Russian Presidential Election, 2018

[jaichind]

Chechnya turnout is "only" 79%.  I would have expected around 95% turnout and around 99% vote for Putin.  It seems Kadyrov is off his game.

Maybe he forgot to count all of the people in his concentration camps.

So far Putin support in Chechnya is 89%.  A disastrous showing for Putin.  He should be at least 98% here.

[jaichind]

Looks like this time around Putin's weakest area is the Russian Far East.

[Frodo]

Russia will only see real change once Putin dies.  And unlike average Russian males, I can easily see him living another couple of decades (he's already 65, the age men usually die over there).

[jaichind]

Russia will only see real change once Putin dies.  And unlike average Russian males, I can easily see him living another couple of decades (he's already 65, the age men usually die over there).

Actually Russian life expectancy has surged under Putin.

[Frodo]

Russia will only see real change once Putin dies.  And unlike average Russian males, I can easily see him living another couple of decades (he's already 65, the age men usually die over there).

Actually Russian life expectancy has surged under Putin.

I was talking about Russian men specifically.  Everyone knows women live longer than men, and that raises the numbers up a bit. 

[Frodo]

Russia will only see real change once Putin dies.  And unlike average Russian males, I can easily see him living another couple of decades (he's already 65, the age men usually die over there).

Russia Watching is hardly my field of expertise, but I don't see any reason to believe this is the case. If anything his successor will be even more of a jingoistic psychopath.

Doubtful.  Leonid Brezhnev's death resulted in three elderly leaders who died in quick succession of each other before Mikhael Gorbachev took over.    

[DC Al Fine]

Dumb question: If Yavlinsky isn't "controlled opposition", why is he allowed to run?

[Crumpets]

Dumb question: If Yavlinsky isn't "controlled opposition", why is he allowed to run?

This is just a guess, but I suspect it's because Yavlinsky is a known entity, and Putin doesn't see him or his politics as an existential threat. Even when elections in Russia were more fair than they are now, Yavlinsky never did well because, while his opinions resonate with a lot of people in the west, "Being more western" has never really been a winning position in Russia.

Meanwhile, Navalny has put western liberalism aside, and focuses his attacks on Putin's corruption and kleptomania. Those points are much harder to brush aside than simply calling him a Western lackey like he can do with Yavlinsky. Putin knows that having Yavlinsky in the news gives him just another person to attack. Having Navalny in the news is something that makes Putin a little more hesitant to draw attention to the matter.

[Crumpets]

Chechnya turnout is "only" 79%.  I would have expected around 95% turnout and around 99% vote for Putin.  It seems Kadyrov is off his game.

Maybe he forgot to count all of the people in his concentration camps.

So far Putin support in Chechnya is 89%.  A disastrous showing for Putin.  He should be at least 98% here.

Where are you getting regional results?

[Meeker]

Voter turnout is suddenly at 67.00%, a couple points higher than 2012. How about that.

[jaichind]

So far Putin support in Chechnya is 89%.  A disastrous showing for Putin.  He should be at least 98% here.

Where are you getting regional results?

https://sputniknews.com/russia-elections-2018/201803161062517712-russian-presidential-election/

[Crumpets]

So far Putin support in Chechnya is 89%.  A disastrous showing for Putin.  He should be at least 98% here.

Where are you getting regional results?

https://sputniknews.com/russia-elections-2018/201803161062517712-russian-presidential-election/

How the heck did Yavlinsky manage to have his third best region after Moscow and St. Petersburg be Ingushetia? He did way better there than anywhere in the Caucasus, even. Sobchak also had it as her best region in the Caucasus. That just seems so... random. Is there some EU-backed movement to give Ingushetia more autonomy, or something?

[MAINEiac4434]

An election worker in Russia obscures the security camera right before they started counting.

https://i.imgur.com/0kAk9QY.gifv

[Zuza]

Titov also has his best result in Ingushetia (even better than in Moscow or St. Petersburg). And Zhirinovsky got by order of magnitude more votes there than in Chechnya and Dagestan. I'm not aware of any candidate bringing up the issue of Ingushetia autonomy or anything else related to Ingushetia. I think the numbers for Ingushetia are entirely made up.

