2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Since Trump's numbers remained relatively stable in that Pew poll, I'm gonna chalk up such a huge movement to a wacky sample.

I don't like the results of the poll, therefore it is bad.

Weren't you going to leave the forum for a week?

No. He is going to continue to say dumb garbage and then act like an ass whenever people call him out on it.

[LimoLiberal]

LimoLiberal got Alabama wrong by almost 30, AZ-08 wrong by 10, Virginia-gov wrong by 10

Do I conduct the Pew poll? How do my wrong predictions affect the results of a poll?

[BudgieForce]

Since Trump's numbers remained relatively stable in that Pew poll, I'm gonna chalk up such a huge movement to a wacky sample.

I don't like the results of the poll, therefore it is bad.

Remember when Qunnipiac's Generic Ballot had dem's lead drop to +3 and everyone freaked out but their next poll 2 weeks later had it at +8? I'm not to worried about large movement in the generic ballot because they've mostly proven to be noise.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Since Trump's numbers remained relatively stable in that Pew poll, I'm gonna chalk up such a huge movement to a wacky sample.

I don't like the results of the poll, therefore it is bad.

Remember when Qunnipiac's Generic Ballot had dem's lead drop to +3 and everyone freaked out but their next poll 2 weeks later had it at +8? I'm not to worried about large movement in the generic ballot because they've mostly proven to be noise.

Also remember when the generic ballot was only like D+6 but then dems got a 16 point swing in AZ-08 despite 47% of voters being republican?

[LimoLiberal]

Since Trump's numbers remained relatively stable in that Pew poll, I'm gonna chalk up such a huge movement to a wacky sample.

I don't like the results of the poll, therefore it is bad.

Remember when Qunnipiac's Generic Ballot had dem's lead drop to +3 and everyone freaked out but their next poll 2 weeks later had it at +8? I'm not to worried about large movement in the generic ballot because they've mostly proven to be noise.

Quinnipiac consistently has the highest pro-Dem house effect of any poll in the post-Trump era. Considering their previous polls, D+8 isn't a good result at all for Democrats (I think 538 adjusted it down to D+5).

[LimoLiberal]

Since Trump's numbers remained relatively stable in that Pew poll, I'm gonna chalk up such a huge movement to a wacky sample.

I don't like the results of the poll, therefore it is bad.

Remember when Qunnipiac's Generic Ballot had dem's lead drop to +3 and everyone freaked out but their next poll 2 weeks later had it at +8? I'm not to worried about large movement in the generic ballot because they've mostly proven to be noise.

Also remember when the generic ballot was only like D+6 but then dems got a 16 point swing in AZ-08 despite 47% of voters being republican?

Remember when the generic ballot was D+6 and in the 13 state legislative special elections in the past two weeks the Democrats have had a +0.5 swing on average?

That's not to say that the blue wave is dead, but the point is that single statistics (like the house special elections this year) shouldn't be treated as major evidence without backup from other statistics.  Trump's approval is its highest since May 2017. Democrats still lead by a substantial margin on the generic ballot, but it's nowhere near as large as it was in late 2017. By some degree, the political environment is getting better for Republicans. That doesn't mean they'll do good, but their chances of holding the house and senate increase every time Trump's approval ticks up a point which it has done recently.

[BudgieForce]

Since Trump's numbers remained relatively stable in that Pew poll, I'm gonna chalk up such a huge movement to a wacky sample.

I don't like the results of the poll, therefore it is bad.

Remember when Qunnipiac's Generic Ballot had dem's lead drop to +3 and everyone freaked out but their next poll 2 weeks later had it at +8? I'm not to worried about large movement in the generic ballot because they've mostly proven to be noise.

Quinnipiac consistently has the highest pro-Dem house effect of any poll in the post-Trump era. Considering their previous polls, D+8 isn't a good result at all for Democrats (I think 538 adjusted it down to D+5).

Okay, and? It's a poll in May that shows movement. Throw it in the aggregate and see if it's a trend. God forbid I think its noise.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Since Trump's numbers remained relatively stable in that Pew poll, I'm gonna chalk up such a huge movement to a wacky sample.

I don't like the results of the poll, therefore it is bad.

Remember when Qunnipiac's Generic Ballot had dem's lead drop to +3 and everyone freaked out but their next poll 2 weeks later had it at +8? I'm not to worried about large movement in the generic ballot because they've mostly proven to be noise.

Also remember when the generic ballot was only like D+6 but then dems got a 16 point swing in AZ-08 despite 47% of voters being republican?

Remember when the generic ballot was D+6 and in the 13 state legislative special elections in the past two weeks the Democrats have had a +0.5 swing on average?

That's not to say that the blue wave is dead, but the point is that single statistics (like the house special elections this year) shouldn't be treated as major evidence without backup from other statistics.  Trump's approval is its highest since May 2017. Democrats still lead by a substantial margin on the generic ballot, but it's nowhere near as large as it was in late 2017. By some degree, the political environment is getting better for Republicans. That doesn't mean they'll do good, but their chances of holding the house and senate increase every time Trump's approval ticks up a point which it has done recently.

The average of all special elections has been a swing of at least D+10. That's a lot better than just looking at 13 special elections (and ignoring the 14th which was a 16 point swing when voters were 47% republican). Obviously recent statistics generally are better... but 13 elections, most of which were in NY and FL, is obviously a dumb sample size. But you love cherrypicking to prove your narrative.

But keep saying ignorant garbage and then wondering why people on this forum aren't a fan of you, and keep digging your heels. And keep bragging about getting elections wrong by only 7% LOL.

