2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That was 10 points a little while ago. Something's happening...

Do not start.

[Politician]

The political environment is changing, part 2.

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/996437200014278662

CLF polling in the 48 most competitive congressional districts has D+3. It was D+11 in December.

Stop stalking random people on Twitter.

[UncleSam]

That was 10 points a little while ago. Something's happening...

Ya, it’s been a good news cycle for Trump. If a similar news cycle hits before the election id expect similar numbers. If a bad one hits I’d expect much worse numbers, and if a neutral one hits then somewhat worse. People really are lemmings that way, and reading too much into fluctuations in either direction is probably a mistake. That’s not to say that the fundamentals or average can’t change over time, just that it would be a slow change and probably a minor one.

GCB usually overshoots the PV margin though - see all of the recent wave years where the out party was massively ahead in the GCB. GCB usually also overshoots Dem support, though not always (for example in 2012).

I think D+8 in the PV is a reasonable projection as of now, with a final GCB between D+9-10. That should be enough to win the house barring a lot of terrible luck. Probably not enough to win the senate.

PSA: there are still 5.5 months and roughly a hundred news cycles between now and the election. Projections are highly liable to change and to look silly down the line.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If you all actually look at the RCP average, Trump's rating has remained relatively stable for the past week. It's around -9.5 which is still not enough to save the GOP in November.

[Blackacre]

That was 10 points a little while ago. Something's happening...

Do not start.

One doesn't have to be a concern troll to see those fluctuations and worry juuuust a little bit.

[IceSpear]

That was 10 points a little while ago. Something's happening...

Do not start.

One doesn't have to be a concern troll to see those fluctuations and worry juuuust a little bit.

http://www1.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

[Greedo punched first]

CA-10 Harder internal: Denham 42, Harder 13. Howze only at 4. R vs. R runoff is extremely unlikely.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Benchmark Model released their first House Model which has the dems winning 26 seats https://shareblue.com/benchmark-model-gop-lose-house-midterms/amp/

Cuz the models turned out fantastic for you guys in 2016 right?

[Confused Democrat]

Benchmark Model released their first House Model which has the dems winning 26 seats https://shareblue.com/benchmark-model-gop-lose-house-midterms/amp/

Cuz the models turned out fantastic for you guys in 2016 right?

What an original thought.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Benchmark Model released their first House Model which has the dems winning 26 seats https://shareblue.com/benchmark-model-gop-lose-house-midterms/amp/

Cuz the models turned out fantastic for you guys in 2016 right?

If you have an issue with this particular model, do explain why.  I'm sure many people here would be interested.  But pointing to failures of other models in the past is irrelevant.

[Classic Conservative]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/996723092226494465

DCCC Internal: Fitzpatrick 48% Wallace 46%

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/996723092226494465

DCCC Internal: Fitzpatrick 48% Wallace 46%

Looks about right.

[Gass3268]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/996723092226494465

DCCC Internal: Fitzpatrick 48% Wallace 46%

Looks about right.

Yup, Toss Up.

[Gass3268]

CA-45 (PPP): Porter 46% - Walters 43%

Toss Up

[LimoLiberal]

CA-45 (PPP): Porter 46% - Walters 43%

Toss Up

That's a nice poll for Democrats.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I'm actually surprised dems are leading in CA-45. I honestly thought democrats would gain 40 house seats before CA-45, but maybe I am overestimating California Republicans. I had Walters down as the least vulnerable of the 7 California Clinton-Republican seats.

[KingSweden]

Nice result for CA-45, which I have as the 5th or 6th likeliest CA seat to flip

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I'm actually surprised dems are leading in CA-45. I honestly thought democrats would gain 40 house seats before CA-45, but maybe I am overestimating California Republicans. I had Walters down as the least vulnerable of the 7 California Clinton-Republican seats.

Or Dems are already gaining 40 seats anyway, which seems more likely than not at this point

That could be it too honestly. IIRC Obama's 2008 performance (7.2% win) under this congressional map would get dems a net gain of about 48-50 seats. I don't expect a D+7.2% win to actually lead to 48-50 seats, because Obama did it by destroying the gerrymanders in Michigan/Wisconsin, but they could probably get to 40 seats with a D+8 spread.

[mds32]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/996723092226494465

DCCC Internal: Fitzpatrick 48% Wallace 46%

Looks about right.

Yup, Toss Up.

No matter who wins in November, the Bucks County Democrats are certainly thriving. Won 4/5 row offices in 2017 and just picked up a Trump-won state House seat.

True but the seat was D+1 so in fact one could say the GOP outperformed expectations there last night. Dems outperformed Clinton by 3 points, they've generally been doing so by 9-12 points. Fitzpatrick will fall well after many other unexpected races, the brand of Republicanism the family has showcased definitely makes it harder to win vs. many other seats.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Morning Consult:
Dems: 43%
Reps: 38%

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, May 13-15, 1231 RV

D 42 (-2), R 37 (+2). 

[Gass3268]

Is YouGov doing multiple polls per week now?

[KingSweden]

Saw somewhere that Rasmussen was D+6, I believe on DKE

[junior chįmp]

Saw somewhere that Rasmussen was D+6, I believe on DKE

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Is YouGov doing multiple polls per week now?

YouGov has started putting out daily snapshots of Trump approval (not sure if it includes GCB) with 1000-adult samples.  These are included in the 538 database, but I haven't bothered posting them because (a) they're really noisy and (b) it's too much work.  I think they're only doing one larger survey (multiday, 1500 adults) per week, but they may occasionally do something extra.