[jaichind]

Voter turnout is suddenly at 67.00%, a couple points higher than 2012. How about that.

According to

http://www.vybory.izbirkom.ru/region/region/izbirkom?action=show&root=1&tvd=100100084849066&vrn=100100084849062&region=0&global=1&sub_region=0&prver=0&pronetvd=null&vibid=100100084849066&type=226

Putin already has 55.2 million votes.  In which case turnout is likely to be something like 67%

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Titov also has his best result in Ingushetia (even better than in Moscow or St. Petersburg). And Zhirinovsky got by order of magnitude more votes there than in Chechnya and Dagestan. I'm not aware of any candidate bringing up the issue of Ingushetia autonomy or anything else related to Ingushetia. I think the numbers for Ingushetia are entirely made up.

Baburin and Sobchak also got relatively high numbers in Ingushetia

[jaichind]

It seems that Putin 2018 has broken Medvedev 2008 record of 52.5 million votes for the most number of votes in a Russian Federation Presidential election. 

[Crumpets]

Here's a preliminary map of the change in Putin's % of the vote between 2012 and 2018. Some things stand out, such as Mordovia, which was one of Putin's best areas in both 2012 and 2018, but where the anti-Putin vote got something of a dead cat bounce, even while all nearby areas swung strongly to Putin. Putin also clearly cleaned up among the old "Red belt" voters in places like Belgorod, Kursk, and Oryol. Not good news for the communists.

[henster]

I wonder what the voter turnout is without the ballot stuffing, probably around 30-40%.

[Zuza]

Exit poll reveals that Sobchak has by far the youngest voters, while Putin and Yavlinsky the oldest ones (this is not surprising since the difference between Yavlinsky and Sobchak is mostly generational rather than ideological; Sobchak probably also got many not ideologically motivated votes from young women who know her as a socialite). According to these calculations based on the aforementioned exit poll, Sobchak polled 9.3 % among voters aged 18-24 and only 0.8 % among 60+.

Putin and Sobchak are the only candidates who have more female than male supporters, and this gender gap is significant. This is interesting, since, according to the poll I've seen once, outside of Russia Putin was more popular among males (in all the countries polled). One of the possible explanations is that outside of Russia he is typically viewed as a hyper-masculine bear-riding macho man, while the bulk of his voters are actually middle-aged and elderly people who have relatively little interest in politics, often don't care much whether Russia is "stronk" or not, but remember very well the economic collapse, instability and spiraling crime rate of 90s, praise Putin for saving Russia from this and are scared that something similar to 90s can happen again.

The youngest generation of Russians was more supportive of Putin in 00s, during the economic recovery, but many observers noticed that attendees of anti-government meetings became much younger in the recent years.

[TheSaint250]

Question for the Russian posters: who did you vote for?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Gotta love the Tuvans for not being subtle at all. Over 90% turnout and over 90% Putin. There were also a couple federal subjects in the Caucasus that way, but it seems random that Tuva would be that blatant.

[smoltchanov]

Question for the Russian posters: who did you vote for?

Yavlinsky. Though i understood fairly well, that everything was much more predetermined, then in 2012, when Prokhorov was rather serious candidate (especially - in capitals)

[smoltchanov]

Gotta love the Tuvans for not being subtle at all. Over 90% turnout and over 90% Putin. There were also a couple federal subjects in the Caucasus that way, but it seems random that Tuva would be that blatant.

For Tuva is's absolutely normal. As well as for some other similar areas...

[jaichind]

Gotta love the Tuvans for not being subtle at all. Over 90% turnout and over 90% Putin. There were also a couple federal subjects in the Caucasus that way, but it seems random that Tuva would be that blatant.

Well, Tuva or Tannu Tuva are majority Tuvans which are a branch of Mongols but speak a Turkic language so it its the ethnic enclave pattern.   Of course I do not recognize Tannu Tuva as being part of Russia.  I insists it is Chinese territory which we call 唐努烏梁海 (Tannu Uriankhai) which the Red Russia stole from us back in 1921 creating a puppet independent government before annexing it into USSR back in 1944.