You need to stop embarrassing yourself, kiddo.

[LimoLiberal]

Since Trump's numbers remained relatively stable in that Pew poll, I'm gonna chalk up such a huge movement to a wacky sample.

I don't like the results of the poll, therefore it is bad.

Remember when Qunnipiac's Generic Ballot had dem's lead drop to +3 and everyone freaked out but their next poll 2 weeks later had it at +8? I'm not to worried about large movement in the generic ballot because they've mostly proven to be noise.

Also remember when the generic ballot was only like D+6 but then dems got a 16 point swing in AZ-08 despite 47% of voters being republican?

Remember when the generic ballot was D+6 and in the 13 state legislative special elections in the past two weeks the Democrats have had a +0.5 swing on average?

That's not to say that the blue wave is dead, but the point is that single statistics (like the house special elections this year) shouldn't be treated as major evidence without backup from other statistics.  Trump's approval is its highest since May 2017. Democrats still lead by a substantial margin on the generic ballot, but it's nowhere near as large as it was in late 2017. By some degree, the political environment is getting better for Republicans. That doesn't mean they'll do good, but their chances of holding the house and senate increase every time Trump's approval ticks up a point which it has done recently.

The average of all special elections has been a swing of at least D+10. That's a lot better than just looking at 13 special elections (and ignoring the 14th which was a 16 point swing when voters were 47% republican). Obviously recent statistics generally are better... but 13 elections, most of which were in NY and FL, is obviously a dumb sample size. But you love cherrypicking to prove your narrative.

But keep saying ignorant garbage and then wondering why people on this forum aren't a fan of you, and keep digging your heels. And keep bragging about getting elections wrong by only 7% LOL.

You need to stop embarrassing yourself, kiddo.

That's the point... anybody can take any statistic and manipulate it to drive any narrative they want. It's important to look at all the statistics, not just the ones that show the best for your team and party. Special elections are great for Democrats on balance, but if someone looked at just the past two weeks they could create the narrative "blue wave is dead" (e.g. Scott Presler).

I'm looking at the most important # for the opposition party in midterms - the popularity of the president. And it's at its highest point in a year. Of course, it's still low relative to the historical average for presidents. But it suggests that things are getting better for the President's party. How much better? Will he continue going up? Will he fall back down again? We don't know.

[Devout Centrist]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

--CargoConservative, November 2016

[KingSweden]

Limo - you’re once again stubbornly refusing to consider what it is about your history on this site, your posting style, and your lack of humility that have brought us to the point where people give you zero benefit of the doubt about your intentions when you add editorial comments or analysis to polls.

[publicunofficial]

LimoLiberal should be made a moderator if Dems don't get 30+ congressional seats this year.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

No Kanye shift for the GOP
Millennials still heavily favor the Democrats over the GOP
Another poll showing Dems winning white college grads

[Gass3268]

Love live the chart:

[Ebsy]

The Pew poll is not very credible lol.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Pew poll is not very credible lol.

Explain.

[OneJ]

Love live the chart:

Are we really less than 200 days away from Election Day? Man time flies so fast. However, I’m still not very concerned about the Democrats underperforming though. As long as too many challengers, or none at all preferably, don’t do anything dumb that could blow tight races away I’m confident in their chances.

[KingSweden]

The Pew poll is not very credible lol.

Explain.

Yes, please do. Throw it in the pile and move on, but Pew isn’t Zogby

[GeorgiaModerate]

Love live the chart:

Are we really less than 200 days away from Election Day? Man time flies so fast. However, I’m still not very concerned about the Democrats underperforming though. As long as too many challengers, or none at all preferably, don’t do anything dumb that could blow tight races away I’m confident in their chances.

186 as of today.  Sunday will be six months exactly.

[Virginiá]

I just don't see what the point is in arguing over this with every poll, and I'd say this applies more to LimoLiberal than anyone else, as he is prone to editorializing and trying to make grand conclusions after every poll. I don't know if there is a single respected analyst who would say this is a good idea, although I'm sure you could find some media hacks at CNN who would say hyping up individual polls as solid predictors is a good idea.

I'd love the average to be 6 points higher, but where it sits right now on RCP/538 is still unambiguously good for Democrats, especially when compared to past election cycles.

[Ebsy]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Doesn't match up well with the Generic Ballot . Too Dem-friendly.

[KingSweden]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Doesn't match up well with the Generic Ballot . Too Dem-friendly.

Here’s a crazy suggestion - what if one took GCB polls, district polls, state polls, fundraising, recruiting and recent election results and viewed the picture comprehensively rather than cherry picking data that confirms your priors and then trolling the board about how you’re right and everybody else is wrong?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Doesn't match up well with the Generic Ballot . Too Dem-friendly.

Here’s a crazy suggestion - what if one took GCB polls, district polls, state polls, fundraising, recruiting and recent election results and viewed the picture comprehensively rather than cherry picking data that confirms your priors and then trolling the board about how you’re right and everybody else is wrong?

What a radical idea!

[Oryxslayer]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Doesn't match up well with the Generic Ballot . Too Dem-friendly.

Here’s a crazy suggestion - what if one took GCB polls, district polls, state polls, fundraising, recruiting and recent election results and viewed the picture comprehensively rather than cherry picking data that confirms your priors and then trolling the board about how you’re right and everybody else is wrong?

Something else of course to be taken into account is that Morganelli is to the Lehigh Valley like Tim Holden used to be for Schuylkill. Insanely popular in his seat, but not to liked outside the region for his rightish views. I have a hard time seeing Moganelli loose.