New PA Maps In Effect

[Oryxslayer]

Assuming the maps are re-drawn, is the PA-18 Special election going to be held on the new lines or the old lines?

Old. Court specified this. Makes sense, if it was to be held under new lines, partisans on both sides would be looking for ways to change the map in that area to solely influence the winner.

[Gass3268]

Looking at a lot of the different maps out there, my guess is that we end up with a 5-8-5 map (Dem-GOP-Toss Up).

1 - Philadelphia (Dem)
2 - Philadlephia (Dem)
3 - Northwest Pennsylvania (Erie) (GOP)
4 - South Central Pennsylvania (York/Gettysburg) (GOP)
5 - North Central Pennsylvania (State College) (GOP)
6 - Chester (Toss Up)
7 - Delaware (Dem)
8 - Bucks (Toss Up)
9 - West Central Pennsylvania (Johnstown/Indiana) (GOP)
10 - Northeast Pennsylvania (Williamsport) (GOP)
11 - East Central Pennsylvania (Harrisburg) (GOP)
12 - Pittsburgh Suburbs (GOP)
13 - Montgomery (Dem)
14 - Pittsburgh (Dem)
15 - Lehigh Valley (Allentown/Bethlehem) (Toss Up)
16 - Lancaster (GOP)
17 - Wyoming Valley (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre) (Toss Up)
18 - Allegheny County + Pittsburgh Suburbs (Toss Up)

The only question to me is if the court will try to draw a toss up seat in Western PA and I personally think they will and Oryxslayer has shown that it is possible depending on how they draw the Pittsburgh based 14th. Worst case is they don't we get a 5-9-4.

[Brittain33]

So the court's criteria make a competitive 8 and 15 very likely and a competitive 6 and 17 (or call it 11, for the nostalgic) quite possible. How refreshingly democratic. It's almost un-American.

Remembering the 1990s, it's funny how the new 7 and 13 are automatically written off as solid D.

[Nyvin]

If the map gets struck down by the supreme court, what do you guys think of this one I drew? Its very clean, minimizes county splits, and keeps towns whole (except for Philadelphia)
1 (White) D+38 VRA Black district 45% Black 35% White
2 (Green) D+30 VRA Black district 42% black (most whites are republicans in E Philly)
3 (Purple) R+8
4. (Red) R+14
5. (Gold) R+16
6. (Teal) R+2
7. (Gray) D+13
8. (Slate Blue (Bucks Co)) R+2
9. (Cyan) R+22
10. (Pink) R+12
11. (Light Green) R+10
12. (Cornflower Blue (West of Pittsburgh)) R+7
13. (Salmon(MontCo)) D+8
14. (Brown) D+17
15. (Orange) R+3
16. (Lime (Lancaster)) R+8
17. (Dark Gray) R+5
18. (Light Yellow) R+14

So when the court strikes down a map saying it's drawn with too much partisan intent, you draw another map that makes 13R-5D.   Exactly the same representation as they have now.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure the court (or Wolf) won't buy that.

You split metros everywhere (Harrisburg/Cumberland,  Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Allentown/Northampton) and that definitely does not minimize county splits either.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Assuming the maps are re-drawn, is the PA-18 Special election going to be held on the new lines or the old lines?

Old lines.

If the special were to be held under new lines, one person, one vote would have been violated.

[Kevinstat]

Wait how can SCOTUS hear a case that was decided based on the Pennsylvania Constitution, right?

Wouldn't they need to declare the Pennsylvania Constitution unconstitutional to overturn it?

Wasn't that what was done with the state constitutions that banned gay marriage?

Yes, BUT.

For SCOTUS to overturn the PA constitution on this, they wouldn't just need to establish that the constitutiondoesn't ban gerrymandering. It needs to establish that there is a constitutional right to gerrymander.

Which is ridiculous.

The other constitutions were overturned because the court ruled that marriage equality was a constitutional right.

Playing the Devil's advocate here: could SCOTUS rule that the State Supreme Court "legislating from the bench" denied Pennsylvania of a (small r) republican form of Government, thus triggering the "guarantee clause" of the U.S. Constitution?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Still waiting for Limo to claim that this is catastrophic for the Democrats.

[jimrtex]

Assuming the maps are re-drawn, is the PA-18 Special election going to be held on the new lines or the old lines?

This is one of the main claims of the intervenors, who say that it will be confusing to have the special election run on the current lines while candidates are collecting signatures on new lines which probably won't go into effect until about the time of the election at best.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

[Gass3268]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Stay cleared the SCOPA. Now on to the weaker federal argument.

[Landslide Lyndon]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Stay cleared the SCOPA. Now on to the weaker federal argument.

Who is the Democrat who constantly votes with the Republicans?
What's his game?

[henster]

Alito handles emergency appeals for PA and he only needs three other justices to stay. We know Gorsuch and Thomas would be on board the wildcards are Kennedy and Thomas.

