2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[LimoLiberal]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

No dude. Today I went to English class, did a timed writing about Catcher in the Rye, and then AP GOV, where we learned about party primaries (I already know a lot). Now I have a little free time. I'm going to continue countering your bullsh**t with my actual life until you stop with the RRH stuff.

...

Lol I spend hours on political forums and websites. That doesn't make me an expert by any means. But the AP GOV class, designed for teenagers with little to no political knowledge, is obviously easier for me. Not me bragging, just you being a jerk.

Perhaps pay attention more when they go over voting theory and rationality then, since your Governor Gillespie and Senator Moore +27 predictions were so wonderfully indicative of your political knowledge.

Any prediction I've made in any election has 1000 times the merit of you calling me Andrew for two months, no matter how wrong they were.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Go to bed, Andrew.

[LimoLiberal]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

No dude. Today I went to English class, did a timed writing about Catcher in the Rye, and then AP GOV, where we learned about party primaries (I already know a lot). Now I have a little free time. I'm going to continue countering your bullsh**t with my actual life until you stop with the RRH stuff.

...

Lol I spend hours on political forums and websites. That doesn't make me an expert by any means. But the AP GOV class, designed for teenagers with little to no political knowledge, is obviously easier for me. Not me bragging, just you being a jerk.

Perhaps pay attention more when they go over voting theory and rationality then, since your Governor Gillespie and Senator Moore +27 predictions were so wonderfully indicative of your political knowledge.

Lol I'm sure I could find a post in your history from early January saying "Trump's approval rating is going to fall as soon as his holiday bump fades" and "the generic ballot can only get worse for Republicans".

[LimoLiberal]

I would appreciate if a mod deleted these woefully off-topic posts. I don't really care for conflict. I just want it so every time I post something I don't get referred to as "Andrew from RRH".

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

There's a new Atlas function where you can completely block an ignored users posts. I suggest you guys do that, because this forum is far better when you don't have to see LimoLibel and King Tear's posts.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

There's a new Atlas function where you can completely block an ignored users posts. I suggest you guys do that, because this forum is far better when you don't have to see LimoLibel and King Tear's posts.

How do you do that? The only three people I have on ignore now are Bagel, smolt and Lear. Andrew will probably go on eventually.

Profile --> Atlas - Forum Options (this was just added in the new update) > Hide posts by ignored users more thoroughly

By doing this, you can rid yourself of Andrew forever.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Also, why would LimoLibel care that someone is calling him "Andrew" if it's not true? It's just a regular name after all.

The reason he cares is because it's true and it's a secret he didn't want out.

[King Lear]

My current outlook is D+30 in the House.

[King Lear]

Democrats are on track for a massive win this year, I’m currently projecting a net gain of D+30 in the House and D+2 in the Senate.

[Devout Centrist]

In other news, the Democratic Generic Ballot advantage on 538 is at 7%. That's about the same as it was in the summer of 2018. I think that we're overestimating the effects of a Republican gerrymander. It reminds me a little of 2010. Many pundits missed the fact that Democrats were historically overextended in Republican territory; I think something similar is brewing this cycle.

Democrats are on track for a massive win this year, I’m currently projecting a net gain of D+30 in the House and D+2 in the Senate.

That is a bit optimistic.

[King Lear]

In other news, the Democratic Generic Ballot advantage on 538 is at 7%. That's about the same as it was in the summer of 2018. I think that we're overestimating the effects of a Republican gerrymander. It reminds me a little of 2010. Many pundits missed the fact that Democrats were historically overextended in Republican territory; I think something similar is brewing this cycle.

Democrats are on track for a massive win this year, I’m currently projecting a net gain of D+30 in the House and D+2 in the Senate.

That is a bit optimistic.

Honestly, I don’t think their going to win the House or Senate, but I’m forced to say that, because if I post my real opinions, the moderators will ban me (they already have me on Post Moderation).

