Russian Presidential Election, 2018

[kelestian]

Russian elections at its best

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sfgdRhx96M

Zhirinovsky quarelled with Baburin during the second debates. Sobchak had tried to teach him good manners, after what Zhirinosky called Ksenia "stupid" and "fool". Next moving was from Sobchak, when she poured water from the glass on him. Finally, Zhirinovsky called Sobchak a "whore".

Incindent is more interesting than it seems: anniversary of Boris Nemtsov's assasination was few days ago. And one of the most famous debates in Russian politics were debates between Nemtsov and Zhirinovsky in 1995, when Zhirinovsky poured glass of juice on his opponent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbifHevHekE

[smoltchanov]

^. It's not an election, it's a farce with predetermined result. As much as i may be critical of some elections in the West, Russian elections (except brief period of 1989-1995 approximately) were always "something"....

[jaichind]

FOM poll

http://fom.ru/Politika/13987

- Putin received support of 64.9% of respondents in March 10-11 poll of 3,000 Russians; FOM says Putin’s projected share of vote in election based on its calculation of likely turnout
- Communist Party candidate Pavel Grudinin seen getting 11%-13%
- LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky may get 7%-9%
- FOM estimates TV host Ksenia Sobchak and Yabloko party co-founderGrigory Yavlinsky to get 1%-2% each
- Boris Titov, of Party of Growth, and Maxim Suraikin, of alternative Communist bloc, to receive less than 1% each

Projects Vladimir Putin seen getting 73%-75% of votes in March 18 presidential election

[Tender Branson]

Please do not post any "polls" from these "pollsters".

The only more or less independent pollster is the Levada Institute and they got censored or virtually banned a while ago by the Putin forces ...

The other "pollsters" only produce numbers that Putin approves of and show him winning easily.

The election will then be modified by the Putin forces in a way that is in line with these made up polls.

[kelestian]

Please do not post any "polls" from these "pollsters".

The only more or less independent pollster is the Levada Institute and they got censored or virtually banned a while ago by the Putin forces ...

The other "pollsters" only produce numbers that Putin approves of and show him winning easily.

The election will then be modified by the Putin forces in a way that is in line with these made up polls.

I disagree. These pollsters had good record, and previously their results didn't differ from Levada's.
In the last Duma electuons, for example, all polsters predicted turnout about 40%, which seems to be true (later turnout increased to 48% because of falsifications).

[Karpatsky]

Please do not post any "polls" from these "pollsters".

The only more or less independent pollster is the Levada Institute and they got censored or virtually banned a while ago by the Putin forces ...

The other "pollsters" only produce numbers that Putin approves of and show him winning easily.

The election will then be modified by the Putin forces in a way that is in line with these made up polls.

Agree in principle, but ironically they still do pretty well what polls are supposed to do: predict elections and act as a benchmark. Obviously there's no point in watching this election as if the outcome isn't sure, but despite everything it's important if Putin gets 65% or 75% of the vote, and for this the polls, fake as they may be, are significant to some extent.

[jaichind]

Please do not post any "polls" from these "pollsters".

The only more or less independent pollster is the Levada Institute and they got censored or virtually banned a while ago by the Putin forces ...

The other "pollsters" only produce numbers that Putin approves of and show him winning easily.

The election will then be modified by the Putin forces in a way that is in line with these made up polls.

Well, all things equal while one can say Russian elections are skewed in favor of Putin and cronies, that seems to be more about total domination of the media.  There are some remote regions where the governor just manufactures votes but all things equal it seems the most of the Putin vote are mostly honestly cast for him.  Just because the system is rigged does not mean Putin does not enjoy real popular support even if that is exaggerated by the media the an election system which makes it hard for a real alternative to emerge.  In that sense polling in Russia is relevant even if Putin is destined to win by a large margin.

[Karpatsky]

Please do not post any "polls" from these "pollsters".

The only more or less independent pollster is the Levada Institute and they got censored or virtually banned a while ago by the Putin forces ...

The other "pollsters" only produce numbers that Putin approves of and show him winning easily.

The election will then be modified by the Putin forces in a way that is in line with these made up polls.