[windjammer]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Stay cleared the SCOPA. Now on to the weaker federal argument.

Who is the Democrat who constantly votes with the Republicans?
What's his game?

I think it's Max Bauer. His position was that while this gerrymander was unconstitutional, the current map should remain in place for 2018 as it is too late.

[mencken]

Is there a way the legislature could make the districts so as to make their jobs easier when they have to redraw the map (with one fewer district) in 2022?


Just manipulating numbers in Excel, I am not sure how you can get fewer county splits than this arrangement:

1st: Philadelphia
2nd: Philadelphia
6th: Berks plus part of Chester
7th: Delaware plus part of West Philadelphia
8th: Bucks plus part of Montgomery
13th: Montgomery
15th: Lehigh plus Northampton plus Carbon
16th: Lancaster plus part of Chester
17th: Lackawanna plus Luzerne plus Monroe

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What do you all use to make your maps?

[Strudelcutie4427]

What do you all use to make your maps?

Daves Redistricting App. I only get it to work on internet explorer though. It wont work on chrome, and im not sure about firefox

[Sestak]

Alito handles emergency appeals for PA and he only needs three other justices to stay. We know Gorsuch and Thomas would be on board the wildcards are Kennedy and Thomas.

Kennedy and Roberts are probably not going to support cert for this, but who knows?

[Oryxslayer]

What do you all use to make your maps?

Daves Redistricting App. I only get it to work on internet explorer though. It wont work on chrome, and im not sure about firefox

Firefox extended release for me. Faster then IE, and has automatically a higher memory quota.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

What do you all use to make your maps?

Daves Redistricting App. I only get it to work on internet explorer though. It wont work on chrome, and im not sure about firefox

Firefox extended release for me. Faster then IE, and has automatically a higher memory quota.

Not Safari?

[King Lear]

When do you think SCOTUS will announce whether their going to issue a stay order or not?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

When do you think SCOTUS will announce whether their going to issue a stay order or not?

I don't know, but I'm scared about that too.

[Nyvin]

Here's my quick take on it:



Just a few tidbits-

PA-6:  The Republicans will obviously push to have the Chester district go west into Lancaster, while the Democrats will want to go north into Reading/Berks.   I'm assuming between the courts and Wolf the Democrats will probably prevail on this one.

PA-8: 95% sure this ends up mostly unchanged and remains mostly a tossup district.

PA-12:  I know Butler matches with Allegheny better to make two districts, but that leaves you with Beaver in an incredibly odd spot with either a wrap around with PA-18 or a reach southward from PA-3.   I decided it's better to put Allegheny with Beaver since the difference between Beaver/Butler is only like ~13k people, which can easily be made up elsewhere.

PA-17:  Cartwright actually has a good chance to benefit from all this just due to how picture perfectly Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Monroe counties form a district with hardly any split needed, and all linked together with highways.   The district matches what the SCoPA was directing almost exactly.   This district actually moves slightly more than one PVI to the left from where it is now.

PA-15:  This one isn't quite as good as PA-17, but still Lehigh, Northampton, and most of Carbon form about as good of a compact, neat district as you can expect, and has almost exactly what the court is asking for with their order.

I kinda dislike what PA-10 turned into ("the leftovers" district) but PA-17 is just too beautiful to pass up.

Here's close up of SEPA:




SWPA:



2012/2016 PVI's:

PA-1: D+27.35  (37.1% AA)

PA-2: D+41.06 (52.5% AA)

PA-3: R+7.23

PA-4: R+17.39

PA-5: R+16.92

PA-6: D+1.71

PA-7: D+11.53

PA-8: R+1.17

PA-9: R+22.07

PA-10: R+17.03

PA-11: R+8.04

PA-12: R+3.95

PA-13: D+8.33

PA-14: D+13.72

PA-15: R+0.71

PA-16: R+11.81

PA-17: D+0.26

PA-18: R+13.91

5D - 9R - 4s


I also attempted my best to keep this as "least change" as possible (except obviously SEPA).   The key points for the redistricting will be PA-6 going north or west, PA-15 including all or part of Northampton, and probably PA-17 having all or part of Luzerne.    Other than that not much seems to matter if county lines are respected enough.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

When do you think SCOTUS will announce whether their going to issue a stay order or not?

I don't know, but I'm scared about that too.

It's not happening. The ruling is based on the PA constitution.

[King Lear]

Here's my quick take on it:



Just a few tidbits-

PA-6:  The Republicans will obviously push to have the Chester district go west into Lancaster, while the Democrats will want to go north into Reading/Berks.   I'm assuming between the courts and Wolf the Democrats will probably prevail on this one.

PA-8: 95% sure this ends up mostly unchanged and remains mostly a tossup district.

PA-12:  I know Butler matches with Allegheny better to make two districts, but that leaves you with Beaver in an incredibly odd spot with either a wrap around with PA-18 or a reach southward from PA-3.   I decided it's better to put Allegheny with Beaver since the difference between Beaver/Butler is only like ~13k people, which can easily be made up elsewhere.

