2020 - Nikki Haley (R) v. Bernie Sanders (D) v. President Donald Trump (I)

[Burke859]

How would this scenario play out: Democrats nominate Sanders in 2020, traditional Republican voters abandon Trump for Haley in the primaries, and Trump runs for re-election, on his own, without a party in 2020.

I'm thinking that Haley, as the official GOP nominee, would possibly become the choice of the vast majority of Republicans, while also garnering lots of Romney-Clinton white collar independent voters and leaving the Obama-Trump blue collar independent voters to choose between Trump and Sanders.  Sanders of course wins the Democratic base, minus the neoliberals who flirt with Haley.

Here's one possible map that shows how Haley could win.  The normal Republican states in the South and West vote for Haley and give Trump little to no support.  The very liberal states vote Democratic and conservative voters split between Trump and Haley.  Appalachia gives plurality victories to Trump.  Haley wins plurality victories in VA, CO, PA, NJ, NH, and MN by winning massively among college whites and upscale non-whites.  In NJ and MN, she wins only 35% of the vote, but it's a winner take all system.

Haley/Rubio: 277 electoral votes
Sanders/Harris: 209 electoral votes
Trump/Pence: 52 electoral votes

Please post your own possible outcomes.

[Dr. MB]

I doubt Trump would win Ohio, Indiana, or Missouri due to split Republican votes - those would probably go to Sanders. Also, not sure how Sanders loses Minnesota, Nevada, Colorado, NH, or New Jersey.

This would hugely split the GOP ticket and I could see a Sanders 350+ landslide.

[Canis]

Gigantic Sanderslide

438-95-5

[bagelman]

Yea, here's what I think happens:

[NewYorkExpress]

Trump doesn't carry a single state, but his voters tip Indiana, North Carolina and Texas to Sanders, in addition to Sanders winning back Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and Maine CD-1 to allow Sanders to earn an easy victory.

Senator Bernie Sanders/Rep. Joaquin Castro (D) 44% 396 EV
UN Ambassador Nikki Haley/Sen. John Thune (R) 38% 142 EV
President Donald Trump/Vice President Mike Pence (I) 18% 0 EV

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Yea, here's what I think happens:

This, but flip Missouri, Louisiana and Mississippi to Sanders. Dems have a floor of about ~40% and ~38% respectively in MS and LA due to black voters, so Sanders should win these states due to vote splitting. While I just don't see any reason to believe that Trump has some special appeal in Missouri that would allow him to carry it as a third party.

[The Govanah Jake]

I doubt Trump wins that many states due to vote splitting and the Black vote being united under the Democrat in the south, but this would be a Sanders landslide nonetheless.

[CookieDamage]

The fact that you think that two right wingers splitting the right wing vote could still deliver the election to a right-winger and not a popular Democrat is total hackery and delusion.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Sanders/Gillibrand - 422
Trump/Miller - 68
Haley/Rubio - 48

[Kingpoleon]

While initially Trump drops below 10% and it’s neck-and-neck between Haley and Sanders, Sanders begins to surge among young people after making a $95 billion annual guarantee: the federal government will fund all university and college education - all the way for community colleges for everyone who gets into them, and all the way for any public or private university for people who are accepted into the same. This guarantees Sanders a huge portion of young voters and many of their parents.

376: Bernie Sanders/Stacey Abrams - 43.9%
134: Nikki Haley/Ted Cruz - 31.4%
28: Donald Trump/Ben Carson - 20.8%
Others - 3.7%

Sanders wins over 70,000,000 votes, a record-breaking amount. However, Republicans manage to maintain a 49 seat minority by losing North Carolina to Linda Coleman but having Trip Peebles best Doug Jones.

[HomestarSB9]

Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) / Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) - 406 EVs
Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC) / Fmr. Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) - 92 EVs
Pres. Donald Trump (I-NY) / Sec. Sonny Perdue (I-GA) - 40 EVs