2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, May 6-8,  1232 RV

D 44 (+2)
R 35 (-4)

In the same poll, Trump approval went from -9 to -8 among RV, and from -10 to -3 among all adults.

[BudgieForce]

YouGov, May 6-8,  1232 RV

D 44 (+2)
R 35 (-4)

In the same poll, Trump approval went from -9 to -8 among RV, and from -10 to -3 among all adults.

I can't think of any reason why this would happen.

[Lamda]

https://twitter.com/MurphinDC/status/992465323088646146

Trump won this suburban Raleigh district 53-44.

What a great news!
Go Linda!

[LimoLiberal]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/politics/cnn-poll-generic-ballot-narrows/index.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Democrats - 47
Republicans - 44

From D+16 to D+6 to D+3 in a few short months.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

BLUE WAVE DEAD RED WAVE ON EVEN THOUGH IT'S AN OUTLIER!!

Lol you're hackish enough to actually make an entire thread for this.

Anyways, it's an obvious outlier.

[LimoLiberal]

BLUE WAVE IS DEAD EVEN THOUGH IT'S AN OUTLIER!!

Lol you're hackish enough to actually make an entire thread for this.

There's a ton of issue polling in there about immigration, guns, support for the president, etc. so I thought it deserved its own thread.

[KingSweden]

I disagree, Andrew, this is still ripe for the GCB thread, where we can discuss both topline and issue-based #s

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Democrats are up a whopping 9 points, 50-41, in the newest CBS news poll (A- rating from 538). This would easily give democrats the house, and likely give them around 35-40 house seats.

According to the pollster, only 36% of people view the Republican party favorably. Ouch.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByVu4fDHYJgVYUF5MzVDT1E3NTRPdFg3MmdYdXI4SXBzdTZR/view

[KingSweden]

I see what you did there

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I see what you did there

I am not doing anything here. I am legitimately afraid. It would be a disaster if Republicans lose their majority in 2018. Mitch Mcconnell and Paul Ryan have been fantastic leaders that have gotten us so far in so little time.

[KingSweden]

I see what you did there

I am not doing anything here. I am legitimately afraid. It would be a disaster if Republicans lose their majority in 2018. Mitch Mcconnell and Paul Ryan have been fantastic leaders that have gotten us so far in so little time.

Uh huh ok

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So CNN released a poll.., (Outlier)

Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 44%

44% is around the level of support I expect the GOP to win on election day. There's a heavy amount of undecideds, and Cook has an article explaining why the Dem margin isn't sky high: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/if-democrats-are-doing-so-great-why-dont-they-have-bigger-lead

[LimoLiberal]

So CNN released a poll.., (Outlier)

Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 44%

44% is around the level of support I expect the GOP to win on election day. There's a heavy amount of undecideds, and Cook has an article explaining why the Dem margin isn't sky high: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/if-democrats-are-doing-so-great-why-dont-they-have-bigger-lead

How can you in good faith call it an outlier? Another high-quality poll (PEW) has D+5, Reuters/Ipsos has D+4, D+3 is perfectly plausible.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So CNN released a poll.., (Outlier)

Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 44%

44% is around the level of support I expect the GOP to win on election day. There's a heavy amount of undecideds, and Cook has an article explaining why the Dem margin isn't sky high: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/if-democrats-are-doing-so-great-why-dont-they-have-bigger-lead

How can you in good faith call it an outlier? Another high-quality poll (PEW) has D+5, Reuters/Ipsos has D+4, D+3 is perfectly plausible.

Because the polls are shifting (as expected) to the Democrats. Reuters is not 100% reliable and you should know that by now. Besides, it's clear that the Democrats are not winning the popular vote by just 3 points.

[BudgieForce]

Why we go by the average. If dems are up 7 right now, a poll showing +3 is within that range.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Reuters/ISPOS

Democrats: 43% (+2)
Republicans: 37% (-/-)

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/reuters-ipsos-data-core-political-2018-05-04

[Gass3268]

Funny thing about the CNN poll is that it was done by SSRS. SSRS also did a poll for CBS at essentially the same time and has the Democrats up 9.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why we go by the average. If dems are up 7 right now, a poll showing +3 is within that range.

Exactly.  It's normal for there to be some noise and variance among polls; it's suspicious when there isn't much.

It's interesting(?) that in the 538 average, the D average has been quite stable for the last few weeks, but the R number has been rather noisy.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Btw in that CNN poll that have enthusiasm numbers:

Democrats-

Enthused: 53% (+12)
Unenthused: 41%

Republicans-

Enthused: 43%
Unenthused: 46% (-3)

That's the bad news for the GOP.

[KingSweden]

Why we go by the average. If dems are up 7 right now, a poll showing +3 is within that range.

But if we did that we’d be denied pissing matches between PittsburghSteel and Andrew

[BudgieForce]

Why we go by the average. If dems are up 7 right now, a poll showing +3 is within that range.

But if we did that we’d be denied pissing matches between PittsburghSteel and Andrew

Of course, it's a definitive part of the Atlas experience. /jk

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is adjacent to Limo's CNN poll thread.  Why haven't they mutually annihilated each other like matter and antimatter?

[KingSweden]

This is adjacent to Limo's CNN poll thread.  Why haven't they mutually annihilated each other like matter and antimatter?

Eh I like DTC, I wouldn’t want that to happen

[Hindsight was 2020]

Limo when the dems win the house you need to change to R/blue

[BudgieForce]

Why did this need to be it's own thread Limo?