PA-17:  Cartwright actually has a good chance to benefit from all this just due to how picture perfectly Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Monroe counties form a district with hardly any split needed, and all linked together with highways.   The district matches what the SCoPA was directing almost exactly.   This district actually moves slightly more than one PVI to the left from where it is now.

PA-15:  This one isn't quite as good as PA-17, but still Lehigh, Northampton, and most of Carbon form about as good of a compact, neat district as you can expect, and has almost exactly what the court is asking for with their order.

I kinda dislike what PA-10 turned into ("the leftovers" district) but PA-17 is just too beautiful to pass up.

Here's close up of SEPA:




SWPA:



2012/2016 PVI's:

PA-1: D+27.35  (37.1% AA)

PA-2: D+41.06 (52.5% AA)

PA-3: R+7.23

PA-4: R+17.39

PA-5: R+16.92

PA-6: D+1.71

PA-7: D+11.53

PA-8: R+1.17

PA-9: R+22.07

PA-10: R+17.03

PA-11: R+8.04

PA-12: R+3.95

PA-13: D+8.33

PA-14: D+13.72

PA-15: R+0.71

PA-16: R+11.81

PA-17: D+0.26

PA-18: R+13.91

5D - 9R - 4s


I also attempted my best to keep this as "least change" as possible (except obviously SEPA).   The key points for the redistricting will be PA-6 going north or west, PA-15 including all or part of Northampton, and probably PA-17 having all or part of Luzerne.    Other than that not much seems to matter if county lines are respected enough.

That’s a great map, it’s clear, compact, largely county-based, and gives both parties a fair chance. I really hope that SCOTUS doesn’t screw it up, and that something like this can be implemented.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's my quick take on it:



Just a few tidbits-

PA-6:  The Republicans will obviously push to have the Chester district go west into Lancaster, while the Democrats will want to go north into Reading/Berks.   I'm assuming between the courts and Wolf the Democrats will probably prevail on this one.

PA-8: 95% sure this ends up mostly unchanged and remains mostly a tossup district.

PA-12:  I know Butler matches with Allegheny better to make two districts, but that leaves you with Beaver in an incredibly odd spot with either a wrap around with PA-18 or a reach southward from PA-3.   I decided it's better to put Allegheny with Beaver since the difference between Beaver/Butler is only like ~13k people, which can easily be made up elsewhere.

PA-17:  Cartwright actually has a good chance to benefit from all this just due to how picture perfectly Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Monroe counties form a district with hardly any split needed, and all linked together with highways.   The district matches what the SCoPA was directing almost exactly.   This district actually moves slightly more than one PVI to the left from where it is now.

PA-15:  This one isn't quite as good as PA-17, but still Lehigh, Northampton, and most of Carbon form about as good of a compact, neat district as you can expect, and has almost exactly what the court is asking for with their order.

I kinda dislike what PA-10 turned into ("the leftovers" district) but PA-17 is just too beautiful to pass up.

Here's close up of SEPA:




SWPA:



2012/2016 PVI's:

PA-1: D+27.35  (37.1% AA)

PA-2: D+41.06 (52.5% AA)

PA-3: R+7.23

PA-4: R+17.39

PA-5: R+16.92

PA-6: D+1.71

PA-7: D+11.53

PA-8: R+1.17

PA-9: R+22.07

PA-10: R+17.03

PA-11: R+8.04

PA-12: R+3.95

PA-13: D+8.33

PA-14: D+13.72

PA-15: R+0.71

PA-16: R+11.81

PA-17: D+0.26

PA-18: R+13.91

5D - 9R - 4s


I also attempted my best to keep this as "least change" as possible (except obviously SEPA).   The key points for the redistricting will be PA-6 going north or west, PA-15 including all or part of Northampton, and probably PA-17 having all or part of Luzerne.    Other than that not much seems to matter if county lines are respected enough.

That’s a great map, it’s clear, compact, largely county-based, and gives both parties a fair chance. I really hope that SCOTUS doesn’t screw it up, and that something like this can be implemented.

Its pretty much my map from page five. This isn't a bad thing though, Pennsylvania has a whole lot of districts that more or less draw themselves, so all fair maps are going to be reasonably similar. The difference between this map and my previous one is that this map places priority on keeping the current districts located reasonably close to their current iterations over county cuts, and my map did the opposite. This map cuts 12 counties, but each district is based in its former location. My two maps only cut 7 counties each, but saw the 9th/12th/18th migrate around a bit as I undid the current map. That is tradeoffs.

Only downside of this map I can see is that the court ordered as few county cuts as possible, and little to now lower division cuts (I'm fairly sure your map cuts philly wards, but that can be fixed). So, if I was the court, I would select my map, even with the moving districts, since it cuts less counties - as per their orders.