Norway, of course there are fundamentalist Lutheran sects but had I assumed that they had dropped to a very very small fringe in Europe like almost everywhere else.

[Jens]

Interesting that the parties named "Left" and "Right" are in the same coalition.

Take a look at my thread about the Danish election. The names derive from their physical position in parliament, not from any political stance. Venstre (Left) in Norway is a social-liberal party and are quite similar to Radikale Venstre in Denmark (translate Radical Left, but the party is neither Radical nor Left)

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We have these traditional christian areas in both the western parts of Denmark and Norway. They are based around the fishermen who fish in the ruff enviroment on the North Sea. These days they basically are christian democrats and nothing like extreme christian fundamentalist.

[ag]

Early projections

Elections committee at 22:08 local time

Labor (A) - 59 (+16)
Sociallist Left (SV) - 15 (-8)
Center (SP) - 11 (+1)
Total for opposition - 85 (+9), simple majority (barely) of 169

Right (H) - 24 (-14)
Left (V) - 10 (+8)
Christian Democrats (KRF) - 12 (-10)
Total for gov't - 46 (-16)

Progress (FRP) - 38 (+12)
(supporting the outgoing government from ouside the coalition)

Others - 0 (-1)


Dagbladet newspaper at 22:09 local time:

Total 433 communes
Somer returns from 384
Full returns from 101
20.5% of the vote counted

Labor (A) - 60 (+17)
Sociallist Left (SV) - 15 (-8)
Center (SP) - 11 (+1)
Total for opposition - 86(+10), simple majority (with a seat to spare) of 169

Right (H) - 24 (-14)
Left (V) - 10 (+8)
Christian Democrats (KRF) - 12 (-10)
Total for gov't - 46 (-16)

Progress (FRP) - 37 (+11)
(supporting the outgoing government from ouside the coalition)

Others - 0 (-1)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now that's close... a much improved showing for Labour (albeit from their worst election since the '20's, although IIRC the electoral system was different back then) even if the proposed left coalition fails to get majority. Good showings for "Left" and and the "Progress" Party as well.

[Huckleberry Finn]

Interesting that the parties named "Left" and "Right" are in the same coalition.

I didn't realize there was that many fundies in Norway, of course there are fundamentalist Lutheran sects but had I assumed that they had dropped to a very very small fringe in Europe like almost everywhere else.

At least 5 percent of Finnish people are fundamentalist Christians. Part of them vote for Christian Democrats but many also for Centre party and few for Conservatives and NONE leftist parties. National Coalition (Conservatives) are in fact fairly libertarian kind, urban and well-educated. Definitely most right-winder economically.

Oh God I hate Norwegian Socialist Left Party.

Why?

Because....

1) "USA is worst threat to world peace"

2) "Privatized public corporation should be taken back to the government ownership"

What decade these people live?

[ag]

Elections committee at 22:46 local time (70.7% of the vote counted)

Labor (A) - 61 (+18)
Sociallist Left (SV) - 15 (-8)
Center (SP) - 11 (+1)
Total for opposition - 87(+129), simple majority of 169

Right (H) - 23 (-15)
Left (V) - 10 (+8)
Christian Democrats (KRF) - 12 (-10)
Total for gov't - 45 (-17)

Progress (FRP) - 37 (+11)
(supporting the outgoing government from ouside the coalition)

Others - 0 (-1)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NRK is reporting (as of 23: 42 local time) the total possible left coalition with 88 seats

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Great little interactive map of the results: http://www7.nrk.no/nyheter/Valg05/valresultat/

[ag]

Elections committee at 00:24 local time (95.2% of the vote)

Labor (A) - 62 (+19)
Sociallist Left (SV) - 15 (-8)
Center (SP) - 11 (+1)
Total for opposition - 88 (+12), majority of 169

Right (H) - 23 (-15)
Left (V) - 10 (+8)
Christian Democrats (KRF) - 11 (-11)
Total for gov't - 44 (-18)

Progress (FRP) - 37 (+11)
(supporting the outgoing government from ouside the coalition)

Others - 0 (-1)

Looks like that's it - less than 5 percent of the vote outstanding is not likely changing the left victory.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why'd the support for the Christian Dems split in half?

