New PA Maps In Effect

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Would Cartwright be able to hold his seat if that dave wasserman non partisan map thingy turns out to be the new map?

[IceSpear]

Wait how can SCOTUS hear a case that was decided based on the Pennsylvania Constitution, right?

Wouldn't they need to declare the Pennsylvania Constitution unconstitutional to overturn it?

Wasn't that what was done with the state constitutions that banned gay marriage?

[Nyvin]

Woah, this is huge for PA redistricting precedent:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So this pretty much guarantees PA-8 isn't going to change much since it's already 95% exclusive to Bucks county.

Also obviously, PA-7 is going to be sacrificed to the Dems since Meehan is DOA nowadays.  PA-16 will almost certainly be moved west to fully incorporate Lancaster and Reading will be removed.

Nothing west of Harrisburg really matters all that much, so that basically leaves PA-6 and PA-17 as the open questions for redrawing. 

I'm thinking this ends with PA-7 as safe Dem, PA-6 tilt D, PA-8 remain tossup, and PA-17 might get more Republican. 

[Sestak]

Wait how can SCOTUS hear a case that was decided based on the Pennsylvania Constitution, right?

Wouldn't they need to declare the Pennsylvania Constitution unconstitutional to overturn it?

Wasn't that what was done with the state constitutions that banned gay marriage?

Yes, BUT.

For SCOTUS to overturn the PA constitution on this, they wouldn't just need to establish that the constitutiondoesn't ban gerrymandering. It needs to establish that there is a constitutional right to gerrymander.

Which is ridiculous.

The other constitutions were overturned because the court ruled that marriage equality was a constitutional right.

[Oryxslayer]

Would Cartwright be able to hold his seat if that dave wasserman non partisan map thingy turns out to be the new map?

The best district for Cartwright would be Luzurne + Lakwanna + Monroe, which is ~500 under the 2010 pop count. This seat still voted for Trump by two points less then the current PA-17, and has a CPVI a fraction more democratic then 0, rather then the current R+1. If this district doesn't come into being then there is something wrong.

Also Nate Cohn's map cuts Luzurne in favor of Pike and the Eastern counties, but we just heard from the court that such a cut may no longer be legal, so that map might be voided.

[Nyvin]

Wait how can SCOTUS hear a case that was decided based on the Pennsylvania Constitution, right?

Wouldn't they need to declare the Pennsylvania Constitution unconstitutional to overturn it?

Wasn't that what was done with the state constitutions that banned gay marriage?

That was when there was a national precedent set against prohibiting gay marriage,  it'd be Extremely difficult to set any national precedent for a state's constitution on congressional district maps.

[Gass3268]

Woah, this is huge for PA redistricting precedent:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This should be the law nationwide.

Agreed, but amend it by adding "population or compliance with the Voting Rights Act"

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

If the legislature is smart, they'll craft a compromise with Wolf that sacrifices some districts to Ds and swing status, gives incumbents some predictability, and avoids the courts throwing the doors wide open to a radically redrawn new map.

If Ds are smart they take their chances with the 5-2 Dem court drawing the maps.

Oooh. Has anyone done a D gerrymander of Pennsylvania? I thought that was hard to do.

I've tried, and as far as I can tell it's more a pain then actually difficult.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Would Cartwright be able to hold his seat if that dave wasserman non partisan map thingy turns out to be the new map?

The best district for Cartwright would be Luzurne + Lakwanna + Monroe, which is ~500 under the 2010 pop count. This seat still voted for Trump by two points less then the current PA-17, and has a CPVI a fraction more democratic then 0, rather then the current R+1. If this district doesn't come into being then there is something wrong.

Also Nate Cohn's map cuts Luzurne in favor of Pike and the Eastern counties, but we just heard from the court that such a cut may no longer be legal, so that map might be voided.

That is unfortunate. I would rather cut Luzurne to keep Pike, Wayne, Susquehanna, and Wyoming in PA-17. PA-10 being a Horseshoe shape is ugly.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Hypothetically, this map keeps deviation in Missouri under 500 per District, and only splits 2 Counties.

[Sestak]

Hypothetically, this map keeps deviation in Missouri under 500 per District, and only splits 2 Counties.

Partisan composition?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Hypothetically, this map keeps deviation in Missouri under 500 per District, and only splits 2 Counties.

