2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Mike Thick]

People’s Pundit Daily is restarting Trump approval polls/generic ballot polling next week.

Anyone who posts this crap gets an auto ignore from me.

What is people pundit daily?

It's a right-wing polling site that the conservative news people pump up because they got lucky in 2016.

I'm not going to post any of their stuff, but it'll be fun to watch the "lol! blue wave destroyed!" narrative emerge when they show Republicans doing 10+ points better than any other poll.

[Gass3268]

People’s Pundit Daily is restarting Trump approval polls/generic ballot polling next week.

Anyone who posts this crap gets an auto ignore from me.

What is people pundit daily?

It's a right-wing polling site that the conservative news people pump up because they got lucky in 2016.

I'm not going to post any of their stuff, but it'll be fun to watch the "lol! blue wave destroyed!" narrative emerge when they show Republicans doing 10+ points better than any other poll.

Bless you

[Politician]

Not to mention, people are claiming the Democrats are losing their generic ballot lead when in fact it's stable and is around the same it's usually been (December was an execption).

[Greedo punched first]

I just added another poll to Wikipedia. CA-48 Democratic internal poll for Hans Keirstead: Rohrabacher 31, Baugh 15.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Not to mention, people are claiming the Democrats are losing their generic ballot lead when in fact it's stable and is around the same it's usually been (December was an execption).

They are just filling space with nonsense.

[henster]

Dems need to amend Top Two so that if the top two are of the same party then a third candidate of the next biggest party is automatically added.

[wjx987]

Dems need to amend Top Two so that if the top two are of the same party then a third candidate of the next biggest party is automatically added.

Or better, Cali should scrap top two and just implement RCV.

[UncleSam]

Dems need to amend Top Two so that if the top two are of the same party then a third candidate of the next biggest party is automatically added.

If that were implemented the minority party would want to come in third and hope to split the vote. You need either the stipulation that top two can’t be from the same party, RCV, or just go to separate primaries like almost all other states.

[IceSpear]

Just popping in to say that Democrats lead in the generic ballot in May 2010. In fact, they lead as late as July 2010 (and as late as September 2014.)

Yeah yeah I know, babby's first election/babby's first midterm, but I still have no clue why some of the rational people here are so obsessed with these polls.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Just popping in to say that Democrats lead in the generic ballot in May 2010. In fact, they lead as late as July 2010 (and as late as September 2014.)

Didn't the Democrats actually win the popular vote anyway, despite not winning the House? The 2010 "election" was based on the 2000 census, which had plenty of Republican gerrymandering.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just popping in to say that Democrats lead in the generic ballot in May 2010. In fact, they lead as late as July 2010 (and as late as September 2014.)

Didn't the Democrats actually win the popular vote anyway, despite not winning the House? The 2010 "election" was based on the 2000 census, which had plenty of Republican gerrymandering.

No.  According to the official numbers from the Clerk of the House, the totals were:

R: 44,593,666
D: 38,854,459

http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2010election.pdf (page 59)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Just popping in to say that Democrats lead in the generic ballot in May 2010. In fact, they lead as late as July 2010 (and as late as September 2014.)

Didn't the Democrats actually win the popular vote anyway, despite not winning the House? The 2010 "election" was based on the 2000 census, which had plenty of Republican gerrymandering.

You're probably thinking of 2012, Democrats narrowly won the nationwide popular vote for the House that year.

[LimoLiberal]

PPP GCB - 50-39 in favor of Dems

Lots of other good q’s in here. Mitch McConnell has a 12% approval rating nationally, lol.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP_Release_National_32718.pdf

That's from late March, dude.

[KingSweden]

PPP GCB - 50-39 in favor of Dems

Lots of other good q’s in here. Mitch McConnell has a 12% approval rating nationally, lol.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP_Release_National_32718.pdf

That's from late March, dude.

Just spotted that, came to delete.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PPP GCB - 50-39 in favor of Dems

Lots of other good q’s in here. Mitch McConnell has a 12% approval rating nationally, lol.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP_Release_National_32718.pdf

That's from late March, dude.

