CA-SurveyUSA: Feinstein 34, Kalemkarian 6, de Leon in fourth (user search)
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  CA-SurveyUSA: Feinstein 34, Kalemkarian 6, de Leon in fourth (search mode)
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Author Topic: CA-SurveyUSA: Feinstein 34, Kalemkarian 6, de Leon in fourth  (Read 2731 times)
I知 not Stu
ERM64man
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« on: January 10, 2018, 06:55:23 PM »
« edited: January 10, 2018, 08:57:29 PM by ERM64man »

New California poll. I added it to Wikipedia.
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I知 not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2018, 07:05:08 PM »

De Leon is in fourth, but there are many undecideds.
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I知 not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2018, 07:07:36 PM »
« Edited: January 10, 2018, 07:13:17 PM by ERM64man »

A candidate could theoretically finish second in a jungle primary with 6% in a race with at least 30 candidates. It isn't an open seat race. This poll is the first with more than just Feinstein, de Leon, and "others." Polling California is difficult because of the large population.
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I知 not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2018, 08:56:54 PM »

Feinstein has 49% support of all decided voters, de Leon has 6%.
No. This poll shows Tim Kalemkarian (R) in second with 6%. Patrick Little (R), Steven Schrader (R), and Caren Lancona (R) in third with 5%. De Leon is shown in fourth with 4%. 30% are undecided.
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I知 not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2018, 09:01:22 PM »

You either have to be Rochambeau or OC/Da-Jon's literate brother.
Read the poll. This poll shows 5 Rs and 8 Ds. 9 Ds counting Michael Eisen (I). This might indicate a split Democratic vote.
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I知 not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2018, 11:13:03 PM »

Is a sexual harassment scandal hurting his poll numbers?
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I知 not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2018, 12:17:38 AM »

It's definitely better to include all the candidates then to put everyone aside from DeLeon/Feinstein into an "other" basket. But still, I highly doubt DeLeon has only 4% support.

And neither is Feinstein at 34%. Once the undecideds are removed, you get more realistic figures. Feinstein at 49% and De Leon at 6%.
Where would Kalemkarian be without the undecideds?
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I知 not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2018, 12:27:11 AM »

D vs. D races are more likely in open seat races. Many CA safe D House races are D vs. R when an incumbent doesn't retire.
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I知 not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2018, 11:51:04 PM »

So much for de Leon being the resistance. Alison Hartson is second with AA voters.
Hartson will not finish second in the primary. De Leon is the only Democrat who could face Feinstein, unless Tom Steyer gets in.
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I知 not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2018, 02:09:41 AM »
« Edited: January 12, 2018, 02:11:23 AM by ERM64man »

So much for de Leon being the resistance. Alison Hartson is second with AA voters.
Hartson will not finish second in the primary. De Leon is the only Democrat who could face Feinstein, unless Tom Steyer gets in.
You know that for sure? There's lots of time until the primary heats up.
Unless a Republican finishes second, de Leon advances.
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I知 not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #10 on: January 15, 2018, 07:34:25 PM »

It's definitely better to include all the candidates then to put everyone aside from DeLeon/Feinstein into an "other" basket. But still, I highly doubt DeLeon has only 4% support.

And neither is Feinstein at 34%. Once the undecideds are removed, you get more realistic figures. Feinstein at 49% and De Leon at 6%.
Where are you getting these numbers from? Am I missing something?
Removing the undecided voters from the poll.
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