2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[IceSpear]

Bear in mind that most of the tightening in the generic ballot lately has been Rs coming home - in general R numbers are up but D numbers are about the same. This makes sense when you consider that Trump has had a few good weeks, primary season is underway, and Trump has started campaigning a bit. No one ever doubted (well, almost no one doubted) the ability of Rs to get 44-45 percent of the house vote this November. The question is can they get much if any beyond that. If Rs take 46.4-47 percent of the vote it’s hard to see the house as better than a coin flip and it’s virtually impossible to see a senate flip. If they get 44.5 percent then the house flips easily and the senate is a tossup. Obviously it’ll depend where the independents, disaffected Rs, and Obana-Trump voters go to see where in that range are fall.

Ds can be happy as long as they numbers don’t fall below 46-47 percent and R numbers don’t climb beyond 45 in any meaningful average, given how strong independents have broken for them thus far, in my opinion.

Agreed. Dems thinking they were going to win the generic vote by double digits were dreaming anyway. Even in the massive waves of 2008/2010, Obama and the Republicans only won by 7 points. +5 is actually a pretty great spot to be at 6 months before the election, considering the fact that Democrats were actually leading the generic ballot at this point in 2010, which for whatever reason tends to be a historical high point for the incumbent party.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Bear in mind that most of the tightening in the generic ballot lately has been Rs coming home - in general R numbers are up but D numbers are about the same. This makes sense when you consider that Trump has had a few good weeks, primary season is underway, and Trump has started campaigning a bit. No one ever doubted (well, almost no one doubted) the ability of Rs to get 44-45 percent of the house vote this November. The question is can they get much if any beyond that. If Rs take 46.4-47 percent of the vote it’s hard to see the house as better than a coin flip and it’s virtually impossible to see a senate flip. If they get 44.5 percent then the house flips easily and the senate is a tossup. Obviously it’ll depend where the independents, disaffected Rs, and Obana-Trump voters go to see where in that range are fall.

Ds can be happy as long as they numbers don’t fall below 46-47 percent and R numbers don’t climb beyond 45 in any meaningful average, given how strong independents have broken for them thus far, in my opinion.

Agreed. Dems thinking they were going to win the generic vote by double digits were dreaming anyway. Even in the massive waves of 2008/2010, Obama and the Republicans only won by 7 points. +5 is actually a pretty great spot to be at 6 months before the election, considering the fact that Democrats were actually leading the generic ballot at this point in 2010, which for whatever reason tends to be a historical high point for the incumbent party.

Tbf d's won the house by 10.5% in 2010

[IceSpear]

Bear in mind that most of the tightening in the generic ballot lately has been Rs coming home - in general R numbers are up but D numbers are about the same. This makes sense when you consider that Trump has had a few good weeks, primary season is underway, and Trump has started campaigning a bit. No one ever doubted (well, almost no one doubted) the ability of Rs to get 44-45 percent of the house vote this November. The question is can they get much if any beyond that. If Rs take 46.4-47 percent of the vote it’s hard to see the house as better than a coin flip and it’s virtually impossible to see a senate flip. If they get 44.5 percent then the house flips easily and the senate is a tossup. Obviously it’ll depend where the independents, disaffected Rs, and Obana-Trump voters go to see where in that range are fall.

Ds can be happy as long as they numbers don’t fall below 46-47 percent and R numbers don’t climb beyond 45 in any meaningful average, given how strong independents have broken for them thus far, in my opinion.

Agreed. Dems thinking they were going to win the generic vote by double digits were dreaming anyway. Even in the massive waves of 2008/2010, Obama and the Republicans only won by 7 points. +5 is actually a pretty great spot to be at 6 months before the election, considering the fact that Democrats were actually leading the generic ballot at this point in 2010, which for whatever reason tends to be a historical high point for the incumbent party.

Tbf d's won the house by 10.5% in 2010

True, but that was during a time when they were not only competitive in, but occasionally even dominating in, territory that they couldn't even dream of making competitive today.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Bear in mind that most of the tightening in the generic ballot lately has been Rs coming home - in general R numbers are up but D numbers are about the same. This makes sense when you consider that Trump has had a few good weeks, primary season is underway, and Trump has started campaigning a bit. No one ever doubted (well, almost no one doubted) the ability of Rs to get 44-45 percent of the house vote this November. The question is can they get much if any beyond that. If Rs take 46.4-47 percent of the vote it’s hard to see the house as better than a coin flip and it’s virtually impossible to see a senate flip. If they get 44.5 percent then the house flips easily and the senate is a tossup. Obviously it’ll depend where the independents, disaffected Rs, and Obana-Trump voters go to see where in that range are fall.

