2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If the Election Insights poll (D+7) is correct, then Fletcher will win.

D+7 doesn't mean dems get 5 points in every district, if you use common sense. In some districts, dems will do more than 5 points better (e.g Rod Blum & Tenney's district); in others, they will do worse (e.g Carlos Curbelo and Valadao's district)

Dems underperformed in GA-06 because it was a rich suburban district where dems relied on young people. Meanwhile, they won in PA-18 because Conor Lamb was a great fit for the district and it had more dem roots & old people in PA-18 voted for dems.

You really need to use more critical thinking in your posts.

Oh buddy. It's called a prediction. Of course I know that not every race will swing that way. I don't appreciate it when you insult my intelligence.

There is nothing to suggest Fletcher is a weak candidate that will underperform the national swing.

You really need to use your manners when talking to people.

The issue is that this district may not be as dem as Hillary's result. Hillary may have won it by 1.5, but every single other dem has gotten completely blown away in this district. Romney won it by 21, statewide repubs won it by 10+, culberson easily won, etc.

While some GOP areas are rapidly trending dem, you must take into account the overall partisanship of the area. GA-06 ended up trending a bit Republican despite the environment becoming better for dems than 2016 because GA-06 was more Republican than Hillary's result suggested.

I was being rude when talking to you but that's because you really need to snap out of it and stop being such a hack in every single post. It's annoying a lot of people, especially other democrats. You can yell about my tone, or you can consider what I said and try to change.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Hillary only won the district by 1.5, whereas Romney won it by 21. It still has some GOP DNA, even if it is shifting super fast. Dems depend on young voters to win districts like this, and young people will be turning out poorly in this midterm, just as they always do in this midterm.

This is true. If anything, TX-07 doesn't just have GOP DNA, it is *THE* Texas Republican district. It was George H. W. Bush's congressional district. It was the first congressional district that Texas Republicans managed to win in the process of turning Texas from a Dixiecrat state to a Republican sate. So the fact that there is even a chance of it falling now is really an indictment of how far the Republican party has fallen in the places that were formally, from roughly Nixon through Romney, their premier strongholds.

Likewise with TX-32, the Dallas equivalent of TX-07.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If the Election Insights poll (D+7) is correct, then Fletcher will win.

D+7 doesn't mean dems get 5 points in every district, if you use common sense. In some districts, dems will do more than 5 points better (e.g Rod Blum & Tenney's district); in others, they will do worse (e.g Carlos Curbelo and Valadao's district)

Dems underperformed in GA-06 because it was a rich suburban district where dems relied on young people. Meanwhile, they won in PA-18 because Conor Lamb was a great fit for the district and it had more dem roots & old people in PA-18 voted for dems.

You really need to use more critical thinking in your posts.

Oh buddy. It's called a prediction. Of course I know that not every race will swing that way. I don't appreciate it when you insult my intelligence.

There is nothing to suggest Fletcher is a weak candidate that will underperform the national swing.

You really need to use your manners when talking to people.

The issue is that this district may not be as dem as Hillary's result. Hillary may have won it by 1.5, but every single other dem has gotten completely blown away in this district. Romney won it by 21, statewide repubs won it by 10+, culberson easily won, etc.

While some GOP areas are rapidly trending dem, you must take into account the overall partisanship of the area. GA-06 ended up trending a bit Republican despite the environment becoming better for dems than 2016 because GA-06 was more Republican than Hillary's result suggested.

I was being rude when talking to you but that's because you really need to snap out of it and stop being such a hack in every single post. It's annoying a lot of people, especially other democrats. You can yell about my tone, or you can consider what I said and try to change.

I'm not a hack and I don't see anything I should change about myself or how I conduct myself on this forum.

[Devout Centrist]

Culberson has bee elected with reduced majorities since 2010. In 2012, he won by around 22 points. Last year, he won by 13. I only expect Democrats to capture ~11-13 of the districts Clinton won. Trump districts are more fertile than most think.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

[Pericles]

From special elections the swings seem to have been bigger in redder districts, which is both good for Dems-in that more seats than expected are competitive-and bad for them-smaller swings in the places where they actually need to win, and a 5-point R win instead of a 20-point R win is still a win(so there'd need to be the same kind of swing in a more competitive district). So there isn't a single Democratic path to a majority, but may be more picking off lots of different and contrasting seats to get 218+.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We might have a status quo election,  divided GOP majority in both chambers

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

We might have a status quo election,  divided GOP majority in both chambers

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

It's tough, but it is doable. I would rate this race as weak lean R right now, yay my district is finally getting coverage again .

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

IK it aint worth much, but primary turnout here was much closer than TX 7th, with the Dallas county part casting slightly more blue ballots.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

It's tough, but it is doable. I would rate this race as weak lean R right now, yay my district is finally getting coverage again .

IMO, Allred's biggest job is to make this a race, so that the GOP $$ goes towards helping Sessions instead of defending elsewhere. Stretch opposition resources and all that.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

He is not. This is the toughest race he will ever fight to this date by far. Even harder than taking out Frost after redistricting.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

It's tough, but it is doable. I would rate this race as weak lean R right now, yay my district is finally getting coverage again .

