2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 29, 2024, 01:48:32 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original		 « previous next »
Thread note


Pages: 1 ... 50 51 52 53 54 [55] 56 57 58 59 60 ... 96
Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original  (Read 209427 times)
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,054


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1350 on: May 11, 2018, 11:51:11 AM »
The only information I can find in the poll release about which races are battlegrounds is this:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1351 on: May 11, 2018, 11:54:29 AM »
If your population of toss up races is Missouri, Tennessee, North Dakota, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Arizona, Nevada and West Virginia,  R+3 is hardly the end of the world.

Edit: Here is the list:

Alaska (G), Arizona (S), Connecticut (G), Florida (G/S), Illinois (G), Indiana (S), Maine (G), Michigan (G), Minnesota (G), Missouri (S), Nevada (G/S), North Dakota (S), Tennessee (S) , West Virginia (S)
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1352 on: May 11, 2018, 11:58:26 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on May 11, 2018, 11:51:11 AM
The only information I can find in the poll release about which races are battlegrounds is this:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1353 on: May 11, 2018, 12:12:39 PM »
SSRS just did the CBS and CNN polls, I believe.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,038
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1354 on: May 11, 2018, 12:15:12 PM »
« Edited: May 11, 2018, 12:25:17 PM by PittsburghSteel »
Yeah, the poll also proves that CNN’s is a massive outlier. The past four or some polls we’ve gotten have it D+8 - D+9 and this is another one.

Anyways, some good news for the Democrats:

They hold a 15 point advantage in enthusiasm

HealthCare is a MASSIVE concern for voters, 51% say it’s one of their concerns, 23% say it’s their most important issue.

62% of people voting on HealthCare are lean/strong Democrats

55% of Republicans say their main concern on HealthCare are the costs, and as we are expecting, premiums are expected to skyrocket in the fall, so the numbers we get then will be interesting.



Logged
BudgieForce
superbudgie1582
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,298


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1355 on: May 11, 2018, 12:20:45 PM »
I take issue with the sample size. 500/24 is 21. So they basically polled 21 people per congressional district? 500 people for a generic ballot number is fine but 500 people to accurately poll 24 districts is not enough in my opinion. Way too much margin for error for such a small sample size.

Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1356 on: May 11, 2018, 12:24:11 PM »
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on May 11, 2018, 12:20:45 PM
I take issue with the sample size. 500/24 is 21. So they basically polled 21 people per congressional district? 500 people for a generic ballot number is fine but 500 people to accurately poll 24 districts is not enough in my opinion. Way too much margin for error for such a small sample size.



Are you expressing skepticism towards the Generic topline or the competitive district number?
Logged
Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,230


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.54

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1357 on: May 11, 2018, 12:25:27 PM »
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on May 11, 2018, 12:20:45 PM
I take issue with the sample size. 500/24 is 21. So they basically polled 21 people per congressional district? 500 people for a generic ballot number is fine but 500 people to accurately poll 24 districts is not enough in my opinion. Way too much margin for error for such a small sample size.



That wasn't the only thing included in the competitive district polling. They also included states like North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, and Tennessee.
Logged
BudgieForce
superbudgie1582
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,298


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1358 on: May 11, 2018, 12:28:48 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on May 11, 2018, 12:24:11 PM
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on May 11, 2018, 12:20:45 PM
I take issue with the sample size. 500/24 is 21. So they basically polled 21 people per congressional district? 500 people for a generic ballot number is fine but 500 people to accurately poll 24 districts is not enough in my opinion. Way too much margin for error for such a small sample size.



Are you expressing skepticism towards the Generic topline or the competitive district number?

The competitive district number. Its R+3 but the size of the sub-samples is too small to give an accurate representation in my opinion. But I'm not an expert so....
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,038
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1359 on: May 11, 2018, 12:29:29 PM »
« Edited: May 11, 2018, 12:35:27 PM by PittsburghSteel »
Quote from: Cadillac Conservative on May 11, 2018, 12:25:27 PM
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on May 11, 2018, 12:20:45 PM
I take issue with the sample size. 500/24 is 21. So they basically polled 21 people per congressional district? 500 people for a generic ballot number is fine but 500 people to accurately poll 24 districts is not enough in my opinion. Way too much margin for error for such a small sample size.