Well, all things equal while one can say Russian elections are skewed in favor of Putin and cronies, that seems to be more about total domination of the media.  There are some remote regions where the governor just manufactures votes but all things equal it seems the most of the Putin vote are mostly honestly cast for him.  Just because the system is rigged does not mean Putin does not enjoy real popular support even if that is exaggerated by the media the an election system which makes it hard for a real alternative to emerge.  In that sense polling in Russia is relevant even if Putin is destined to win by a large margin.

Eh, yes and no. State control of the the media is serious factor, but there is also evidence of serious vote manipulation, perhaps heavily influencing outcome; eg:

[Zuza]

Please do not post any "polls" from these "pollsters".

The only more or less independent pollster is the Levada Institute and they got censored or virtually banned a while ago by the Putin forces ...

The other "pollsters" only produce numbers that Putin approves of and show him winning easily.

The election will then be modified by the Putin forces in a way that is in line with these made up polls.

I disagree. These pollsters had good record, and previously their results didn't differ from Levada's.
In the last Duma electuons, for example, all polsters predicted turnout about 40%, which seems to be true (later turnout increased to 48% because of falsifications).

This. Their results are also similar to that of Navalny's FBK (FBK polls show higher percentage of undecideds, while proportions between candidates are roughly the same).

[jaichind]

Eh, yes and no. State control of the the media is serious factor, but there is also evidence of serious vote manipulation, perhaps heavily influencing outcome; eg:

Sure.  I totally agree that in some various ethnic enclaves where the governor is pretty much the local King (like Chechnya, Dagestan,  Ingushetia, Karachay-Cherkessia, Tuva [which I claim as part of China anyway] etc etc) the votes are manufactured for Putin.  But they make up of a fairly small part of the overall Russian Federation vote.  There seems very little doubt in my mind  that even if we take out these manufactured votes for Putin there is still a solid (although reduced) majority for Putin.

[smoltchanov]

Eh, yes and no. State control of the the media is serious factor, but there is also evidence of serious vote manipulation, perhaps heavily influencing outcome; eg:

Sure.  I totally agree that in some various ethnic enclaves where the governor is pretty much the local King (like Chechnya, Dagestan,  Ingushetia, Karachay-Cherkessia, Tuva [which I claim as part of China anyway] etc etc) the votes are manufactured for Putin.  But they make up of a fairly small part of the overall Russian Federation vote.  There seems very little doubt in my mind  that even if we take out these manufactured votes for Putin there is still a solid (although reduced) majority for Putin.

Of course. I stopped to watch major Russian TV channels few years ago. You see Putin, Putin, more Putin, and, rarely, Medvedev on them.... That's, essentially, all. Even good career diplomat Lavrov is now a little more then puppet.

[Former President tack50]

Eh, yes and no. State control of the the media is serious factor, but there is also evidence of serious vote manipulation, perhaps heavily influencing outcome; eg:

Sure.  I totally agree that in some various ethnic enclaves where the governor is pretty much the local King (like Chechnya, Dagestan,  Ingushetia, Karachay-Cherkessia, Tuva [which I claim as part of China anyway] etc etc) the votes are manufactured for Putin.  But they make up of a fairly small part of the overall Russian Federation vote.  There seems very little doubt in my mind  that even if we take out these manufactured votes for Putin there is still a solid (although reduced) majority for Putin.

Yup, I'm pretty sure that even if the election was 100% clean Putin would still win. He might have to go to a second round (like Yeltin in 1996) but he would easily win.

[jaichind]

Of course. I stopped to watch major Russian TV channels few years ago. You see Putin, Putin, more Putin, and, rarely, Medvedev on them.... That's, essentially, all. Even good career diplomat Lavrov is now a little more then puppet.

I always liked the annual 4 hour marathon press conference Putin does at the end of the year although in the 2017 one he did not do that well.  I think Putin's polices are bad on the long run (he pretty much wasted the extra wealth Russia got from the commodities boom) but you have to admit that he does a good job selling what he is doing and there is real support for him in Russia.