IMO, Allred's biggest job is to make this a race, so that the GOP $$ goes towards helping Sessions instead of defending elsewhere. Stretch opposition resources and all that.

It already is a race believe me, Sessions is the favorite, but this is by no means a cakewalk, he will have to fight, and I would not guarantee him victory at this point.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

It's tough, but it is doable. I would rate this race as weak lean R right now, yay my district is finally getting coverage again .

IMO, Allred's biggest job is to make this a race, so that the GOP $$ goes towards helping Sessions instead of defending elsewhere. Stretch opposition resources and all that.

It already is a race believe me, Sessions is the favorite, but this is by no means a cakewalk, he will have to fight, and I would not guarantee him victory at this point.

Yeah, but this is quite inelastic of an area (an area that was electing Republicans in the 1950s), with an incumbent who is a good fit for the seat. We have an A-list recruit but the fact remains that the range of which the final result will lie in is likely narrow. And the vast bulk of that range lies below the vote share needed for Allred to defeat Sessions.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

It's tough, but it is doable. I would rate this race as weak lean R right now, yay my district is finally getting coverage again .

IMO, Allred's biggest job is to make this a race, so that the GOP $$ goes towards helping Sessions instead of defending elsewhere. Stretch opposition resources and all that.

It already is a race believe me, Sessions is the favorite, but this is by no means a cakewalk, he will have to fight, and I would not guarantee him victory at this point.

Yeah, but this is quite inelastic of an area (an area that was electing Republicans in the 1950s), with an incumbent who is a good fit for the seat. We have an A-list recruit but the fact remains that the range of which the final result will lie in is likely narrow. And the vast bulk of that range lies below the vote share needed for Allred to defeat Sessions.

Sessions has a lot of problems here locally, and he won't do much better than liddle Abney. He also does not fit the district as well as you might think. Tx 32nd is not all land rovers and parkies. And from here enthusiasm for Allred is through the roof. This will be close no doubt. The people that are backing Sessions are fairly unenthusiastic and some a little shy about saying so.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The only poll out shows Sessions trailing and one of the only polls out shows Abney winning. IK there are some big factors that show it this way, but Sessions is not as strong as people think, he will most likely have a very underwhelming win with a mid to low single digit mov. Compare that to previous double digit trouncings on all levels nearly all the time.

Things have changed over the past year.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

It's tough, but it is doable. I would rate this race as weak lean R right now, yay my district is finally getting coverage again .

IMO, Allred's biggest job is to make this a race, so that the GOP $$ goes towards helping Sessions instead of defending elsewhere. Stretch opposition resources and all that.

It already is a race believe me, Sessions is the favorite, but this is by no means a cakewalk, he will have to fight, and I would not guarantee him victory at this point.

Yeah, but this is quite inelastic of an area (an area that was electing Republicans in the 1950s), with an incumbent who is a good fit for the seat. We have an A-list recruit but the fact remains that the range of which the final result will lie in is likely narrow. And the vast bulk of that range lies below the vote share needed for Allred to defeat Sessions.

Sessions has a lot of problems here locally, and he won't do much better than liddle Abney. He also does not fit the district as well as you might think. Tx 32nd is not all land rovers and parkies. And from here enthusiasm for Allred is through the roof. This will be close no doubt. The people that are backing Sessions are fairly unenthusiastic and some a little shy about saying so.

TX-32 is Country Club Republican territory.
Pete Sessions is a died-in-the-wool Country Club Republican.
The road to winning this seat is through flipping those Country Club Republicans.
Clinton may have won this seat by 3, but Romney won it by 15. Enthusiasm helps but it's not enough by itself to flip this district.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

It's tough, but it is doable. I would rate this race as weak lean R right now, yay my district is finally getting coverage again .

IMO, Allred's biggest job is to make this a race, so that the GOP $$ goes towards helping Sessions instead of defending elsewhere. Stretch opposition resources and all that.

It already is a race believe me, Sessions is the favorite, but this is by no means a cakewalk, he will have to fight, and I would not guarantee him victory at this point.

Yeah, but this is quite inelastic of an area (an area that was electing Republicans in the 1950s), with an incumbent who is a good fit for the seat. We have an A-list recruit but the fact remains that the range of which the final result will lie in is likely narrow. And the vast bulk of that range lies below the vote share needed for Allred to defeat Sessions.

Sessions has a lot of problems here locally, and he won't do much better than liddle Abney. He also does not fit the district as well as you might think. Tx 32nd is not all land rovers and parkies. And from here enthusiasm for Allred is through the roof. This will be close no doubt. The people that are backing Sessions are fairly unenthusiastic and some a little shy about saying so.

TX-32 is Country Club Republican territory.
Pete Sessions is a died-in-the-wool Country Club Republican.
The road to winning this seat is through flipping those Country Club Republicans.
Clinton may have won this seat by 3, but Romney won it by 15. Enthusiasm helps but it's not enough by itself to flip this district.

