If George Bush ran as a moderate in 1988

[President Johnson]

Poppy Bush ran pretty much as a centrist in 1980, similar to Gerald Ford four years earlier. In 1988, he adopted much for Ronald Reagan's policies (especially on economic and fiscal issues). What if Vice President Bush ran more to the center in 1988 rather than for a third Reagan term? Could he win the primary and what would the map have looked like if nominated in the end?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Bob Dole gets elected

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Bush/Baker - 286
Dukakis/Bentsen - 252

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Bob Dole gets elected

Pretty much this. Pro-choice, “yes, new taxes” George Bush likely would have not made it out of the primary. He still had the edge in New Hampshire, because Bob Dole couldn’t shovel snow, but he faces significant ground to make up among the Norquist crowd.

[Burke859]

George H.W. Bush in 1988 was in a very similar position as McCain was in 2008, and as Hillary was in 2016.  None were able to essentially "resume" their campaign from 8 years earlier because their party had moved past that particular ideology, and because they were essentially picking up the mantle of an elected two-term POTUS and running as his heir, which to some extent tied their hands in terms of transforming their respective parties.

Neither Bush in '88 nor Hillary in '16 could repudiate Reagan or Obama's legacies, respectively, because both Reagan and Obama were well-liked as they were leaving office.  Oddly enough, it would have been far easier for McCain to have run against George W. Bush in 2008 and gone off on a tangent of some sort, but by 2008, Johnny Mac had lost the political skill and verv to mount such a campaign.

But back OT, had George H.W. Bush repudiated Reaganism in 1988, he would have lost the nomination, and had he won the nod and then repudiated it during the general election campaign, he may have spurred a conservative third party candidacy and possibly elected Dukakis(!)

[Kingpoleon]

If he pledged to “reform taxes,” instead of raising them, then there’s a chance that Jack Kemp wouldn’t win the primary. However, I just don’t see it working.

[SingingAnalyst]

George H.W. Bush in 1988 was in a very similar position as McCain was in 2008, and as Hillary was in 2016.  None were able to essentially "resume" their campaign from 8 years earlier because their party had moved past that particular ideology, and because they were essentially picking up the mantle of an elected two-term POTUS and running as his heir, which to some extent tied their hands in terms of transforming their respective parties.

Neither Bush in '88 nor Hillary in '16 could repudiate Reagan or Obama's legacies, respectively, because both Reagan and Obama were well-liked as they were leaving office.  Oddly enough, it would have been far easier for McCain to have run against George W. Bush in 2008 and gone off on a tangent of some sort, but by 2008, Johnny Mac had lost the political skill and verv to mount such a campaign.

But back OT, had George H.W. Bush repudiated Reaganism in 1988, he would have lost the nomination, and had he won the nod and then repudiated it during the general election campaign, he may have spurred a conservative third party candidacy and possibly elected Dukakis(!)

Yeah, maybe something like this:

Dukakis/Bentsen (D) 45% / 268 EV
Bush/Quayle (R) 45% / 263 EV
Paul/Marrou (L) 9% / 7 EV

Dem-controlled house elects Dukakis/Bentsen.

[Metalhead123]

George H.W. Bush in 1988 was in a very similar position as McCain was in 2008, and as Hillary was in 2016.  None were able to essentially "resume" their campaign from 8 years earlier because their party had moved past that particular ideology, and because they were essentially picking up the mantle of an elected two-term POTUS and running as his heir, which to some extent tied their hands in terms of transforming their respective parties.

Neither Bush in '88 nor Hillary in '16 could repudiate Reagan or Obama's legacies, respectively, because both Reagan and Obama were well-liked as they were leaving office.  Oddly enough, it would have been far easier for McCain to have run against George W. Bush in 2008 and gone off on a tangent of some sort, but by 2008, Johnny Mac had lost the political skill and verv to mount such a campaign.

But back OT, had George H.W. Bush repudiated Reaganism in 1988, he would have lost the nomination, and had he won the nod and then repudiated it during the general election campaign, he may have spurred a conservative third party candidacy and possibly elected Dukakis(!)

Yeah, maybe something like this:

Dukakis/Bentsen (D) 45% / 268 EV
Bush/Quayle (R) 45% / 263 EV
Paul/Marrou (L) 9% / 7 EV

Dem-controlled house elects Dukakis/Bentsen.

Ok how does Dukakis win Oklahoma but not win Texas? Dukakis's running mate was a senator from Texas and in OTL Texas voted more democratic than Oklahoma in 88

[SingingAnalyst]

George H.W. Bush in 1988 was in a very similar position as McCain was in 2008, and as Hillary was in 2016.  None were able to essentially "resume" their campaign from 8 years earlier because their party had moved past that particular ideology, and because they were essentially picking up the mantle of an elected two-term POTUS and running as his heir, which to some extent tied their hands in terms of transforming their respective parties.

Neither Bush in '88 nor Hillary in '16 could repudiate Reagan or Obama's legacies, respectively, because both Reagan and Obama were well-liked as they were leaving office.  Oddly enough, it would have been far easier for McCain to have run against George W. Bush in 2008 and gone off on a tangent of some sort, but by 2008, Johnny Mac had lost the political skill and verv to mount such a campaign.

But back OT, had George H.W. Bush repudiated Reaganism in 1988, he would have lost the nomination, and had he won the nod and then repudiated it during the general election campaign, he may have spurred a conservative third party candidacy and possibly elected Dukakis(!)

Yeah, maybe something like this:

Dukakis/Bentsen (D) 45% / 268 EV
Bush/Quayle (R) 45% / 263 EV
Paul/Marrou (L) 9% / 7 EV

Dem-controlled house elects Dukakis/Bentsen.

Ok how does Dukakis win Oklahoma but not win Texas? Dukakis's running mate was a senator from Texas and in OTL Texas voted more democratic than Oklahoma in 88

Not sure, map may need work. It was just a rough sketch of how Dukakis might have won, as Burke859 suggested. Also Bush may not have selected Quayle in this scenario. Too many uncertainties to really create a sophisticated map with any degree of confidence.

[Agonized-Statism]

Vice President George Bush (R-TX) / Senator Dan Quayle (R-IN) ✓
Governor Michael Dukakis (D-MA) / Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX)

Assuming this means a more normal amount of dog whistling.