[smoltchanov]

Of course. I stopped to watch major Russian TV channels few years ago. You see Putin, Putin, more Putin, and, rarely, Medvedev on them.... That's, essentially, all. Even good career diplomat Lavrov is now a little more then puppet.

I always liked the annual 4 hour marathon press conference Putin does at the end of the year although in the 2017 one he did not do that well.  I think Putin's polices are bad on the long run (he pretty much wasted the extra wealth Russia got from the commodities boom) but you have to admit that he does a good job selling what he is doing and there is real support for him in Russia.

Of course. When you destroyed all potential opponents during previous almost 20 years, and managed to arrive to situation, when even your opponents have difficulties - whom to vote for (because there is no one in sight, literally), when you are on all mass-media at any time and for any time interval you like, when you manged to arose many's "hyperpatriotic" feeleings to the level of hysteria (as it was with "Crimea is ours!"), and thus - force them to forget about economic hardships, "soft" political isolation, and so on - you will win the election handily! I am more surprised, that there are still 15-20% of Russian people, who are consistently anti-Putin (not all of them are Western-type democrats), then by his percentages in Russian polls. German leader in 1930's had even higher one, despite all German long (substantially longer, then in Russia) political tradition, and perceived pragmatism of Germans.  Put a lot of consistent propaganda on TV and in people's mind daily for 10 years, and 75% of population will be "your loyal soldiers". We see that in China, in Russia, and even in Hungary and some other "democratic countries".. Nothing unusual. And nothing new...

[Strudelcutie4427]

Еще шесть лет Президент Путин

[smoltchanov]

Еще шесть лет Президент Путин

If his health allows... Yesterday i was at Yavlinsky headquaters in Moscow, and was unplesantly surprised by extremely bad level of organization...

[Karpatsky]

Еще шесть лет Президент Путин

If his health allows... Yesterday i was at Yavlinsky headquaters in Moscow, and was unplesantly surprised by extremely bad level of organization...
[/quote

Well, what reason does he have to try hard, really.

[smoltchanov]

Еще шесть лет Президент Путин

If his health allows... Yesterday i was at Yavlinsky headquaters in Moscow, and was unplesantly surprised by extremely bad level of organization...
[/quote

Well, what reason does he have to try hard, really.

Still - good organization is a precondition for being good candidate.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Question for the Russian posters- if Navalny was allowed to be on the ballot this time, what percent of the vote do you think he would've gotten? Would he reach 2nd place?

[kelestian]

Question for the Russian posters- if Navalny was allowed to be on the ballot this time, what percent of the vote do you think he would've gotten? Would he reach 2nd place?

About 5%, i think. He wouldn't beat Communist candidate, especially Grudinin (Grudinin is quite strong). Navalny's base would be pro-Western liberals + youth, also base of Sobchak and Yavlinsky. He probably would perform well in big cities, maybe about 15-20% in Moscow and St.Petersburg.


By the way, i spoke with relatives and neighbors, for my surprise, they are very exciting about this elections. They don't believe it's just Putin's reelection, i've even heard a very loud argument about who's better - Putin or Grudinin.

[smoltchanov]

Question for the Russian posters- if Navalny was allowed to be on the ballot this time, what percent of the vote do you think he would've gotten? Would he reach 2nd place?

About 10% i think. Theoretically, his populist base could give him even 20, but - not with present set of candidates..

[jaichind]

I like Titov the most but would tactically vote Putin.

[Karpatsky]

I like Titov the most but would tactically vote Putin.

What's the point of tactically voting Putin?

[jaichind]

I like Titov the most but would tactically vote Putin.

What's the point of tactically voting Putin?

I have reasons to dislike all the other non-Titov candidates more than Putin.  Of course Putin does not need my vote.  I am more imagining how I would act if this were a competitive election.

[Crumpets]

Yavlinsky, to answer the poll.

On another topic, this is a map I made of a hypothetical more equal 2012 election, which pretty much just measures where parties over-performed the most (essentially a PVI map). I'm curious what changes we might see, especially since A Just Russia won't be participating, and I know Atlas likes to dispute whether their voters are actually anti-Putin or not.



United Russia
Communist Party
LDPR
A Just Russia
Prokhorov (Independent)