2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[GeorgiaModerate]

NEW YouGov/Economist poll:

(2/18-2/20)

Democrats: 43% (+1)
GOP: 35% (-3)

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YouGov has been one of the closer polls on the generic ballot.  I don't think they've had a spread that large since December.

[Virginiá]

That PPP polling suggests the Republicans have made significant gains since November. Patriot Majority had PPP poll some of the districts in November, and look at the changes.


Went from D+12 in CA-25 to D+2
Phillips led in MN-03 by 4 and now leads by 3
Generic D led Frelinghuysen in NJ-11 by 2, Sherill now is down by 2 to Generic R
Generic D led Faso by 6 in NY-19, and now is tied.

Massive R swings. No wonder some House Ds are in panic mode.

Will you delete your account if the House flips?

No? I'll be extremely happy?

I don't really get why you're making so many conclusions and sounding alarms after every poll. Your reactions and prognostications from polls read like you're an on-edge activist in October, not February. Seriously, just calm down already lol

Maybe try posting polls without any commentary for a change, regardless if it is good or bad for Democrats.

[Gass3268]

NEW YouGov/Economist poll:

(2/18-2/20)

Democrats: 43% (+1)
GOP: 35% (-3)

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YouGov has been one of the closer polls on the generic ballot.  I don't think they've had a spread that large since December.

December 17-19 was D+9, so close to this, but still one of Trump's better polls.

[KingSweden]

NEW YouGov/Economist poll:

(2/18-2/20)

Democrats: 43% (+1)
GOP: 35% (-3)

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Nice!

[Doimper]

That PPP polling suggests the Republicans have made significant gains since November. Patriot Majority had PPP poll some of the districts in November, and look at the changes.


Went from D+12 in CA-25 to D+2
Phillips led in MN-03 by 4 and now leads by 3
Generic D led Frelinghuysen in NJ-11 by 2, Sherill now is down by 2 to Generic R
Generic D led Faso by 6 in NY-19, and now is tied.

Massive R swings. No wonder some House Ds are in panic mode.

Will you delete your account if the House flips?

No? I'll be extremely happy?

I don't really get why you're making so many conclusions and sounding alarms after every poll. Your reactions and prognostications from polls read like you're an on-edge activist in October, not February. Seriously, just calm down already lol

Maybe try posting polls without any commentary for a change, regardless if it is good or bad for Democrats.

He's said that he does it to troll and for validation. He's not going to stop his weird schtick.

[LimoLiberal]

NEW YouGov/Economist poll:

(2/18-2/20)

Democrats: 43% (+1)
GOP: 35% (-3)

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Trump's approval is at one of its highest points ever in this poll (-7) but Democrats are performing even better than that on the generic ballot. Interesting.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

NEW YouGov/Economist poll:

(2/18-2/20)

Democrats: 43% (+1)
GOP: 35% (-3)

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It's totally conceivable that even those who approve of Trump might want to vote to put a check to him in Congress to keep him accountable.
Trump's approval is at one of its highest points ever in this poll (-7) but Democrats are performing even better than that on the generic ballot. Interesting.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/966398760732512257

Chavez (R) and Harkey (R) are the top-two even if Jacobs (D) and/or Kerr (D) drop out. The only time Democrats make the top-two is if either Levin (D) or Applegate (D) drops out, than the other advances.

Major panic time for those counting on California flips.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I don't mean to contribute/encourage the paranoia, but a CA-49 poll


EM3 Research (for Flip the 49th)
Feb 12-15 (750 voters, +/- 4.9% MoE)


Generic Democrat: 48%
Generic Republican: 41%
Don't Know: 11%


(After receiving positive candidate information)
Doug Applegate (D):   19%
Rocky Chavez (R):   17%
Diane Harkey (R):   17%
Mike Levin (D):   16%
Kristin Gaspar (R):   9%
Sara Jacobs (D):   7%
Paul Kerr (D):   3%
Christina Prejean (D):   1%
Other/Don’t Know:   10%

(After receiving negative candidate information)
Rocky Chavez (R):   18%
Diane Harkey (R):   18%
Doug Applegate (D):   17%
Mike Levin (D):   13%
Kristin Gaspar (R):   8%
Sara Jacobs (D):   8%
Paul Kerr (D):   2%
Christina Prejean (D):   1%
Other/Don’t Know:   17%

[The Other Castro]

Josh Barro‏ @jbarro
Replying to @aseitzwald
Hmmm... no ballot test without a push, and then "the scope of positive information provided about each candidate was calibrated to consider resources, so Applegate received a limited bio and Prejean received none" ... this sounds like a survey designed to produce this message.