Ds can be happy as long as they numbers don’t fall below 46-47 percent and R numbers don’t climb beyond 45 in any meaningful average, given how strong independents have broken for them thus far, in my opinion.

Agreed. Dems thinking they were going to win the generic vote by double digits were dreaming anyway. Even in the massive waves of 2008/2010, Obama and the Republicans only won by 7 points. +5 is actually a pretty great spot to be at 6 months before the election, considering the fact that Democrats were actually leading the generic ballot at this point in 2010, which for whatever reason tends to be a historical high point for the incumbent party.

Tbf d's won the house by 10.5% in 2010

True, but that was during a time when they were not only competitive in, but occasionally even dominating in, territory that they couldn't even dream of making competitive today.

I still think they can win by 10.5%. There is no spin on AZ-08. That was a complete disaster for the GOP. Dems didn't even come close in 2008 there. Obama didnt do very hot in places like suburban TX and CA in 2008.

Obviously dems won't replicate the rural success they had in 2008, though.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Despite the generic ballot, we are seeing in these special elections that the momentum is still clearly in a blue wave mode.

[Maxwell]

NRCC NE-02 poll

Bacon (R) - 48
Ashford (D) - 46

Bacon (R) - 50
Eastman (D) - 40

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-power-briefing/2018/05/16/senate-intel-committee-russia-investigation-270842

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Those are bad numbers all around. Things will get better when Eastman gets her name recognition up.

But lol those are garbage numbers for Ashford too.

If Dems are genuinely cowardly enough to abandon a race over A GOP INTERNAL then they really don't deserve to ever lead again.

[LimoLiberal]

Despite the generic ballot, we are seeing in these special elections that the momentum is still clearly in a blue wave mode.

There have been 40 applicable special elections in this dailykos spreadsheet in 2018.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/htmlview#gid=0

Average swing leftwards in the 20 most recent special elections in 2018: D+3
Average swing leftwards in the first 20 special elections in 2018: D+24

Their momentum is clearly slowing down, if not stopped completely.

[IceSpear]

Bear in mind that most of the tightening in the generic ballot lately has been Rs coming home - in general R numbers are up but D numbers are about the same. This makes sense when you consider that Trump has had a few good weeks, primary season is underway, and Trump has started campaigning a bit. No one ever doubted (well, almost no one doubted) the ability of Rs to get 44-45 percent of the house vote this November. The question is can they get much if any beyond that. If Rs take 46.4-47 percent of the vote it’s hard to see the house as better than a coin flip and it’s virtually impossible to see a senate flip. If they get 44.5 percent then the house flips easily and the senate is a tossup. Obviously it’ll depend where the independents, disaffected Rs, and Obana-Trump voters go to see where in that range are fall.

Ds can be happy as long as they numbers don’t fall below 46-47 percent and R numbers don’t climb beyond 45 in any meaningful average, given how strong independents have broken for them thus far, in my opinion.

Agreed. Dems thinking they were going to win the generic vote by double digits were dreaming anyway. Even in the massive waves of 2008/2010, Obama and the Republicans only won by 7 points. +5 is actually a pretty great spot to be at 6 months before the election, considering the fact that Democrats were actually leading the generic ballot at this point in 2010, which for whatever reason tends to be a historical high point for the incumbent party.

Tbf d's won the house by 10.5% in 2010

True, but that was during a time when they were not only competitive in, but occasionally even dominating in, territory that they couldn't even dream of making competitive today.

I still think they can win by 10.5%. There is no spin on AZ-08. That was a complete disaster for the GOP. Dems didn't even come close in 2008 there. Obama didnt do very hot in places like suburban TX and CA in 2008.

Obviously dems won't replicate the rural success they had in 2008, though.

