2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/danrsena/status/987003899998437376

Ann Wagner in trouble.

Both Wagner and Hawely to lose in November?!

Damn....Claire  is playing 4D chess here

And the ambitious governor on the verge of a career implosion.

She's knocking out all of her biggest threats in one year.

[GlobeSoc]

Probably people who want Democrats to be able to block legislation but not judges.

That seems overly generous to the political awareness of the average voter.

To be fair you'd only need 1% of the population to have that thinking and everyone else to have consistent answers to get that result

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Ann Wagner is probably going to win in 2018. I just do not see the wave getting big enough to defeat her. She might be more vulnerable in 2020, however.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ann’s vulnerability doesn’t surprise me at all. The GOP is tanking in suburban support.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Ann Wagner is probably going to win in 2018. I just do not see the wave getting big enough to defeat her. She might be more vulnerable in 2020, however.

If this were an open seat I could see this flipping, but not with an incumbent who won by more than 20 points.

[Badger]

Cook Political: If Democrats Are Doing so Great, Why Don't They Have a Bigger Lead on Generic Ballot?

My theory is that because both parties are so incredibly unpopular, people don't really want to pick either of them in a generic question. Many people dislike both.

However, because democrats don't have to defend unpopular Trump, tax reform, and health care, and are able to define themselves with policies not being pursued currently, they are better able to differentiate themselves from generic D, whereas most republicans are unable to get away from the generic R label.

Good analysis. I'll also add two things this article misses. First, I'm not sure how much it accounts for voter self-identification versus actual voter registration. Weather of voter identifies with one of the two parties for an independent is often quite different from their actual voter registration. Such identification tends to ebb and flow with the popularity, or lack thereof, of the various two parties. With that in mind one can expect the number of self-identified Democrats and Republicans appearing at the polls to rise and drop accordingly.

Secondly, the selection postulates approximately 44% of independent voters voting Republican in November. Feel free to correct me, but I believe that is dramatically better than anything the Republicans have been able to manage in just about every special election in the last year, often by double digits. For example, in A-Z 8 the numbers I saw said the Republican pick up only anywhere from 1/3 1/4 of independent voters. I don't recall them doing significantly better in any of the special elections thus far with the possible exception of ga6 and Montana.

This article indicates that even 44% showing among Independents would not be good for republicans, and at this point even breaking 40% appears to be a challenge

[District101]

Ann Wagner is probably going to win in 2018. I just do not see the wave getting big enough to defeat her. She might be more vulnerable in 2020, however.

Wagner's also got a huge CoH advantage on her opponents. Although Cort VanOstran is raising credible money, he only has a few hundred thousand on hand, while Wagner has $3.3 million. Democrats' best hope of winning here would be an open seat in a Democratic wave.

[Virginiá]

My theory is that because both parties are so incredibly unpopular, people don't really want to pick either of them in a generic question. Many people dislike both.

However, because democrats don't have to defend unpopular Trump, tax reform, and health care, and are able to define themselves with policies not being pursued currently, they are better able to differentiate themselves from generic D, whereas most republicans are unable to get away from the generic R label.

That is a really good point actually - I never considered that before. The Democratic Party was considerably more popular back in 2006-2008, when they were regularly scoring double digit polls (source).

[Sestak]

Cook Political: If Democrats Are Doing so Great, Why Don't They Have a Bigger Lead on Generic Ballot?

My theory is that because both parties are so incredibly unpopular, people don't really want to pick either of them in a generic question. Many people dislike both.

However, because democrats don't have to defend unpopular Trump, tax reform, and health care, and are able to define themselves with policies not being pursued currently, they are better able to differentiate themselves from generic D, whereas most republicans are unable to get away from the generic R label.

^^^^

People are forgetting; this is literally half the reason that midterm gravity happens.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That Cook article makes perfect sense. Independents always claim they have no idea who they are voting for, that drives down both sides's numbers in polls.

What determine's their vote in a midterm is their opinion on the man or woman who is sitting in the Oval Office, and the author made it pretty clear that Independents despise Trump. We have been seeing with the special election results that they have been breaking heavily in favor of the Democrats. Both Lamb and Tipirneni won the independent vote by immense margins that were above 60%.

I guarantee you that if pollsters began to push independents and undecideds to tell which way they were leaning, the Democrat margin would be much higher than it is.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 22-26, 1891 RV

D 44 (+4)
R 33 (-2)
D+11 (+6)

The previous D+5 may have been an outlier, as the last before that were D+9 and D+10.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 22-26, 1891 RV

D 44 (+4)
R 33 (-2)
D+11 (+6)

The previous D+5 may have been an outlier, as the last before that were D+9 and D+10.

