PA-18 Special Election Prediction

[sverkol]

Saccone by 2-4,i hope i'm wrong.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I’ll say Lamb by less than a percent, though a Saccone win would not surprise me in the least. Either way, Lamb will be in Rothfus’s seat come January

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Saccone 50.1-49.9

[Gass3268]

I was originally thinking Saccone by between 4-5, now I'm thinking Saccone by about 2.

[RogueBeaver]

Saccone by 2-4

[windjammer]

But yes once again whoever is the winner, that won't matter as Lamb will run in Rothfus' district.

[The Other Castro]

Lamb +2

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Lamb +2

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Saccone by 4 or 5.  Keep in mind that a number of polls in the last week ahead of the GA-6 special election showed Ossoff beating Handel, despite the district being clearly R-leaning.  That was a different story, because that was a district with a large number of #NeverTrump Republicans.  PA-18 is a blue-collar, working-class, unionized district--in other words, a Trump stronghold, and one of the regions where his populist, protectionist message went over well and helped get him elected.  Most polls have shown all or nearly all Trump voters showing no regrets about their votes, so I doubt Lamb's chances are as great as the polls suggest (especially considering that they are still using wildly flawed demographic models based on 2008 and 2012, which were anomalies due to the presence of a candidate of color on the ballot for president.)

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Lamb + 2

[Doimper]

Lamb +1.5

[Rhenna]

Saccone 50.1-49.9

This would be so tragic, thankfully Lamb would challenge Rothfus regardless.
Anyways, I think Lamb will win 0-2.

[Dr. MB]

I don't think what happens in Texas has anything to do with what happens in Pennsylvania.

Lamb 49.0%, Saccone 48.3%, Miller 2.7%.

[LimoLiberal]

Might have to revise my prediction - articles from CNN and politico have GOP strategists saying Lamb is going to win. Might be concern trolling a la GA-06, but still will be closer than Saccone +8.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lamb +1.7

[VPH]

Saconne +1.5. National money will deliver, and the GOP is playing the expectations game rn, hoping people will expect a Lamb win.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I don't think what happens in Texas has anything to do with what happens in Pennsylvania.

Lamb 49.0%, Saccone 48.3%, Miller 2.7%.

Yes, trends in TX and the Rust belt have nothing to do with each other; just look at any election in the last 40 years. Texas and Western PA might as well be in different countries. I still think Saccone will wing VERY narrowly due to the partisan tilt of the district, but the GOP shouldn't take that as comforting.

[henster]

Waiting for the classic last minute Trafalgar poll to make my final prediction.

[JGibson]

Lamb by less than 2.

[Ronnie]

I expect an anti-climactic modest 3-5 point Saccone victory

[136or142]

Lamb 50% Saccone 49%

[Brittain33]

I expect an anti-climactic modest 3-5 point Saccone victory

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

*deep breath* Lamb 1.7

That's what pops into my mind.

[kph14]

Lamb 49.7
Saccone 48.8
Libertarian Dude 1.5

[Bidenworth2020]

Waiting for the classic last minute Trafalgar poll to make my final prediction.

oh yes, the gold standard.