Just spotted that, came to delete.

Damn you both. Got me excited.

Anyways, PPP has stated that their internals have shown a consisten ten point lead for the Dems since the GOP’s healthcare debacle.

[KingSweden]

PPP GCB - 50-39 in favor of Dems

Lots of other good q’s in here. Mitch McConnell has a 12% approval rating nationally, lol.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP_Release_National_32718.pdf

That's from late March, dude.

Just spotted that, came to delete.

Damn you both. Got me excited.

Anyways, PPP has stated that their internals have shown a consisten ten point lead for the Dems since the GOP’s healthcare debacle.

Sorry! Saw it on DKE and came here with the update, then realized it was old. Had to delete it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/leahaskarinam/status/996071614763732995

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/leahaskarinam/status/996071614763732995

If he’s leading his own internal by four, then he’s probably just about tied with Ann Kirkpatrick

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

"Sean T at RCP" is getting in on the sh**tfest as well...

Although do bear in mind RCP does have a slight R bias.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/996099288018059264

[Yank2133]

"Sean T at RCP" is getting in on the sh**tfest as well...

Although do bear in mind RCP does have a slight R bias.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/996099288018059264

What a horse**** take.

It is mindboggling how pundits throw out conventional wisdom when it concerns Republicans. If Democrats were in the same position as Republicans, these same clowns would be telling us they are doom (and they would be correct.)

44% approval rating lol, how the **** is that good?

[Politician]

"Sean T at RCP" is getting in on the sh**tfest as well...

Although do bear in mind RCP does have a slight R bias.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/996099288018059264

What a horse**** take.

It is mindboggling how pundits throw out conventional wisdom when it concerns Republicans. If Democrats were in the same position as Republicans, these same clowns would be telling us they are doom (and they would be correct.)

44% approval lol, how the **** is that good?

Obama had 46% approval in 2010, and we know what happened.

[Yank2133]

"Sean T at RCP" is getting in on the sh**tfest as well...

Although do bear in mind RCP does have a slight R bias.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/996099288018059264

What a horse**** take.

It is mindboggling how pundits throw out conventional wisdom when it concerns Republicans. If Democrats were in the same position as Republicans, these same clowns would be telling us they are doom (and they would be correct.)

44% approval lol, how the **** is that good?

Obama had 46% approval in 2010, and we know what happened.

I know and Clinton was in the mid-40s as well when the Dems got clobbered in 1994.  Trump had a 43% approval rating here in VA and looked what happened to R's in the general assembly.

It is bizarre how pundits keep lowering the bar for Trump and Republicans.
 

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm noticing that people are treating the NK summit as the source of why "blue wave is dead" which is dangerously stupid

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, May 6-8, 1228 RV

D 44 (+2)
R 35 (-4)

[Virginiá]

I don't think what Trende is saying is necessarily bad or wrong or anything. He's just going off the data he has, and without a doubt the data he is using doesn't portray a Democratic wipeout (although like he implied, still a sizable win that could flip the House).

I think the difference between him and some of us is that many of us are looking at where we think the race will be vs where it is right now. Also if you weigh the special election results more heavily, it does give you a reasonable basis for believing that the gcb polls aren't necessarily reflecting what the environment is and/or will be in November. I think there is a pretty reasonable chance that the floor falls out from under Republicans when September/October comes around. I think that would be somewhat in sync with past wave elections, where some of them broke late in the cycle.

There is also the PPP argument (which isn't just theirs, really) that the environment is actually stable and more in Democrats favor and the polls are just bouncing around right now as people play footsie with the idea of supporting someone they won't actually support come election day. I don't know how to prove this though.

Obama had 46% approval in 2010, and we know what happened.

To be fair, Democrats were severely overextended in 2010. Republicans aren't in a similar position, which is why a ~6.8% win for Democrats wouldn't flip over 60 seats.

It does't necessarily require the incumbent president to be super unpopular to generate a backlash. Generally the cutoff I've seen is 50%. If the approvals are under 50%, wild things can happen, and there might not be a significant difference between 39% and 44%.