3:30 PM - 21 Feb 2018

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/966409881254289408

[Doimper]

I don't mean to contribute/encourage the paranoia, but a CA-49 poll


EM3 Research (for Flip the 49th)
Feb 12-15 (750 voters, +/- 4.9% MoE)


Generic Democrat: 48%
Generic Republican: 41%
Don't Know: 11%


(After receiving positive candidate information)
Doug Applegate (D):   19%
Rocky Chavez (R):   17%
Diane Harkey (R):   17%
Mike Levin (D):   16%
Kristin Gaspar (R):   9%
Sara Jacobs (D):   7%
Paul Kerr (D):   3%
Christina Prejean (D):   1%
Other/Don’t Know:   10%

(After receiving negative candidate information)
Rocky Chavez (R):   18%
Diane Harkey (R):   18%
Doug Applegate (D):   17%
Mike Levin (D):   13%
Kristin Gaspar (R):   8%
Sara Jacobs (D):   8%
Paul Kerr (D):   2%
Christina Prejean (D):   1%
Other/Don’t Know:   17%

The alternative takeaway from this is that we could see an Applegate vs. Levin general. That would be hilarious, coming after all the hysterics about a possible R vs. R matchup.

[King Lear]

I don't mean to contribute/encourage the paranoia, but a CA-49 poll


EM3 Research (for Flip the 49th)
Feb 12-15 (750 voters, +/- 4.9% MoE)


Generic Democrat: 48%
Generic Republican: 41%
Don't Know: 11%


(After receiving positive candidate information)
Doug Applegate (D):   19%
Rocky Chavez (R):   17%
Diane Harkey (R):   17%
Mike Levin (D):   16%
Kristin Gaspar (R):   9%
Sara Jacobs (D):   7%
Paul Kerr (D):   3%
Christina Prejean (D):   1%
Other/Don’t Know:   10%

(After receiving negative candidate information)
Rocky Chavez (R):   18%
Diane Harkey (R):   18%
Doug Applegate (D):   17%
Mike Levin (D):   13%
Kristin Gaspar (R):   8%
Sara Jacobs (D):   8%
Paul Kerr (D):   2%
Christina Prejean (D):   1%
Other/Don’t Know:   17%

Every Democrat but Applegate needs to drop out, Though my gut tells me that a Democrat (Applegate) will make the runoff (this poll did not list 3 of the Republicans running while it listed all the Democrats running), Democrats need to eliminate the possibility of a R vs. R runoff by winnowing the field down to just Applegate (he’s the strongest Democrat running), because if they can’t flip this seat then their going to be kissing the House goodbye.

[LimoLiberal]

Harris Interactive:

Dems lead 41-36 (D+5)

No prior poll to compare with.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harris Interactive:

Dems lead 41-36 (D+5)

No prior poll to compare with.

Cautionary note: Harris uses an online-only methodology, which is of questionable reliability.  538 rates them at C- with a bias of R+1.5.

[Ebsy]

CA-25: ALG for Caforio (D)

Knight (GOP): 43
Caforio (DEM): 19
Hil (DEM): 10
Phoenix (DEM): 7
Other: 5
Undecided: 7

[The Other Castro]

CA-25: ALG for Caforio (D)

Knight (GOP): 43
Caforio (DEM): 19
Hil (DEM): 10
Phoenix (DEM): 7
Other: 5
Undecided: 7

For reference, the 2016 primary results for CA-25 were:

Steve Knight (R) - 48.3%
Bryan Caforio (D) - 29.0%
Lou Vince (D) - 15.4%
Jeffrey Moffatt (R) - 7.3%

Total R 55.6%, Total D 44.4%

[GeorgiaModerate]

UT-04: Love leads McAdams 49-43.

[Gass3268]

UT-04: Love leads McAdams 49-43.

Nice, Love almost always underperfomers.

[LimoLiberal]

UT-04: Love leads McAdams 49-43.

Strong position for Love. No blue wave in Utah.

[Gass3268]

UT-04: Love leads McAdams 49-43.

Strong position for Love. No blue wave in Utah.

Love always underperforms.

[Gass3268]

A PPP poll for PCCC in KS-03:

Brent Welder (D) 49%
Kevin Yoder (R-i) 42%

[MAINEiac4434]

A PPP poll for PCCC in KS-03:

Brent Welder (D) 49%
Kevin Yoder (R-i) 42%

Nice

[Ronnie]

A PPP poll for PCCC in KS-03:

Brent Welder (D) 49%
Kevin Yoder (R-i) 42%

Kansas does have a unique political situation, but if a Democrat can really lead a non-scandal-plagued incumbent Republican by 7 points in an R+4 district, then we have a pretty big wave on our hands.

[King Lear]

CA-25: ALG for Caforio (D)

Knight (GOP): 43
Caforio (DEM): 19
Hil (DEM): 10
Phoenix (DEM): 7
Other: 5
Undecided: 7

I really hope Bryan Caforio makes the runoff, because he’s by far the best candidate due to the fact he nearly won in 2016.

[Holmes]

Half of Kansas' House delegation being Democratic in 2019 would be interesting.