[Virginiá]

^ But the Moderator who handles bans is a Republican lol

The issue is that almost everyone thinks you are a concern troll. You also have a tendency to post redundantly that is borderline spam. You created like 5 similar threads for the top California House races within a span of just a day or two. And over on the General Discussion board, sometimes its like someone pulled a "generic liberal stereotypes" string hanging off your back and you spew a bunch of a "White Racist" "Bigot" statements in a paragraph rife with run on sentences. Those are just the quirks that come to mind at 2:36am, for the record.

I don't know, I mean in my personal opinion, you seem like someone who legitimately trying to screw with people here. At this point, I don't particularly care if you say D+30 or R+30 in every post you make (although one of them would still be another reason you doubt your intentions). You seem to press way too many buttons for a user with innocent intentions.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's a new Atlas function where you can completely block an ignored users posts. I suggest you guys do that, because this forum is far better when you don't have to see LimoLibel and King Tear's posts.

How do you do that? The only three people I have on ignore now are Bagel, smolt and Lear. Andrew will probably go on eventually.

Profile --> Atlas - Forum Options (this was just added in the new update) > Hide posts by ignored users more thoroughly

By doing this, you can rid yourself of Andrew forever.

Thank you!  (And also to the powers that be for implementing this.)

[UncleSam]

King Lear if you really think Rs will have a good midterm cycle then it's pathetic but it's probably better to just not say it on this forum. The red avatars here get very upset by predictions that are not in line with the Atlas Consensus (TM) tidal wave that is approaching. Literally any signs to the contrary (even ones pointing towards merely a good cycle for Dems rather than a great one), will be ignored and dismissed summarily. And by the way, it is also very unlikely Rs will have a good midterm from where we stand, outside of perhaps the Senate.

Atlas is a lot more useful for learning about current obscure political events or learning about the Democratic Party's response to an issue then it is to learn about 'real' projections (as if such a thing even exists this far out, much less decades into the future) of future races.

In other words, Atlas is best used with a self filter and as a learning exercise if you're curious about certain things. I wouldn't recommend taking the projection threads too seriously, and I honestly just wouldn't post rosy predictions for Rs at all even if you earnestly thought they would come to be reality.

Lighten up, it's an online political forum. It could not matter less whether people like you here or anyone believes what you post.

[Hindsight was 2020]

UncleSam the reason we get mad at Lear or limo for that matter when they say the R's will have a good midterm is they back it up the same way. It always either citing Rasumessen daily tracker of Trump's approval or more obnoxiously point to Trump going from 38 to 41 or CGB going from D+8 to D+6 and screaming "this trend holds up dems are doomed". All the while ignoring the 3-4 other polls coming out that has Trump in the high 30's or dems in the +8 to +9 range

[Bidenworth2020]

In other news, the Democratic Generic Ballot advantage on 538 is at 7%. That's about the same as it was in the summer of 2018. I think that we're overestimating the effects of a Republican gerrymander. It reminds me a little of 2010. Many pundits missed the fact that Democrats were historically overextended in Republican territory; I think something similar is brewing this cycle.

Democrats are on track for a massive win this year, I’m currently projecting a net gain of D+30 in the House and D+2 in the Senate.

That is a bit optimistic.

Honestly, I don’t think their going to win the House or Senate, but I’m forced to say that, because if I post my real opinions, the moderators will ban me (they already have me on Post Moderation).

well, then why would you even bother to be on the forum if you can't

[LimoLiberal]

PPP for Mike Levin:

Mike Levin (D): 47
Rocky Chavez (R): 39

Trump approval is 44-55.

http://act.boldprogressives.org/survey/2018polling_ca49/?source=e180224_0349-fin-ca49-inf&recurring=24&amount=10&refcode2=51451&t=3

[King Lear]

PPP for Mike Levin:

Mike Levin (D): 47
Rocky Chavez (R): 39

Trump approval is 44-55.

http://act.boldprogressives.org/survey/2018polling_ca49/?source=e180224_0349-fin-ca49-inf&recurring=24&amount=10&refcode2=51451&t=3

It’s to bad they don’t have more polling of the jungle primary, though, my gut tells me it will be Applegate vs. Chavez. However, just to make sure a Democrat makes it into the runoff, the Democrats should winnow the field down to Applegate and Levin, because those are the only serious candidates.