This district has a lot of country club Republicans, but it also has tons of Hispanics and Blacks, it is NOT all country club GOPer's by a long way. Pete Sessions is running a competetive race, and he is not much stronger than liddle Abney. He has many local issues with residency and enthusiasm that many voters know about, we need to get the message out there more though. Enthusiasm alone won't win the district on its own, but it is enough to get it to mid to low single digits, which it will be which I am defining as 0-7 pt mov for Sessions.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

It's tough, but it is doable. I would rate this race as weak lean R right now, yay my district is finally getting coverage again .

IMO, Allred's biggest job is to make this a race, so that the GOP $$ goes towards helping Sessions instead of defending elsewhere. Stretch opposition resources and all that.

It already is a race believe me, Sessions is the favorite, but this is by no means a cakewalk, he will have to fight, and I would not guarantee him victory at this point.

Yeah, but this is quite inelastic of an area (an area that was electing Republicans in the 1950s), with an incumbent who is a good fit for the seat. We have an A-list recruit but the fact remains that the range of which the final result will lie in is likely narrow. And the vast bulk of that range lies below the vote share needed for Allred to defeat Sessions.

Sessions has a lot of problems here locally, and he won't do much better than liddle Abney. He also does not fit the district as well as you might think. Tx 32nd is not all land rovers and parkies. And from here enthusiasm for Allred is through the roof. This will be close no doubt. The people that are backing Sessions are fairly unenthusiastic and some a little shy about saying so.

TX-32 is Country Club Republican territory.
Pete Sessions is a died-in-the-wool Country Club Republican.
The road to winning this seat is through flipping those Country Club Republicans.
Clinton may have won this seat by 3, but Romney won it by 15. Enthusiasm helps but it's not enough by itself to flip this district.

This district has a lot of country club Republicans, but it also has tons of Hispanics and Blacks, it is NOT all country club GOPer's by a long way. Pete Sessions is running a competetive race, and he is not much stronger than liddle Abney. He has many local issues with residency and enthusiasm that many voters know about, we need to get the message out there more though. Enthusiasm alone won't win the district on its own, but it is enough to get it to mid to low single digits, which it will be which I am defining as 0-7 pt mov for Sessions.

Hispanic turnout in Texas is terrible. Many cannot vote, and many of those who can vote don't. Black turnout is also quite atrocious.
We can't rely on minority turnout alone to defeat Sessions. Focusing on trying to turnout minorities and neglecting the country club R vote is unlikely to be a successful strategy.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

It's tough, but it is doable. I would rate this race as weak lean R right now, yay my district is finally getting coverage again .

IMO, Allred's biggest job is to make this a race, so that the GOP $$ goes towards helping Sessions instead of defending elsewhere. Stretch opposition resources and all that.

It already is a race believe me, Sessions is the favorite, but this is by no means a cakewalk, he will have to fight, and I would not guarantee him victory at this point.

Yeah, but this is quite inelastic of an area (an area that was electing Republicans in the 1950s), with an incumbent who is a good fit for the seat. We have an A-list recruit but the fact remains that the range of which the final result will lie in is likely narrow. And the vast bulk of that range lies below the vote share needed for Allred to defeat Sessions.

Sessions has a lot of problems here locally, and he won't do much better than liddle Abney. He also does not fit the district as well as you might think. Tx 32nd is not all land rovers and parkies. And from here enthusiasm for Allred is through the roof. This will be close no doubt. The people that are backing Sessions are fairly unenthusiastic and some a little shy about saying so.

TX-32 is Country Club Republican territory.
Pete Sessions is a died-in-the-wool Country Club Republican.
The road to winning this seat is through flipping those Country Club Republicans.
Clinton may have won this seat by 3, but Romney won it by 15. Enthusiasm helps but it's not enough by itself to flip this district.

This district has a lot of country club Republicans, but it also has tons of Hispanics and Blacks, it is NOT all country club GOPer's by a long way. Pete Sessions is running a competetive race, and he is not much stronger than liddle Abney. He has many local issues with residency and enthusiasm that many voters know about, we need to get the message out there more though. Enthusiasm alone won't win the district on its own, but it is enough to get it to mid to low single digits, which it will be which I am defining as 0-7 pt mov for Sessions.

Hispanic turnout in Texas is terrible. Many cannot vote, and many of those who can vote don't. Black turnout is also quite atrocious.
We can't rely on minority turnout alone to defeat Sessions. Focusing on trying to turnout minorities and neglecting the country club R vote is unlikely to be a successful strategy.

Good points, this is also my thoughts on why Sessions will probably survive. I think 2018 fundamentals and several other factors will make this a definite race, but he overall DNA of the district will probably save Sessions. Don't get any feelings that Trump wins this district in 2020 though, because that probably ain't happening lol.

[Jeppe]

If we had a candidate in TX-22 on the same caliber as Lizzie Fletcher, we might’ve had a shot at winning the seat. Oh well, maybe in 2020.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Will Hurd is in deep trouble.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If we had a candidate in TX-22 on the same caliber as Lizzie Fletcher, we might’ve had a shot at winning the seat. Oh well, maybe in 2020.

Democrats might only get to 205 seats, which is their average,  below 200 was below their average