Any comments on the blue surge Limo Liberal or Hofoid?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 22-26, 1891 RV

D 44 (+4)
R 33 (-2)
D+11 (+6)

The previous D+5 may have been an outlier, as the last before that were D+9 and D+10.

Any comments on the blue surge Limo Liberal or Hofoid?

Maybe hofoid is Dean Chambers and will unskew this poll.
Too bad we lost the other guy with the personal model which showed Roy Moore winning in a landslide.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats are back up to an 8.2 lead at 538.

[adrac]

Democrats are back up to an 8.2 lead at 538.

It's almost like opinion polling is noisy.

[IceSpear]

Democrats are back up to an 8.2 lead at 538.

It's almost like opinion polling is noisy.

Yet the usual suspects will do what they do when it inevitably drops again, lol.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 22-26, 1891 RV

D 44 (+4)
R 33 (-2)
D+11 (+6)

The previous D+5 may have been an outlier, as the last before that were D+9 and D+10.

Any comments on the blue surge Limo Liberal or Hofoid?

Wait for the Korea GOP/Trump bounce.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 22-26, 1891 RV

D 44 (+4)
R 33 (-2)
D+11 (+6)

The previous D+5 may have been an outlier, as the last before that were D+9 and D+10.

Any comments on the blue surge Limo Liberal or Hofoid?

Wait for the Korea GOP/Trump bounce.

Korea is not going to change anyone's vote.

[Gass3268]

MO: Republicans +3

Source

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

MO: Republicans +3

Source

Looks like Wagner is vulnerable after all...

What would pocess Hawley to release this poll to "quell" GOP fears? He's leading McCaskill by only a point, Greitens is 20 points underwater, and it shows that the GOP is weak in the state. Idiot.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

GOP + 3 in Missouri is a disaster lol. I don't even believe that Wagner is vulnerable.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

GOP + 3 in Missouri is a disaster lol. I don't even believe that Wagner is vulnerable.

Yep, it's a disaster for the Dems. Considering that they've banked on winning suburban seats like Wagner's...this will be a rough November. I can see the GOP gaining 10 seats at this rate. Just wait for the N. Korea bounce.

Yep, now I know why King Lear has been inactive.

[KingSweden]

GOP + 3 in Missouri is a disaster lol. I don't even believe that Wagner is vulnerable.

Yep, it's a disaster for the Dems. Considering that they've banked on winning suburban seats like Wagner's...this will be a rough November. I can see the GOP gaining 10 seats at this rate. Just wait for the N. Korea bounce.

Yep, now I know why King Lear has been inactive.

[Blackacre]

GOP + 3 in Missouri is a disaster lol. I don't even believe that Wagner is vulnerable.

Yep, it's a disaster for the Dems. Considering that they've banked on winning suburban seats like Wagner's...this will be a rough November. I can see the GOP gaining 10 seats at this rate. Just wait for the N. Korea bounce.

Let's crunch some numbers, shall we?

This GCB is for the entire state of Missouri, that is mostly hyper-republican rural areas. The GOP won the House vote in MO's 8 districts by 20.34 percentage points in 2016. So first of all, R+3 is more than a 17 point overperformance by Ds. (consistent with AZ-8) Such an overperformance (or anything CLOSE to it) in other states like, say, Michigan, where the GOP won the House vote by 1.06 percentage points, would lead to a floodgate of D pickups.

Now, you cite Wagner as interpreting this GCB as good news. Wagner won her last election by 20.87 points. Such an overperformance, if universally distributed among all 8 CDs in Missouri, would have her winning by 3.53 points. Which means she's vulnerable, if a slight favorite. Of course, that's assuming that the overperformance is distributed evenly, when the data tells us that the overperformance is more pronounced in GOP-held districts and less so in Democratic-held districts, which means it would be greater in Wagner's district, which means she's even more vulnerable.

This is a disaster for the Republican Party.

[Landslide Lyndon]

GOP + 3 in Missouri is a disaster lol. I don't even believe that Wagner is vulnerable.

Yep, it's a disaster for the Dems. Considering that they've banked on winning suburban seats like Wagner's...this will be a rough November. I can see the GOP gaining 10 seats at this rate. Just wait for the N. Korea bounce.

Mods please ban.