Yeah, it will be offset somewhat by Dems markedly improving in suburban areas since 2008, but in terms of sheer popular vote they were certainly in a better position in 2008. Just look at all the districts they won in 2008:

AL-02/AL-05: Even Roy Moore won them, gonna get BTFO.
AR-01/AR-04: A mere Blanching would be a decent result for Dems here, they couldn't even find candidates in 2016. The polar opposite of 2008, when the Democrats ran unopposed!
GA-08/GA-12: Won these in a landslide, but would be lucky to keep them within 20 points now.
ID-01: lol
IN-02/IN-08: Went from winning by ~30 points to losing by 20/30 points.
LA-03: Dems were literally unopposed, now routinely lose by over 60 points.
MS-01/MS-04: Dems won by double digits (and in MS-04 by 50 points!), yet today these districts would even deliver for Chris McDaniel.
MO-04: Winning by 30 to losing by 40.
ND/SD: Even in a massive wave it would be surprising if Dems got within single digits. Yet in 2008 they landslided by 25-35 points.
OH: Districts got too scrambled to make direct comparisons, but they were landsliding in Appalachia at the time.
OK-02: Winning by 40 to losing by 40.
TN: Even if Bredesen wins, he probably wouldn't come anywhere near carrying those rural districts where Dems ran unopposed (!) in 2008.
VA-09: Another Democrat running unopposed in a district Republicans routinely win by ~40 points now.
WV-01/WV-03: Yet another unopposed Dem in WV-01, that Republicans just won by 40 points. Even if Ojeda wins WV-03, he'd never come close to matching Rahall's ~35 point margin.
WY: Dems lost this, but it was within single digits, lol.

And this isn't even an all encompassing list!

Compare to the suburban districts where Dems are improving. They still broke 40% against Roskam, Rohrabacher, Dent, Paulsen, Kline, etc. There are some exceptions obviously (Frelinghuysen, LoBiondo, Castle, etc.), but for the most part the distribution is far from equal.

With them dominating in all that current day no go territory plus their total being inflated by tons of unopposed Democrats even in deep red districts, I'd be extremely surprised if they could top a 10 point win in 2018.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Despite the generic ballot, we are seeing in these special elections that the momentum is still clearly in a blue wave mode.

There have been 40 applicable special elections in this dailykos spreadsheet in 2018.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/htmlview#gid=0

Average swing leftwards in the 20 most recent special elections in 2018: D+3
Average swing leftwards in the first 20 special elections in 2018: D+24

Their momentum is clearly slowing down, if not stopped completely.

Counter point the most recent 20 are in bluer districts with the recent NY local races making up a huge chunk thus the swings by default won't be as big

[LimoLiberal]

Despite the generic ballot, we are seeing in these special elections that the momentum is still clearly in a blue wave mode.

There have been 40 applicable special elections in this dailykos spreadsheet in 2018.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/htmlview#gid=0

Average swing leftwards in the 20 most recent special elections in 2018: D+3
Average swing leftwards in the first 20 special elections in 2018: D+24

Their momentum is clearly slowing down, if not stopped completely.

Counter point the most recent 20 are in bluer districts with the recent NY local races making up a huge chunk thus the swings by default won't be as big

Ok, let's take away NY. We have a n of 10, so less reliable but the swing is still a measly 6.1 points left.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

LL, why should anyone take you seriously when you always get predictions wrong by 8+? Gillespie +3 is an embarrassment when Northam ended up winning by 9.

You even got a FL special election result wrong when the results were already in.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Despite the generic ballot, we are seeing in these special elections that the momentum is still clearly in a blue wave mode.

There have been 40 applicable special elections in this dailykos spreadsheet in 2018.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/htmlview#gid=0

Average swing leftwards in the 20 most recent special elections in 2018: D+3
Average swing leftwards in the first 20 special elections in 2018: D+24

Their momentum is clearly slowing down, if not stopped completely.

Counter point the most recent 20 are in bluer districts with the recent NY local races making up a huge chunk thus the swings by default won't be as big

Ok, let's take away NY. We have a n of 10, so less reliable but the swing is still a measly 6.1 points left.

Take away NY and the districts are still alot bluer than the first 20 so point still stands

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Despite the generic ballot, we are seeing in these special elections that the momentum is still clearly in a blue wave mode.

There have been 40 applicable special elections in this dailykos spreadsheet in 2018.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/htmlview#gid=0

Average swing leftwards in the 20 most recent special elections in 2018: D+3
Average swing leftwards in the first 20 special elections in 2018: D+24

Their momentum is clearly slowing down, if not stopped completely.

[Virginiá]

The takeaway from Limo's posts continues to be that he is as much a hack as the people he no doubt thinks of here, except he's a Republican-favoring hack, who has tunnel vision just as much as anyone else, except for his own narrative. So tbqh he (you, Limo) are in no position to be calling out other people for their unwavering beliefs in a Dem wave this November. You're even worse, just for the opposite.