Partisan composition?

5R-3D.

[IceSpear]

Wait how can SCOTUS hear a case that was decided based on the Pennsylvania Constitution, right?

Wouldn't they need to declare the Pennsylvania Constitution unconstitutional to overturn it?

Wasn't that what was done with the state constitutions that banned gay marriage?

Yes, BUT.

For SCOTUS to overturn the PA constitution on this, they wouldn't just need to establish that the constitutiondoesn't ban gerrymandering. It needs to establish that there is a constitutional right to gerrymander.

Which is ridiculous.

The other constitutions were overturned because the court ruled that marriage equality was a constitutional right.

Good point.

Assuming this holds, Dems' odds of winning the House just went up significantly.

[Brittain33]

For SCOTUS to overturn the PA constitution on this, they wouldn't just need to establish that the constitutiondoesn't ban gerrymandering. It needs to establish that there is a constitutional right to gerrymander.

"Eh, I could see that."

[Greedo punched first]

Kennedy upheld redistricting commissions. It's hard to see what he might do. He indicated in 2004 that he might reconsider these cases, unlike Thomas.

[kph14]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/955526442640605184

crap crap crap crap

I have no faith in SCOTUS.

Attention: LimoLiberal (D?-VA) is concerned.

They didn't do it in Florida and they won't do it here. This is a state issue.

SCOTUS won't do anything here

[pbrower2a]

Wait how can SCOTUS hear a case that was decided based on the Pennsylvania Constitution, right?

Wouldn't they need to declare the Pennsylvania Constitution unconstitutional to overturn it?

Wasn't that what was done with the state constitutions that banned gay marriage?

Yes, BUT.

For SCOTUS to overturn the PA constitution on this, they wouldn't just need to establish that the constitutiondoesn't ban gerrymandering. It needs to establish that there is a constitutional right to gerrymander.

Which is ridiculous.

The other constitutions were overturned because the court ruled that marriage equality was a constitutional right.

Good point.

Assuming this holds, Dems' odds of winning the House just went up significantly.

At least 10D, 8R from 13R, 5D. That is five seats at the least.

[henster]

I think the odds SCOTUS grants stay is 50/50, too many activist judges on the court now. Wouldn't be surprised if Gorsuck had a direct line to Ryan/McConnell.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Another map by Stephen Wolff.

[Sestak]

I think the odds SCOTUS grants stay is 50/50, too many activist judges on the court now. Wouldn't be surprised if Gorsuck had a direct line to Ryan/McConnell.

No way they declare that there's a constitutional right to gerrymander.

This would, by the way, be an entirely new case based on the old one. There isn't really anything to grant a stay on.

[LimoLiberal]

How would Cartwright not benefit? Doesn't he lose Schuykill, where Trump got 70%, in any fair map?

[IceSpear]

Another map by Stephen Wolff.

So it would be like:

5 safe D (PA-01, PA-02, PA-07, PA-13, PA-14)
1 lean D (PA-06)
3 toss up (PA-08, PA-15, PA-17)
1 lean R (PA-12)
2 likely R (PA-03, PA-11)
6 safe R (PA-04, PA-05, PA-09, PA-10, PA-16, PA-18)

Considering how badly Democrats are distributed in PA, this would be a pretty decent map for them. This would be ratings for generic candidates by the way, so no doubt Cartwright would move the 17th toward the Dems.

[Oryxslayer]

Another map by Stephen Wolff.

So it would be like:

5 safe D (PA-01, PA-02, PA-07, PA-13, PA-14)
1 lean D (PA-06)
3 toss up (PA-08, PA-15, PA-17)
1 lean R (PA-12)
2 likely R (PA-03, PA-11)
6 safe R (PA-04, PA-05, PA-09, PA-10, PA-16, PA-18)

Considering how badly Democrats are distributed in PA, this would be a pretty decent map for them. This would be ratings for generic candidates by the way, so no doubt Cartwright would move the 17th toward the Dems.

However it cuts lets see... 15 counties, and probably a philly ward or two judging from a distance. What with the court ordering that these things be considered, this map is probably out of the equation.

[kph14]

If you wanted to, you could make District 14 less Democratic and one of Districts 12 or 18 more Democratic. Just give District 12 some R-leaning suburbs in exchange for the Titanum D inner-city areas

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.