[Badger]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

Can you explain the limo = andrew from rrh thing? (also what is rrh)

He's user Andrew_1918 there and it's been known for a while. They post the exact same links with the same curt comments like "Hmm... interesting" or "GOP bump" to every poll that shows Republicans doing abnormally well (but never any poll showing Democrats doing well). Oh, and the time stamps are a little too coincidental.

Ever since Andrew has been caught, he's been trying to half-assedly trick other people into believing that he's really a Democrat by making some over-compensating remark once in a blue moon about someone like Linda Belcher or Heidi Heitkamp or what have you.

It's utterly adorable, not to mention quite telling, that win limo liberal, oh, I mean Andrew, gets effectively and very oh, I mean Andrew, gets called out with very very specific evidence showing he's just Richard 1918 from rrh, he utterly duct the accusation and hoped no one would notice. Afterwards in another post he very lamely bakes the moderators to expunge all these damning posts exposing him.

Andrew, come out of the closet. You are apparently a happy little conservative out and about on rrh, so your Troll game here is up. Come out of the closet and just join our happy little world of politics junkies. But do so is yourself, not this lame-ass sock of a concern troll unconvincingly claiming to be a liberal Democrat. Just acknowledge haha it's been fun now let me tell you why I think the Republicans might keep the House and Senate blah blah blah and we can have intelligent and fun discourse and debate.

Until then, this troll action shows you're just a pussy, Andrew. Man up.

[LimoLiberal]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

Can you explain the limo = andrew from rrh thing? (also what is rrh)

He's user Andrew_1918 there and it's been known for a while. They post the exact same links with the same curt comments like "Hmm... interesting" or "GOP bump" to every poll that shows Republicans doing abnormally well (but never any poll showing Democrats doing well). Oh, and the time stamps are a little too coincidental.

Ever since Andrew has been caught, he's been trying to half-assedly trick other people into believing that he's really a Democrat by making some over-compensating remark once in a blue moon about someone like Linda Belcher or Heidi Heitkamp or what have you.

It's utterly adorable, not to mention quite telling, that win limo liberal, oh, I mean Andrew, gets effectively and very oh, I mean Andrew, gets called out with very very specific evidence showing he's just Richard 1918 from rrh, he utterly duct the accusation and hoped no one would notice. Afterwards in another post he very lamely bakes the moderators to expunge all these damning posts exposing him.

Andrew, come out of the closet. You are apparently a happy little conservative out and about on rrh, so your Troll game here is up. Come out of the closet and just join our happy little world of politics junkies. But do so is yourself, not this lame-ass sock of a concern troll unconvincingly claiming to be a liberal Democrat. Just acknowledge haha it's been fun now let me tell you why I think the Republicans might keep the House and Senate blah blah blah and we can have intelligent and fun discourse and debate.

Until then, this troll action shows you're just a pussy, Andrew. Man up.

Wow. Someone had a bad day at home. Hope things are better for you in the future.

[Badger]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

Can you explain the limo = andrew from rrh thing? (also what is rrh)

He's user Andrew_1918 there and it's been known for a while. They post the exact same links with the same curt comments like "Hmm... interesting" or "GOP bump" to every poll that shows Republicans doing abnormally well (but never any poll showing Democrats doing well). Oh, and the time stamps are a little too coincidental.

Ever since Andrew has been caught, he's been trying to half-assedly trick other people into believing that he's really a Democrat by making some over-compensating remark once in a blue moon about someone like Linda Belcher or Heidi Heitkamp or what have you.

