MO-PPP: McCaskill +1

[Bismarck]

This poll doesn't really show much, seems very skewed. McCaskill should be somewhat worried by this.


Then again, no one seems to have pointed this out: This poll is pre-Greitens scandal.

I don’t see how that could affect this race much at all.

[OneJ]

I mean Remington is a Republican affiliated poster too, but we should just ignore that anyway.

At the end of the day, it's still a tossup race but some of you either don't act like it or just dismiss this poll as trash.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

This poll doesn't really show much, seems very skewed. McCaskill should be somewhat worried by this.


Then again, no one seems to have pointed this out: This poll is pre-Greitens scandal.

I don’t see how that could affect this race much at all.

The only way it might is if Greitens remains in office and is incredibly unpopular by November then he may be a drag on the rest of the ticket. A somewhat related scenario sort of  happened to Republicans in Ohio back in 2006 with an unpopular Governor  negativity affecting the rest of the ticket.

[HAnnA MArin County]

I swear this race brings out the worst in Atlas

[Free Bird]

Notice that she's been stuck at 45 forever though. If Hawley loses it will be his fault. And leading by 1, AKA the MoE's MoE, in a Democratic commissioned push poll, is nothing to gloat about.

[Free Bird]

This poll doesn't really show much, seems very skewed. McCaskill should be somewhat worried by this.


Then again, no one seems to have pointed this out: This poll is pre-Greitens scandal.

I don’t see how that could affect this race much at all.

The only way it might is if Greitens remains in office and is incredibly unpopular by November then he may be a drag on the rest of the ticket. A somewhat related scenario sort of  happened to Republicans in Ohio back in 2006 with an unpopular Governor  negativity affecting the rest of the ticket.

Wait, that's why DeWine got clobbered? Never knew that.

[Xing]

I swear this race brings out the worst in Atlas

Yeah, this. Some people are going to believe that this race is Safe R or D regardless of what the polls say.

[Blackacre]

Tossup --> Tossup

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Notice that she's been stuck at 45 forever though. If Hawley loses it will be his fault. And leading by 1, AKA the MoE's MoE, in a Democratic commissioned push poll, is nothing to gloat about.

The number of people predicting a definite Hawley win >>> those predicting McCaskill

[MaxQue]

This poll doesn't really show much, seems very skewed. McCaskill should be somewhat worried by this.


Then again, no one seems to have pointed this out: This poll is pre-Greitens scandal.

I don’t see how that could affect this race much at all.

The only way it might is if Greitens remains in office and is incredibly unpopular by November then he may be a drag on the rest of the ticket. A somewhat related scenario sort of  happened to Republicans in Ohio back in 2006 with an unpopular Governor  negativity affecting the rest of the ticket.

Wait, that's why DeWine got clobbered? Never knew that.

That and Bush wasn't popular either.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

People who act differently when a push poll like this comes out compared to a regular poll are probably among the people who are not enthusiastic in general, and therefore, less likely to turn out/more likely to stay home.

Considering John Hawley dropped, while Claire McCaskill stayed the same, I think this means that Claire McCaskill voters are more enthused.

[Canis]

Whats wtih Claire staying at 45% in every poll it doesn't look good for her

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ST. Louis Dispatch poll will be better, but great news for the McCaskill camp.

[Free Bird]

ST. Louis Dispatch poll will be better, but great news for the McCaskill camp.

You need to admire androids. Never going off of directive.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The odds are still against her.

[Dr. MB]

Polls before the late summer don’t matter at all. This race is a clear tossup.

[Adam Griffin]

CALLED IT

Now I doubt 25% of the electorate will be 70+ in 2018 midterms. There may be a slight biased against McCaskill in this poll.

Honestly, this might be one of the few remaining states where a Democrat like McCaskill's support could be higher among the oldest voters in a D-friendly midterm than it would be among, say, 45-65 year-olds. This certainly wasn't the case in 2012 but in lower-turnout elections where the most motivated show up, that old residual lean from the 2000s among older voters might reappear.

I am hoping so for sure.

McCaskill does have some residual good will from older voters from her time as state auditor. If we could somehow get heavy youth/black turn out and motivated old school Democrats out she could win.

Shy McCaskill voters.. it is probably a thing.. but I think she will fall short.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ST. Louis Dispatch poll will be better, but great news for the McCaskill camp.

You need to admire androids. Never going off of directive.

This race is no more than a tossup, not Lean R

[King Lear]

My official rating for this race is Likely Republican, McCaskill will only win reelection if Democrats are winning a Senate majority and that won't happen unless the stock market crashes (it just hit a new record high of 26,000 this week).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We'll see about that.

[Crumpets]

Better than I would have expected, I suppose, but nowhere near enough to make me feel happy about the state of this race. I'm pretty convinced if the Democrats lose one seat in 2018, it will be Missouri.

[Canis]

Someone put this poll in the average

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Why does Peter Kinder not want to run for governor? I thought he was quite popular in Missouri, and he'd have good chances of beating McCaskill.

[jamestroll]

I swear this race brings out the worst in Atlas

Not trying to be concern trolling here at all.

But I thought about this and I think I have come up with the answer.

Of the Trump State Democrats,

Baldwin, Stabenow and Casey seem secure.

Nelson seems a bit dicey and it could end up as a financial headache for dems if scott stays competitive but overall Nelson is the favorite.

Manchin has his own personal brand and while I think he is not going to landslide he should win by 5 to 8 points.

Donnelly has always polled popular recently and may be hard to knock off.

Heitkamp has held up surprisingly well and could win the contest by double digits.

Tester will face a competitive contest but is not striking anyone as vulnerable.

For democratic pick up opportunities:

Nevada is almost a likely Democratic pick up and Arizona is is tilting to a democratic pick up. Tennessee seems like a bridge to far.

So that leaves Missouri...

This is the contest from one perspective will save the GOP majority and from another will deny the Democrats a majority in the US Senate. Another candidate could have saved this seat for Democrats.

And even I do not believe McCaskill will hold on in the end. This leads me to believe the GOP will retain the Senate.

Still the fact that a year ago everyone was saying she would lose by 20+ points is funny in hindsight.

[MarkD]

Why does Peter Kinder not want to run for governor? I thought he was quite popular in Missouri, and he'd have good chances of beating McCaskill.

He did run for governor - in 2016 - and came in third place in the Republican primary out of four candidates who ran. I think you may have meant why does he not want to run for Senator, and if that's what you meant, I would say that his poor showing in 2016 gubernatorial primary leads him to be circumspect about running for anything again. Also, of the three times he was elected Lt. Gov., he never got above 50.00%.