That wasn't the only thing included in the competitive district polling. They also included states like North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, and Tennessee.

Yeah, that irked me. Morris is acting like the number is all “doom and gloom” for the Democrats but doesn’t acknowledge the fact a large plurality of the states they polled are safe R states. Those states are sure to pull the number away from the Dems.

They didn’t Poll the states with the lions share of Tossups like PA, CA, TX, NJ, etc.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,038
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1360 on: May 11, 2018, 05:32:24 PM »
They're still climaxing over it:

https://www.rt.com/usa/426517-trump-war-republicans-democrats-poll/
Logged
BudgieForce
superbudgie1582
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,298


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1361 on: May 11, 2018, 06:42:26 PM »

Its best to just ignore it.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1362 on: May 11, 2018, 06:47:06 PM »

Especially since it’s fricking RT
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,038
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1363 on: May 11, 2018, 06:47:54 PM »

Oh, I know I'm supposed to ignore it. It's fun to make fun of the MSM's obsession over small things.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,878
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1364 on: May 11, 2018, 07:25:37 PM »
Even if Republicans have a decent year, which I still doubt, can media outlets stop calling it a "wave." That implies that they'll gain seats. If the GOP gets lucky they will simply maintain their majority. It's more like a "red stagnant marsh."
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1365 on: May 11, 2018, 07:28:22 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on May 11, 2018, 06:47:54 PM

Oh, I know I'm supposed to ignore it. It's fun to make fun of the MSM's obsession over small things.

Russia Today is not the MSM
Logged
Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,084


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1366 on: May 12, 2018, 01:53:17 AM »
People’s Pundit Daily is restarting Trump approval polls/generic ballot polling next week.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,054


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1367 on: May 12, 2018, 07:42:14 AM »
Ipsos/Reuters, May 6-10, 1317 RV

D 39 (nc)
R 37 (-1)
Logged
BudgieForce
superbudgie1582
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,298


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1368 on: May 12, 2018, 07:46:35 AM »
Quote from: Ted Bessell on May 12, 2018, 01:53:17 AM
People’s Pundit Daily is restarting Trump approval polls/generic ballot polling next week.

God damn it.
Logged
Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,623
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1369 on: May 12, 2018, 07:52:25 AM »
What's up with Ipsos poll? Are they just not pushing undecideds?
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,553
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1370 on: May 12, 2018, 07:57:24 AM »
Quote from: Ted Bessell on May 12, 2018, 01:53:17 AM
People’s Pundit Daily is restarting Trump approval polls/generic ballot polling next week.

Anyone who posts this crap gets an auto ignore from me.
Logged
Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,230


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.54

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1371 on: May 12, 2018, 08:55:10 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on May 12, 2018, 07:57:24 AM
Quote from: Ted Bessell on May 12, 2018, 01:53:17 AM
People’s Pundit Daily is restarting Trump approval polls/generic ballot polling next week.

Anyone who posts this crap gets an auto ignore from me.

What is people pundit daily?
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,054


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1372 on: May 12, 2018, 09:10:02 AM »
Quote from: Cadillac Conservative on May 12, 2018, 08:55:10 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on May 12, 2018, 07:57:24 AM
Quote from: Ted Bessell on May 12, 2018, 01:53:17 AM
People’s Pundit Daily is restarting Trump approval polls/generic ballot polling next week.

Anyone who posts this crap gets an auto ignore from me.

What is people pundit daily?

A right-wing news site.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,753


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1373 on: May 12, 2018, 09:13:51 AM »
I remember taking an online poll about Trump approval on a conservative news site once. I did not realize it was a conservative news site until I completed the poll and saw a >80% approval.

I only saw it because it was placed as an advertisement on 270towin.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1374 on: May 12, 2018, 09:56:06 AM »
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on May 12, 2018, 07:52:25 AM
What's up with Ipsos poll? Are they just not pushing undecideds?

They must have done something funky to the model
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 50 51 52 53 54 [55] 56 57 58 59 60 ... 96  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.057 seconds with 12 queries.