It's utterly adorable, not to mention quite telling, that win limo liberal, oh, I mean Andrew, gets effectively and very oh, I mean Andrew, gets called out with very very specific evidence showing he's just Richard 1918 from rrh, he utterly duct the accusation and hoped no one would notice. Afterwards in another post he very lamely bakes the moderators to expunge all these damning posts exposing him.

Andrew, come out of the closet. You are apparently a happy little conservative out and about on rrh, so your Troll game here is up. Come out of the closet and just join our happy little world of politics junkies. But do so is yourself, not this lame-ass sock of a concern troll unconvincingly claiming to be a liberal Democrat. Just acknowledge haha it's been fun now let me tell you why I think the Republicans might keep the House and Senate blah blah blah and we can have intelligent and fun discourse and debate.

Until then, this troll action shows you're just a pussy, Andrew. Man up.

Wow. Someone had a bad day at home. Hope things are better for you in the future.

Actually a rather good day, thank you, but thanks for playing.

But hey, if somehow trying to distract from the fact that it supposedly grown man invests hours a day into a juvenile hobby of trolling a politics website, and somehow wants to clean that's because MY personal life has issues, well, Whatever Gets You Through the Night

[LimoLiberal]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

Can you explain the limo = andrew from rrh thing? (also what is rrh)

He's user Andrew_1918 there and it's been known for a while. They post the exact same links with the same curt comments like "Hmm... interesting" or "GOP bump" to every poll that shows Republicans doing abnormally well (but never any poll showing Democrats doing well). Oh, and the time stamps are a little too coincidental.

Ever since Andrew has been caught, he's been trying to half-assedly trick other people into believing that he's really a Democrat by making some over-compensating remark once in a blue moon about someone like Linda Belcher or Heidi Heitkamp or what have you.

It's utterly adorable, not to mention quite telling, that win limo liberal, oh, I mean Andrew, gets effectively and very oh, I mean Andrew, gets called out with very very specific evidence showing he's just Richard 1918 from rrh, he utterly duct the accusation and hoped no one would notice. Afterwards in another post he very lamely bakes the moderators to expunge all these damning posts exposing him.

Andrew, come out of the closet. You are apparently a happy little conservative out and about on rrh, so your Troll game here is up. Come out of the closet and just join our happy little world of politics junkies. But do so is yourself, not this lame-ass sock of a concern troll unconvincingly claiming to be a liberal Democrat. Just acknowledge haha it's been fun now let me tell you why I think the Republicans might keep the House and Senate blah blah blah and we can have intelligent and fun discourse and debate.

Until then, this troll action shows you're just a pussy, Andrew. Man up.

Wow. Someone had a bad day at home. Hope things are better for you in the future.

Actually a rather good day, thank you, but thanks for playing.

But hey, if somehow trying to distract from the fact that it supposedly grown man invests hours a day into a juvenile hobby of trolling a politics website, and somehow wants to clean that's because MY personal life has issues, well, Whatever Gets You Through the Night

Honestly hope you feel better and can unplug yourself from the vitriol. I know I am trying to do the same.

[Greedo punched first]

The CA Democratic Party failed to endorse a candidate for CA-49.

[Skill and Chance]

Poliquin gonna get BTFO.

https://www.centralmaine.com/2018/02/23/new-poll-finds-trump-unpopular-poliquin-in-tight-race/

Trump at 52% disapproval in ME-2

Interesting.  He won a majority there, didn't he?

[Virginiá]

Poliquin gonna get BTFO.

https://www.centralmaine.com/2018/02/23/new-poll-finds-trump-unpopular-poliquin-in-tight-race/

Trump at 52% disapproval in ME-2

I don't think it was ever appropriate to consider Poliquin safe or even leans R (but I have seen some people thinking so on here), given this district's past performances. Republicans over-performed in Maine in 2016 - their performance in Maine's Congressional elections was their best in over 15 years. They didn't even come close to that 2014.

Interesting.  He won a majority there, didn't he?

51-41 Trump.