2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Glad to see Joe Manchin get a sex change and run in Ohio as a Green

[Blackacre]

Monmoth are the real FFs.

I wonder if we can get them to poll Montana-Senate next

[IceSpear]

Monmoth are the real FFs.

I wonder if we can get them to poll Montana-Senate next

Why bother? Even Vermont is more competitive.

[Blackacre]

Monmoth are the real FFs.

I wonder if we can get them to poll Montana-Senate next

Why bother? Even Vermont is more competitive.

We've had polls of Virginia, New York, California, Washington State, and Michigan. Is a Montana poll too much to ask, even if the premise of your argument was true? (which I dont think it is)

[ON Progressive]

Monmoth are the real FFs.

I wonder if we can get them to poll Montana-Senate next

Why poll the race of Titanium Tester? It would just be a waste of time. What's next? Polling NV with Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmoth are the real FFs.

I wonder if we can get them to poll Montana-Senate next

Why poll the race of Titanium Tester? It would just be a waste of time. What's next? Polling NV with Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller?

"Titanium Tester" sounds like a superhero from a low-budget cartoon.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Democrats have a 24-point lead amongst College Educated Whites in the NBC poll...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Also more numbers from the NBC poll-

Trump's war on the FBI is not paying off. The Bureau gets a +32 favorable rating.

Mueller has a +11 favorable rating

50% say they have reservations/are uncomfortable with a candidate being endorsed by Donald Trump. Only 29% say the opposite.

55% say they have reservations/are uncomfortable with a candidate  that supports building a wall on the southern border.

51% Say they have reservations/are uncomfortable with a candidate that supports Trump's tariffs.  Only 27% say they are comfortable/enthusiastic with a candidate who supports them.

67% say that the country would be better off if we had more women in political office. This is good for the women in the Democratic Party.

[Landslide Lyndon]

67% say that the country would be better off if we had more women in political office. This is good for the women in the Democratic Party.

And then go to the voting booth and pull the lever for a sexual predator.
What a bunch of effing hypocrites.

[KingSweden]

IN-03: A Banks internal has him up 20 points, 55-34, over Courtney Tritch in a seat nobody views as particularly competitive. Good number, though under his expected baseline in such a Republican seat.

The bigger news is that Donnelly only trails here by 8, 50-42, in a district he lost by 12 against
Mourdock.

Bear in mind this is a House race internal.


https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gop-poll-donnelly-in-position-to-win-in-indiana

[Person Man]

IN-03: A Banks internal has him up 20 points, 55-34, over Courtney Tritch in a seat nobody views as particularly competitive. Good number, though under his expected baseline in such a Republican seat.

The bigger news is that Donnelly only trails here by 8, 50-42, in a district he lost by 12 against
Mourdock.

Bear in mind this is a House race internal.


https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gop-poll-donnelly-in-position-to-win-in-indiana

If Democrats are up in the high single digits, Donnelly will probably be fine.

[Tender Branson]

Next Monmouth house district poll will be the OH-12 special election:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1005106649605070849

... last special election before November.

What about TX-27 in a few weeks ?

[Devout Centrist]

Next Monmouth house district poll will be the OH-12 special election:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1005106649605070849

... last special election before November.

What about TX-27 in a few weeks ?

It’s the last chronologically; it’s in August

[Tender Branson]

Next Monmouth house district poll will be the OH-12 special election:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1005106649605070849

... last special election before November.

What about TX-27 in a few weeks ?

It’s the last chronologically; it’s in August

That doesn't make any sense either: the TX-27 runoff is in September and it's likely because there's a crowded field.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos tracker (5-day rolling), June 3-7, 1322 registered voters

D 43 (+2)
R 34 (-1)

The 538 average is now D+8.2, which is the largest gap since April.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Ipsos tracker (5-day rolling), June 3-7, 1322 registered voters

D 43 (+2)
R 34 (-1)

The 538 average is now D+8.2, which is the largest gap since April.

What reuters giveth, reuters taketh away just as quickly.

[IceSpear]

Crickets from all the concern trolls and conservative pundits now, lol.

[Virginiá]

Crickets from all the concern trolls and conservative pundits now, lol.

To be fair, it did seem like it took a couple months for the "Democrats in decline" narrative to get moving full steam, at least if you consider the decline in the Democratic polling advantage to start a bit after new years. The problem for these people is that by the time they decided to go all-in on the anti-wave narrative, the polling shifted decidedly against their narrative. I wouldn't expect to hear much else for a couple more months, but I bet they'll be quick to seek validation if the polling turns their way again within the next 30 days.

Also, it's not surprising that some people are eager to step on predictions that Democrats might actually do well in an election for once. Pretty much every election (besides 2012 I guess) since 2008 has sucked for Democrats, often bigly, so a lot of people have been operating under the assumption that Republicans will always win everything, even when almost every sign indicates the opposite. This is doubly so for the LimoLiberal's of the world, who are young enough where they can't remember a time where Republicans didn't completely clean up in a midterm.

[Devout Centrist]

The hot takes will start anew in July and August; remember back in 2010, Democratic operatives were talking about a comeback as late as September.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The hot takes will start anew in July and August; remember back in 2010, Democratic operatives were talking about a comeback as late as September.

Too many people want to indulge in thinking that something they want to happen is in fact the thing certain or extremely likely to happen. Reality is that we don't know right now.

[mencken]

Crickets from all the concern trolls and conservative pundits now, lol.

The new evidence does suggest movement toward the Dems. However, I thought GCB didn't matter, since all we have to do is average special elections and that's better than taking surveys?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Crickets from all the concern trolls and conservative pundits now, lol.

The new evidence does suggest movement toward the Dems. However, I thought GCB didn't matter, since all we have to do is average special elections and that's better than taking surveys?

Combine the two IMO

[Virginiá]

Crickets from all the concern trolls and conservative pundits now, lol.

The new evidence does suggest movement toward the Dems. However, I thought GCB didn't matter, since all we have to do is average special elections and that's better than taking surveys?

Combine the two IMO

Yeah, special elections seem like reasonable indicators when you have a lot of them, and combined with the GCB + other more indirect factors like fundraising, recruitment, party that controls the WH, they are useful for indicating potential.

-

To mencken's post - Republicans were leaning heavily on the GCB to back their anti-Dem wave claims, so it stands to reason that once the GCB swings against them again, their narrative falls apart.

For us Democrats who have argued a wave is coming based on numerous factors, such as special elections, the GCB, and the stuff I mentioned above, this is just one more reason for us to stand by our predictions.

[Bidenworth2020]

Crickets from all the concern trolls and conservative pundits now, lol.

The new evidence does suggest movement toward the Dems. However, I thought GCB didn't matter, since all we have to do is average special elections and that's better than taking surveys?

specials do matter more, but no one ever said it "didn't matter" (maybe RCP doesn't). It is one of many data points, albeit a less important one.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Crickets from all the concern trolls and conservative pundits now, lol.

The new evidence does suggest movement toward the Dems. However, I thought GCB didn't matter, since all we have to do is average special elections and that's better than taking surveys?

That's the problem dude. There was never movement away from Dems, or at least as significant as some bad faith commentators like Ruffini and Trende suggested.