[IceSpear]

The takeaway from Limo's posts continues to be that he is as much a hack as the people he no doubt thinks of here, except he's a Republican-favoring hack, who has tunnel vision just as much as anyone else, except for his own narrative. So tbqh he (you, Limo) are in no position to be calling out other people for their unwavering beliefs in a Dem wave this November. You're even worse, just for the opposite.

He can be a GOP hack if he wants. But the "I'm just an oh so concerned elitist latte sipping Northern Virginia limousine liberal" troll schtick is getting old.

If a Democrat troll made the account "WhiteTrashConservative" with an R-WV avatar, and started spamming every thread with "howdy ya'll this dem wave sure is gonna be big with all them darkies votin an such!" something tells me they wouldn't last very long.

[KingSweden]

The takeaway from Limo's posts continues to be that he is as much a hack as the people he no doubt thinks of here, except he's a Republican-favoring hack, who has tunnel vision just as much as anyone else, except for his own narrative. So tbqh he (you, Limo) are in no position to be calling out other people for their unwavering beliefs in a Dem wave this November. You're even worse, just for the opposite.

He can be a GOP hack if he wants. But the "I'm just an oh so concerned elitist latte sipping Northern Virginia limousine liberal" troll schtick is getting old.

If a Democrat troll made the account "WhiteTrashConservative" with an R-WV avatar, and started spamming every thread with "howdy ya'll this dem wave sure is gonna be big with all them darkies votin an such!" something tells me they wouldn't last very long.

Challenge accepted!

[LimoLiberal]

The takeaway from Limo's posts continues to be that he is as much a hack as the people he no doubt thinks of here, except he's a Republican-favoring hack, who has tunnel vision just as much as anyone else, except for his own narrative. So tbqh he (you, Limo) are in no position to be calling out other people for their unwavering beliefs in a Dem wave this November. You're even worse, just for the opposite.

He can be a GOP hack if he wants. But the "I'm just an oh so concerned elitist latte sipping Northern Virginia limousine liberal" troll schtick is getting old.

If a Democrat troll made the account "WhiteTrashConservative" with an R-WV avatar, and started spamming every thread with "howdy ya'll this dem wave sure is gonna be big with all them darkies votin an such!" something tells me they wouldn't last very long.

LOL what are you talking about?

[Arkansas Yankee]

RCP average today is at D +4.  It is not below 4 only because your favorite pollster, RASMUSSEN, HAS IT AT D +6.  Whatever.

[BudgieForce]

RCP average today is at D +4.  It is not below 4 only because your favorite pollster, RASMUSSEN, HAS IT AT D +6.  Whatever.

The RCP average is being heavily influenced right now by Reuters and YouGov. We've had a bit of a dearth of polling in May outside of the bouncy trackers. That wont stop any hot takes about the narrowing generic ballot but thats how I see it.

Edit: Of the last 8 polls added to the RCP aggregate, 6 have been from either Reuters or YouGov. So yeah, very few pollsters actually polling in May.

[junior chįmp]

RCP average today is at D +4.  It is not below 4 only because your favorite pollster, RASMUSSEN, HAS IT AT D +6.  Whatever.

Yawn....who cares? Republicans and Democrats were tied at this point in 2010 on RCP

[Maxwell]

RCP average today is at D +4.  It is not below 4 only because your favorite pollster, RASMUSSEN, HAS IT AT D +6.  Whatever.

Yawn....who cares? Republicans and Democrats were tied at this point in 2010 on RCP

lol is that true? that's hilarious.

[junior chįmp]

RCP average today is at D +4.  It is not below 4 only because your favorite pollster, RASMUSSEN, HAS IT AT D +6.  Whatever.

Yawn....who cares? Republicans and Democrats were tied at this point in 2010 on RCP

lol is that true? that's hilarious.

[Arkansas Yankee]

It is not I who has placed great emphasis on the generic vote this far out.  But the D advantage has been headed down.

Except for 2010 in midterms the GOP has run 3 to 4 points better than the final RCP average. We shall see.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It is not I who has placed great emphasis on the generic vote this far out.  But the D advantage has been headed down.

Except for 2010 in midterms the GOP has run 3 to 4 points better than the final RCP average. We shall see.

It's the dude who supported the child molester, long time no see!

[Gustaf]

Yup, he stands for family values, i.e. the right of powerful men to rape local kids without an oppressive government stepping in. It's fascinating how all these people pretend to be Christian since it must be very difficult (if they actually believed I think they'd be trying to avoid hell so we must assume they think God is a lie)