[Frodo]

With 96% of the vote counted, the Center-Left appears to have made a comeback:

Early results give Norway opposition a win

By DOUG MELLGREN
Associated Press Writer

OSLO, Norway — Norway was poised for a power shift after the left-leaning opposition won a majority of seats in Parliament with pledges to spend more of the nation's vast oil wealth on welfare, official election results showed early Tuesday.

With more than 96 percent of votes counted, a three-party coalition led by the Labor party had grabbed 88 seats in the 169-seat assembly, enough to oust the center-right government.

source

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

good news after the awful results in Japan yesterday

[Jens]

Why'd the support for the Christian Dems split in half?

mainly fatigue, the last two elections where the best ever for KrF. This election has given them their "traditional" share of the votes and generally this election was about why the world's richest and best country (Norwegians arn't modest) still has very poor people, local level budget problems and worn down schools ect.

[Jens]

With 99,08% counted the Storting looks like this;

Ap: 32,8% +8,5% 61M +18M
SV:   8,7%  -3,8% 15M  -  8M
SP:   6,5% +1,0% 11M  + 1M

KrF:  6,8% -5,6%  11M  -11M
V:     5,9% +2,0% 10M  + 8M
H:   14,1% -7,1%  24M  -14M

FrP: 22,1%+7,4% 37M  -11M

RV:    1,2% +0,0%  0M   +0M
KP:    0,8% - 0,9%  0M    -1M

The only way a Ap-SV-SP government can fail now is in the negociation room. Bondevik has resigned and there is no way SP is going to join a government supported by Fremskrittspartiet

[TB]

With 99,08% counted the Storting looks like this;

Ap: 32,8% +8,5% 61M +18M
SV:   8,7%  -3,8% 15M  -  8M
SP:   6,5% +1,0% 11M  + 1M

KrF:  6,8% -5,6%  11M  -11M
V:     5,9% +2,0% 10M  + 8M
H:   14,1% -7,1%  24M  -14M

FrP: 22,1%+7,4% 37M  -11M

RV:    1,2% +0,0%  0M   +0M
KP:    0,8% - 0,9%  0M    -1M

The only way a Ap-SV-SP government can fail now is in the negociation room. Bondevik has resigned and there is no way SP is going to join a government supported by Fremskrittspartiet

First of all a very interesting election, the Social Democrats and Labor parties in Europe have performed poor for some years in some of the traditionally strongly Social Democratic countries like Denmark, Norway, Holland, and both the Labor Party and The SPD have gone through some rough changes before Blair came to power in the UK and Schroeder came to power in Germany. It seems like the old working class parties have had to re-establish them selves in societies without a large working class. In Holland they have followed Giddens theories, in other words the Dutch Social Democrats have moved to the right just like their sister parties in Germany, The UK, and Denmark have done, but in Norway they have moved the other direction after Stoltenberg tried to drag the Norwegian Labor Party towards the center last election. This might also be indicating a new trend. Schroeder seems to be talking about more traditional Social Democratic values although he is still one of the most pragmatic leaders in Europe. The Danish Social Democrats seems to be in trouble as well with their new more centrist profile, so this trend we have seen tonight in Norway might be the first indication of another form of modern Social Democratic parties. 

[M]

Will the new govt try to lead Norway into the EU?

[TB]

Will the new govt try to lead Norway into the EU?

No, that is highly unlikely. Two of the three governing parties are against membership of the EU, the SV and the SP. The Ap would not soot themselves in the foot unless the had a majority in the Grand Diet, which they don't and even then the party it self remains split on the issue.

[jimrtex]

Great little interactive map of the results: http://www7.nrk.no/nyheter/Valg05/valresultat/

It is interesting that some parties have very localized support in some communes (30+% where they are under 10).  For example the Centre Party in some areas on the west coast.

What is Kystparteit?  0.8% nation wide, 8.3% Troms County, 36.4% Karlsoy commune.  This is on the Arctic Coast, north of the Sweden-Finland border.  Is this a Lapp party?